I have been on a big downswing in the last two months, so getting a good in score was important to me in this tournament.
I am on the final table of the 8$ rebuy at stars and I am chipleader but not by much.
The stacks are shallow, it's a turbo, so lots of push folding going on.

There are 8 players left, First prize is about 9K, 8th spot pays 1K.

I get dealt AKo in 4th position, first 3 players fold to me and I raise.
Now the SB 3bets me and by doing so puts in 30% of his stack.
He has been fairly active but this looks like a big hand to me.

My plan starting this hand was to jam to a reraise and to call if other players would rejam all-in.
In this particular case I think jammin is almost a no brainer but ...
When I jam and lose the hand I am crippled and probably go out 8th.
When I fold, I make a huge nitty fold but will avoid a coin flip at this stage and still have a very good stack size.
Also there are a few small stacks that will probably bust soon which will mean an significant jump in prize money.
Also like said considering my downswing a good score is more important to me than normal.

All things considered would you still always jam here?

Seat 1: SB (2511367 in chips)
Seat 2: BB (2793979 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG (2435314 in chips)
Seat 4: POS2 (1430660 in chips)
Seat 6: POS3 (1425667 in chips)
Seat 7: Hero (3039169 in chips)
Seat 8: POS5 (795076 in chips)
Seat 9: POS6 (554768 in chips)
SB: posts the ante 15000
BB: posts the ante 15000
UTG: posts the ante 15000
POS2: posts the ante 15000
POS3: posts the ante 15000
Hero: posts the ante 15000
POS5: posts the ante 15000
POS6: posts the ante 15000
SB: posts small blind 75000
BB: posts big blind 150000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Kd As]
UTG: folds
POS2: folds
POS3: folds
Hero: raises 187500 to 337500
POS5: folds
POS6: folds
SB: raises 412500 to 750000
BB: folds
Hero:

Shouldnt fold here but I understand your dilemma... I guess you should have just shipped it pre or folded to keep yourself away from this pickle. But as played you have to reshove, some people will 3bet fold from a sub 20bb stack in a turbo, he might have AT and be trying to look stronger, or he could have AQs and think he has to sucker you in.

If you want to "guarantee" 5th place money, then just fold pre, dont bleed chips by R/F AK

Im raising to induce the exact action you got.

What 88XIN88 said.. you gotta play fearless keep making the right moves you will be out your downswing mate.

Keep your chin up

4bet shove, your equity with this hand is too high vs everything.

 

Originally Posted by bonflizubi

agree with kevmode- well thought out. Also, it's play to win time, can't play scared.

Tx for all the comments guys, that really helps me. It just is difficult sometimes to pull the trigger even when you know you have to! Being fearless is key to winning tournaments.
It is something I have to work on in my game.

I dont think folding AK from sb 3bet is that bad... he could easily have aa/kk and have u crushed... I think if he had AK or AQ himself he would have shoved with his stack size and his loose(ish) image. Honestly think youre flipping 80% of the time when he shows up with TT,JJ,QQ after u shove and he calls. But AA/KK is never shoving, always 3betting...

what happened?

in a normal tourney 20bb is considered as a kinda small stack. but here he's the CL with 20bb. agree that AK in the hijack just cant be a fold there, but there are a lot of spots u should rather play carefully cause of ICM and stuff.

another question: let's say we know that players in such a tourney will just jam AQ and worse and just raise with JJ+ to induce, isnt this a fold then? im far from a nit, but unless i feel like that villain is capable of making moves or sees me as agressive and plays back a lot i feel like im flipping in the best case here. never folded in such a spot, just kinda understand OPs concern.

and let's say u chipped up a lot by just raising and stealing the blinds with complete air, now u get a hand but get action from such a bigstacked nitty player. do u think it's a fold then, since u can just keep chipping up with steals?

if your going to fold AK in this spot, you might as well fold it preflop.

I am no ICM buff, but r/f here feels like a leak which in turn could be caused by the downswing. If you were not on a downswing would you even be thinking about it? I alluded to this in another thread but BR management is key here....always play to win and play optimally, make decisions and fuck results.

Not always easy to do especially when the BR needs some much needed help so I can understand and have been there many times.

glgl

Peace

 

Originally Posted by iPlayTourneys

Really like your thought process... We need to know all pay-outs and then do some ICM on it. A while back i wrote and article, i think i posted it on P5s. Based on this we can make a math based decision. So thats up to the OP to follow the article and do some research. post it here and I will look at it if you like.

