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Final Table Donkament hand WWUD?

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  1. dino_nothing dino_nothing is offline

    Bath
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 132
    Joined: Feb 06

    Feb 5th, 2008 (2/5/2008 9:24am)

    We currently have an M of 18.8 and we’re chip leader with 8 remaining at the final table, top 3pay something like 1350/850/600 8th pays 140.

    This is the only table I have open and have been concentrating since 5 tables out so have a good line on most players tendencies.

    We don’t really like our table draw at all. The most winningest player at the table (besides ourselves) is neverwright he’s to our right but is in shove fold mode so we’re not too concerned about him yet. So far so good, but directly to my left are 1stAir and the next ‘best’ player Petit. These are both savvy and tricky and prone to re-pop late position steals and as such have been constricting our late positions steals somewhat, both at the final table and from two tables out.

    MccClaud (three to our left and villain in this hand) is fairly chipped up and is someone I’ve labelled ‘rich donk’ he has an average buy-in of $70 (4x higher than this tourney) and an roi of -70%. Whilst it’s possible he’s a cash stud, he doesn't appear to be in tournaments. He re-popped us a couple of orbits ago when we open for 6k with K-Q and he moved in for 33 total and we folded. He has since knocked a player out to chip up.

    The rest of the table is made up of three players with whom I’ve only played with at the final table. From looking on OPR Ziuler and Don Toni are big losers, Jdawg is breakeven. In short we have mostly big stacks and good players to our left and mostly bad players and shorter stacks to our right. Meh.

    Then this hand came up

    *********** # 267 **************
    pokerstars Game #15064947653: Tournament #76066926, $15.00+$1.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1500/3000) - 2008/02/04 - 21:05:33 (ET)
    Table '76066926 19' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 2: ziuler (28495 in chips)
    Seat 3: Jdawg1143 (48390 in chips)
    Seat 4: don_toni222 (86776 in chips)
    Seat 5: neverwright (38380 in chips)
    Seat 6: dino1980 (124298 in chips)
    Seat 7: 1stAir (95446 in chips)
    Seat 8: Petit (44005 in chips)
    Seat 9: MccClaud (74210 in chips)
    ziuler: posts the ante 300
    Jdawg1143: posts the ante 300
    don_toni222: posts the ante 300
    neverwright: posts the ante 300
    dino1980: posts the ante 300
    1stAir: posts the ante 300
    Petit: posts the ante 300
    MccClaud: posts the ante 300
    Petit: posts small blind 1500
    MccClaud: posts big blind 3000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to dino1980 [6h 6d]
    ziuler: folds
    Jdawg1143: folds
    don_toni222: folds
    neverwright: folds
    dino1980: raises 6000 to 9000
    1stAir: folds
    Petit: folds
    MccClaud: raises 64910 to 73910 and is all-in
    dino1980: ??

    If we call and win we have 207208 (out of 540,000 and IMO a lock to make top 3 where a potential deal may be discussed)
    If we call and lose we have 50088 and will be 5/8 with about an M of 7.5
    If we fold we have 118298 and are 1/8 with an M of 17.9
    I think this guy moves in fairly wide here: QQ-55 A-9s+ K-Qs, A-Jo+ K-Qo - i've discounted A-A and K-K as I'm fairly sure he doesn't shove them in this spot.
    Against that range we’re 44% (anyone think i'm way off on the ranges?)

    Assume we never fold:
    So roughly 4.5/10 times we gain 82910 (373095)
    And 5.5/10 times we lose 68210 (375155)

    And if I’ve done my sums right we make a loss of 2060 every time we make the play. Of course if we fold we know that we make a net loss of 9000.

    So it seems calling is correct (my math could be way off), but I still lean towards a fold in spots like this, even though I know top three is where the money is at.

    Taking everything into account what do you do in this spot? Does anyone think this is clearcut?
  2. triggathree triggathree is offline

    San Diego, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,638
    Joined: Sep 05

    Feb 5th, 2008 (2/5/2008 9:32am) in reply to dino_nothing

    open for less - fold
     
  3. CalBandGreat CalBandGreat is offline

    Irvine, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,887
    Joined: Dec 06

    Feb 5th, 2008 (2/5/2008 9:42am) in reply to dino_nothing

    Your range seems like a accurate good one given your description of the player. Against that range you are just barely getting the right price to call and a call is probably slightly +cEV, but I would still fold in order to preserve your stack size. If you fold you still have some control over the table as the big stack, but if you call and lose you only have about 2 rounds where you have some re-raising fold equity and if you don't find a good spot in the first 2 orbits then you all you can do is open push. Also if his range is just a little bit tighter, which I'm sure is possible, then it quickly becomes a -cEV call.
    I think you are thinking about this hand in the right way and I don't think it is clearcut, as I'm sure some people will recommend a call, which is not that horrible, especially if you were to think that you don't have a skill edge over the field. But with a skill edge over the field, it is much better to fold and give yourself the opportunity to steal more and get your chips in, in a better spot.
     
  4. CalBandGreat CalBandGreat is offline

    Irvine, CA
    United States

    Posts: 1,887
    Joined: Dec 06

    Feb 5th, 2008 (2/5/2008 9:47am) in reply to dino_nothing

    Yeah I would open for less as well, usually 8,000.
     
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