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Exercise hand with J-J.

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  1. GhettoFabolous GhettoFabolous is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 3:29pm) in reply to GODSHAMGOD

    gotta do ur HW son....DB his opponents....they are horrific....this is a FOLD.
     1

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  2. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 3:41pm) in reply to spectrefax

    True the details are different but the core point is: Poker skill is about finding edges, and edges are precious. You aren't really on the bubble yet with more spots than the money left before the money, just getting close. If you aren't playing this, knowing you are in the lead vs. AK as given for the excersize, you are the one stacking off to bubble aggression not the one accumulating - bad news.

    With 2300+9047 in and 9047 to call and you know for sure you are an 11/10 favorite how can you possibly fold ever? it like a 40% overlay to the drawing odds that are already positive - an easy never fold!

    On the other hand if you know he has AK why didn't we just push and make him put his chips in bad on a call and mostly chop the blinds small as they are at this point?

    In the excersize as given: You JJ - him AK both known to you - auto push all day long and give him a call/fold choice.
  3. GODSHAMGOD GODSHAMGOD is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 3:41pm) in reply to GhettoFabolous

    OK, assuming you are correct, how big of an egde do you need to call off here?

    I think in general players overestimate their edge over other players. I guess I have much to learn, But I am calling in this exact scenario ALL DAY.
  4. Damage1 Damage1 is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 3:42pm) in reply to GhettoFabolous

    this is a call w/ JJ

    edit, especially if he has AK and AQ. you dont pass up these edges. this is a terrible "exercise"
  5. TheConArtist TheConArtist is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 3:48pm) in reply to GODSHAMGOD

    I don't care how bad the villains are this is too big an edge to pass up.

    If you had Ako in this situation and you caught a glimpse of his monitor in the PCA lobby for example, and he had 56s, would you call?
  6. mbardsen mbardsen is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 3:51pm) in reply to spectrefax

    Calling 9072 to win 11522 => 44.05% needed for +EV

    Against AK/AQ you are like 56%!

    Super easy call for monster stack!

    Top 3 is what counts, everything else is pointless.
  7. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 4:20pm) in reply to TheConArtist

    Being a an 11/10 favorite is good but the real issue in this spot as I see it is the 2300 overlay. Thats about a 40% overlay to the drawing odds, assuming they are 50/50 and even better for the 11/10 truth. This makes not even close - you must call.
  8. rivverkiller rivverkiller is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 4:33pm) in reply to mbardsen

    Your chipstack really isn't that large, esoecially once the blinds hit the next level. One bluff getting picked off is going to set you back to push fold. Winning this flip will probably guarantee you a final table, and it will give you lot's of freedom on the bubble. Given his range is AQ/AK I snap call here.

    *Edit* Thought this was on Fulltilt, changed my analysis
     
  9. hawks44bball hawks44bball is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 4:37pm) in reply to rivverkiller

    why are we factoring in another sites ante sizes?
  10. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 4:44pm) in reply to spectrefax

    Some very interesting replies.

    Here is what ended up happening...

    I decided that given villans range and my read that he would not make such a gross over shove with a higher pair and that I was likely a slight favorite vs his range and that a large stack would be extremely valuable to me with the bubble approaching, I called.

    I think only against the nittiest of players is this ever a fold.

    pokerstars GAME #15053588952: TOURNAMENT #76282161, $20+$2 HOLD'EM NO LIMIT - LEVEL VII (150/300) - 2008/02/04 - 12:30:20 (ET)
    Table '76282161 5' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 1: spectrefax (9972 in chips)
    Seat 2: budds22 (2471 in chips)
    Seat 3: loser918 (10620 in chips)
    Seat 4: PokerOptimal (3000 in chips)
    Seat 5: robant (980 in chips)
    Seat 6: dmmberry (1933 in chips)
    Seat 7: BARBARIAAN (10295 in chips)
    Seat 8: bertizz (10651 in chips)
    spectrefax: posts the ante 25
    budds22: posts the ante 25
    loser918: posts the ante 25
    PokerOptimal: posts the ante 25
    robant: posts the ante 25
    dmmberry: posts the ante 25
    BARBARIAAN: posts the ante 25
    bertizz: posts the ante 25
    BARBARIAAN: posts small blind 150
    bertizz: posts big blind 300
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to spectrefax [Jh Jc]
    spectrefax: raises 600 to 900
    budds22: folds
    loser918: folds
    PokerOptimal: folds
    robant: folds
    dmmberry: folds
    BARBARIAAN: raises 9370 to 10270 and is all-in
    bertizz: folds
    spectrefax: calls 9047 and is all-in
    *** FLOP *** [2h 2s 8s]
    *** TURN *** [2h 2s 8s] [Qh]
    *** RIVER *** [2h 2s 8s Qh] [5h]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    BARBARIAAN: shows [Ah Qd] (two pair, Queens and Deuces)
    spectrefax: shows [Jh Jc] (two pair, Jacks and Deuces)
    BARBARIAAN collected 20394 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 20394 | Rake 0
    Board [2h 2s 8s Qh 5h]
    Seat 1: spectrefax showed [Jh Jc] and lost with two pair, Jacks and Deuces
    Seat 2: budds22 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 3: loser918 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: PokerOptimal folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: robant folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: dmmberry (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 7: BARBARIAAN (small blind) showed [Ah Qd] and won (20394) with two pair, Queens and Deuces
    Seat 8: bertizz (big blind) folded before Flop
     
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  11. jjgoldy5 jjgoldy5 is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 4:51pm) in reply to spectrefax

    Given the top heavy payout structures in these tournaments, I would call.

