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First hand of Final Table...-EV with AK

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  1. NitroHUN NitroHUN is offline

    Siófok
    Hungary

    Posts: 22
    Joined: May 08

    Mar 17th, 2009 (3/17/2009 6:19pm)

    I went on to the final table in the party poker 6$ freezeout. The stacks are REALLY short, but I'm around avarage with 13 BB's. On the first hand this happened:

    ***** Hand History for Game 7893945730 *****
    NL Texas Hold'em Trny:44806425 Level:15 Blinds-Antes(4 000/8 000 -200) - Tuesday, March 17, 12:20:04 EDT 2009
    Table $2k Gtd (1639738) Table #1 (Real Money)
    Seat 8 is the button
    Total number of players : 10
    Seat 5: AlexPok83 ( 277,298 )
    Seat 7: Balteatus ( 39,968 )
    Seat 4: Kaeptnhuck ( 126,558 )
    Seat 6: NitroHungary ( 99,236 )
    Seat 10: Skyline0301 ( 168,075 )
    Seat 3: Womanarse ( 125,438 )
    Seat 2: master_quad ( 188,510 )
    Seat 8: maxmueck ( 39,810 )
    Seat 1: mbourke888 ( 66,949 )
    Seat 9: trapdoor777 ( 80,158 )
    Trny:44806425 Level:15
    Blinds-Antes(4 000/8 000 -200)
    mbourke888 posts ante [200]
    master_quad posts ante [200]
    Womanarse posts ante [200]
    Kaeptnhuck posts ante [200]
    AlexPok83 posts ante [200]
    NitroHungary posts ante [200]
    Balteatus posts ante [200]
    maxmueck posts ante [200]
    trapdoor777 posts ante [200]
    Skyline0301 posts ante [200]
    ** Dealing down cards **
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to NitroHungary [ Kh As ]
    Congratulations Players, you have reached the Final Table
    mbourke888 has been reconnected and has 18 seconds to act.
    mbourke888 folds
    master_quad folds
    Womanarse is all-In [125,238]
    Kaeptnhuck folds
    AlexPok83 folds
    NitroHungary...???

    The guy's stats after 123 hands: VP 15, PFR 13, AF 4.0
    What do you put him on/is it right to fold here?

    Thx in advance!
  2. Klepto05 Klepto05 is offline

    Bristol, CT
    United States

    Posts: 92
    Joined: Nov 08

    Mar 17th, 2009 (3/17/2009 7:38pm) in reply to NitroHUN

    no way im folding here. If he has AA-KK he is most likely raising 2.5-3x to try and get action. This could be like 66-QQ A10+, and I think you have to call, even if you KNOW he has QQ
    Its worth the flip here for the big stack
  3. BackWash BackWash is offline

    Posts: 117
    Joined: Feb 09

    Mar 17th, 2009 (3/17/2009 9:24pm) in reply to Klepto05

    I don't think there is a raise that could be made for me to lay this down. I'm thinking they're just trying to steal?
  4. debo34 debo34 is offline

    Bend, OR
    United States

    Posts: 479
    Joined: Mar 05

    Mar 18th, 2009 (3/18/2009 3:58pm) in reply to BackWash

    i dont think i can lay your hand down
     
  5. jdibss jdibss is offline

    Posts: 1,079
    Joined: Nov 07

    Mar 18th, 2009 (3/18/2009 4:28pm) in reply to NitroHUN

    never folding this with 13 bb
    your crushing most of the time
    plus itss partypoker ....comeon
  6. 13Jayhawk13 13Jayhawk13 is offline

    Olathe, KS
    United States

    Posts: 761
    Joined: Feb 08

    Mar 18th, 2009 (3/18/2009 4:39pm) in reply to Klepto05

     
    Originally Posted by Klepto05 View Post

    no way im folding here. If he has AA-KK he is most likely raising 2.5-3x to try and get action. This could be like 66-QQ A10+, and I think you have to call, even if you KNOW he has QQ
    Its worth the flip here for the big stack

    I agree completely with this range. I'd probably fold if he tabled QQ though. But without knowing he has QQ, which you could never know, this is a call all day long. Do it a million times over and you'll see why; do it just once and you'll ask why.
  7. NitroHUN NitroHUN is offline

    Siófok
    Hungary

    Posts: 22
    Joined: May 08

    Mar 18th, 2009 (3/18/2009 6:52pm) in reply to NitroHUN

    OK guys, you said the exact thing what i did. I kinda instacalled, the guy showed queens, the board came 5678 and i couldn't hit the 6 outs plus 8 chop-outs which made me sick in the stomach and running a quick ICM calculation.

    AND HERE'S THE CATCH!

    I think his range might not possibly be 66+ AT+, but rather TT+ AQ+
    If you calculate ICM with his TT, JJ, or QQ, it turns out to be -EV.

    I started out the final table with 135$ of equity, and I have around 45% chance for doubling up and getting 220$ equity, and 55% to bust out in 10th, cashing for only 26$. So it means I have 0.45*220+0.55*26 ~ 113$ icm, so it turns out it is hugely -EV.

    Now obviously youre in the drivers seat if he has AQ but the chances for him having that are just about the same for having KK.

    I still would make an instacall but this mathematical fact showes you VERY much about the dangers of overbetting.
    Thread Starter
  8. Klepto05 Klepto05 is offline

    Bristol, CT
    United States

    Posts: 92
    Joined: Nov 08

    Mar 19th, 2009 (3/19/2009 1:55pm) in reply to NitroHUN

    I think assigning a range of AQ+ 1010+ is far too tight... you think he is open mucking 66-99 A/10 AJ? I doubt it... and like I said, take KK and AA completely out of his range, as 99% of players at this level are not open shipping those hands, they are raising for value..

    There is no way calling with AK here is -EV.. its a snap call imo

    "dont be results oriented" gets beaten to death on here.. but its true

    calling is the right play.. run better next time
  9. Ajint Orange Ajint Orange is offline

    CT
    United States

    Posts: 253
    Joined: Feb 09

    Mar 22nd, 2009 (3/22/2009 12:46am) in reply to Klepto05

    Definately a snap call.

    With 13 BB's you can't play post-flop poker. If you fold here, what hand will you be waiting for to play?
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