Searched: http://www.pocketfives.com/f7/icm-101-a-613488/

However, this is only based on the actual numbers. Excluding skill, tournament speed etc.

I can see comments for both plays, folding and jamming. However, AQ is a fold here unless we know him to be capable of being light here (but w/o reads i would think this should be a fold, based on ICM..) and AK and JJ+ is def. a shove here.

But do the numbers and take a look yourself.

this article is great! i just read it but gonna read it again when i have more time. i suck at the icm stuff. as far as i understood i just need to pick some hands and do the math and will get a feel for these situations right? or do players do all the math in game? i mean sometimes if i watch some milly replay some players are taking a very long time to act, think it's not unlikely that they're doing stuff like this?!

 

Originally Posted by Pick6man

I am no ICM buff, but r/f here feels like a leak which in turn could be caused by the downswing. If you were not on a downswing would you even be thinking about it? I alluded to this in another thread but BR management is key here....always play to win and play optimally, make decisions and fuck results.

Not always easy to do especially when the BR needs some much needed help so I can understand and have been there many times.

glgl

Peace

we dont have to ask ourselves many questions in this hand. the only question is: will he EVER have AQ or worse? if the answer is no then this looks like a fold. i noticed that in lower buy in tourneys there are very few players who play back. there's always like one guy who does this, the rest just looks at their cards and they dont really care what range u are raising with or if they crush ur raising range with their hand. there are also many players who dont understand that they are in push fold mode with these stacks. they look at all the other 5-10bb stacks and think they're in an awesome position with 15bb. i really doubt that a standard LS plyer will make that raise with AQ or worse to induce a shove from worse instead of just getting it in. i tend to underestimate LS players. since they reached the ft i guess they're not that bad, but i really think we should find a fold once in a while in similar spots.

i gonna post a hand from another thread, where a player questioned a hand i was involved in on the SM FT. in this thread im the villain. i had an ABI of 11 back then and was pretty new to poker.

'Guy is clearly a strong player but when i saw this bust-out hand on the replay of last week's Million FT i thought yikes. Looks like a fold with stacks as they are, but maybe I'm being results oriented. i guess if we think 4-bettor is ever folding it changes a lot.

4-bettor had been playing pretty tag the whole FT. original raiser folds QQ.

Payouts are:
232k
194
123
83
66

opinions?

(i had to mess around a bit with the converter to get it to work, but the pot should be bigger preflop because of antes)

Poker stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200000/t400000 Blinds - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Randers (BTN): t13113863 32.78 BBs
FightnIrishh (SB): t23828134 59.57 BBs
RedIceRap (BB): t13136959 32.84 BBs
Peetoon (UTG): t20901216 52.25 BBs
trionojnika (CO): t10919828 27.30 BBs

Pre Flop: (t600000)
1 fold, trionojnika raises to t800000, Randers raises to t2049999, 1 fold, RedIceRap raises to t4789789, 1 fold, Randers raises to t13073863 all in, RedIceRap calls t8284074

Flop: (t27147726) 2 2 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t27147726) A (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t27147726) K (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t27147726
Randers shows K A (two pair, Aces and Kings)
RedIceRap shows A A (a full house, Aces full of Deuces)
RedIceRap wins t27347726
(Rake: t-200000)'

guys like mement_mori said this is never a fold with AK. but i think this is like the easiest fold in the world since my range is KK+ only. the OR was very agro and there's zero chance i put him on QQ. 3bettor was very tight/card dead and got married to his hand there. i prolly would have made the same play after not getting hands and seeing 3-, 4- and 5-bets non stop on this very agro table. today i prolly wouldve made the same play with my hand since people think im capable of everything now, back then i wished i just shoved it in pre to look a bit weaker, especially cause i thought that there's zero chance villain 2 will fold because he played like one hand so far when he call a 12bb shove or so with AK. i just post this hand cause i feel like too many people say 'yo we have AK how could we possibly fold?', but i mean, if a player *basicly shows u his aces after shoving 100bb preflop u also gonna fold ur kings or not? sure stacks are not that deep in my hand but i gonna calculate it myself tomorrow as the first exercise with my range being KK+.

edit: *not 'basicly shows u aces', i mean shows his aces in a live game.