    A 90% chance of making the final table if you double makes this a call in a tournament where 90% of the prizepool is paid out at the final table.

    There are a lot of arguments for folding and for calling, however.

    You are much better than the field and can continue to accumulate chips, and that is certainly a must to take into consideration. Anyone remember when Prahlad Friedman folded his AK in a blind battle late in the WSOP ME? He didnt want to race because he thought he could outplay the field (and he was on the wrong side of the race if it was a race).

    However, the +EV gained by getting a huge stack capable of terrorizing the money bubble and the final table bubble should enable you to further your chip accumulation abilities as the blinds go up. Like I said, the tipping point for me is the top heavy payout nature of these tournaments, and that alone makes this a must call.
     
  12. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 4:55pm) in reply to Damage1

    How is it 'terrible' ?

    Assuming your opponents are letting you steal chips with 0 opposition...how much equity in a race situation is worth sacrificing here?
     
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  13. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 5:06pm) in reply to spectrefax

    Certainly conceeding a spot with a 40% pot odds overlay and a chance to be the clear chip leader and get a lock on a spot at the the final table is to much to sacrifice. Not to mention letting him chip up off 10% of you on pure aggression and a lesser hand? Come on play some poker here!
  14. Tsupa Tsupa is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 5:21pm) in reply to spectrefax

    http://www.pocketfives.com/BB1E3857-...8697C2063.aspx

    obv call with the equity in the pot, and you know that obv IMO

    I'd bet a 6 pack of Mr Pibb that we'd never have seen this post if the river card was a Jack
  15. spectrefax spectrefax is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 5:25pm) in reply to saukendar

    I think people are misunderstanding - I'm not advocating a fold in this spot. The discussion is based on how much equity people are willing to give up in a race situation in exchange for the ability to continue to abuse the remaining players to chip up.

    Perhaps my hand above is a bad example.
     
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  16. 3kingme3 3kingme3 is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 5:26pm) in reply to spectrefax

    im very far from a nitty player but with 30 BBs the i snap fold even if i know he has AK AQ
  17. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 5:28pm) in reply to spectrefax

    Oh well, little or none. How many more times to double up before you have all the chips?
    "Using the same equation as above, it turns out that we would take any edge greater than 48.63 percent. Yes, that's right. I just made the argument that very good players should actually take slightly negative EV situations early in a tournament, because if they win the hand, they get to use their skill with their new stack. And that's more important than waiting around for a slightly better situation - much more important. Have you seen a lot of successful players using the "get chips or go broke" strategy early? This is part of the reason why."
  18. JLucky34 JLucky34 is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 5:58pm) in reply to TheConArtist

    take the edge and bully every1 to death when you win

    else, start another 180 (since spec has probably more than 1 going at a time)

    you can't fold here if you know you have that edge, sorry no other answer

    gl
  19. adam_mc adam_mc is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 6:17pm) in reply to 3kingme3

    With JJ here and knowing for certain he has AQ/AK you have to call.

    The dead money plus the fact you are "so much better than everybody else," means getting these chips makes you a lock for top 3.

    30 bbs is not a stack deep enough to be outplaying people.

    Raise pre, get flatted by bb, miss the board, cbet, get c/r and have to fold.

    Raise pre get shoved on.

    Raise pre get shoved on.

    Blinds go up to 200/400.

    Now you have <15 bbs. At this point is incorrect to be opening without the intention of calling a shove.

    Since you feel you are so superior, you can get the stack to win by calling here knowing you are 56% to win and that there is ~1kish in dead money out there.

    That is why you have to call.

    ALso to who posted taking coinflips in the early stages of a tournament, this isn't really the early stages.
  20. AbstraktPB AbstraktPB is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 6:18pm) in reply to 3kingme3

    I call this(easily), if I KNOW he has AQ/AK every time, it's not like you're deep enough to wait for AA vs KK against another bigstack (extreme but ok). I think personally my equity from having a big stack in this situation is so much greater it's an easy call for me. It's just too easy for one or two steals to go wrong, fold through two orbits, have the blinds go up and be down to 13bb's. I think you have to call unless your a super nit or playing above your BR, but for me this is an easy call chip and money wise.
  21. ChuckSty ChuckSty is offline

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    Feb 4th, 2008 (2/4/2008 6:25pm) in reply to AbstraktPB

    i think folding in this exercise would be terrible. with the chips already in the pot your equity in the hand has to be well over 60%. not to mention how valuable having a mondo stack will be.
     1
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