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first post - advice greatly appreciated. Tough spot with 99

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  1. doctor_fun doctor_fun is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 41
    Joined: Jun 07

    Jul 2nd, 2007 (7/2/2007 11:33pm)

    http://www.pokerhand.org/?1229023

    wasn't sure what line to take here. i decided that i needed to play for the win and take a gamble. As the shorter stack could have had a wide range for shoving here.
    any thoughts?
     
  2. Andy015a Andy015a is offline

    Syracuse, NY
    United States

    Posts: 40
    Joined: Dec 06

    Jul 3rd, 2007 (7/3/2007 12:42am) in reply to doctor_fun

    I dont like the push here 99 pry looks good short stacked but after the re raise the best you can hope for is a coinflip but a good percentage of the time here your dominated... I'd say fold and wait for a better spot.
  3. AawwNutz AawwNutz is offline

    Lewisville, TX
    United States

    Posts: 1,218
    Joined: Feb 05

    Jul 3rd, 2007 (7/3/2007 10:08am) in reply to doctor_fun

    Welcome to P5's. I would love to contribute to your first post.

    I actually think this hand depends on your style. The big stack will be getting great odds to play along, so you know you can have a big stack if you win. From a pot odds perspective, I think the gamble is close to being correct. My style is such that I would fold because I don't want to play this hand 3 ways and take the bad side of the 2-1 variance.

    Best case: you are up against AK and 88 where you have made a correct play based on pot odds compared to your 45% chance of winning.

    Similar case: you are up against KQ and AQ where you are a similar 45% favorite - again, a correct pot odds play, but you are still going to bust more times than not.

    Worst case: you are up against JJ and QQ. You now have a 15% chance to win the pot. This is where the real pain is.

    Bad case: you are up against JJ and KQ. You now have a 17% chance to win the pot.

    Bad case: you are up against AJ and KQ. This scenario leaves you in the 33% range.

    If you give all the cases an equal 20% chance of being the result, you are a 31% favorite which is slightly less than your 33% contribution to the overall pot. If you are an optimist, you could certainly change the likelihood percentages to get you to an even situation.

    If you had enough chips to ensure that the first player folds, I like the overshove because you have nice equity heads up and pot odds at 1.6-1. I would have to PokerStove the shover's range to see what it needed to be, but I think the play would look better here. With the big stack getting 3-1 on his last call, I just don't think you can count on a heads up pot.

    Overall, I think the best analogy is: it's similar to taking 67o up against AKs. We've all won those races, but might feel sick about losing it for OUR tournament life after playing that long.
     
  4. doctor_fun doctor_fun is offline

    London
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 41
    Joined: Jun 07

    Jul 3rd, 2007 (7/3/2007 11:19am) in reply to AawwNutz

    thx for your thoughts. i agree i may have looked at this situation a little optimistically in the hope of getting a big stack. i didn't think about the pot odds for the big stack to call and was really only thinking of the shover's range which i thought i was ahead of. Have been gettin in these situations when short a lot recently and will certainly reevaluate my thinking when this kind of situation occurs again.
     
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  5. moorman1 moorman1 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 491
    Joined: May 06

    Jul 3rd, 2007 (7/3/2007 2:35pm) in reply to doctor_fun

    i fold this but im a weak donkey nit like badpab2
    40 2111 
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