Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Flatting when you are certain someone has A,K...

Reply to Thread
  1. Nuscas Nuscas is offline

    Posts: 20
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 12:13am)

    Ok, sooo. Played a $100 1rebuy; 1add today on Fulltilt today. Down to 43 players blinds of 300/600 ante of 75.

    UTG raises to 1500 (a player capable of raising suited connectors and a fairly loose range); player 'Bowser125' with about 29k who I know is decent makes it 7200 in early mid position. I'm on his left with J,J.

    First of all, his raise to 7200 screams A,K to me. Perhaps if I had played with him more I could get a more accurate range, but as it stood at that time A,K seemed 90% probably... atleast.

    I was sitting with about 28k at the time and decided to flat. Basically I know he has A,K and he would be willing to call my allin if I ship. Seeing as how A,K is a better hand for seeing 5 cards then J,J is, I decide to just call and if no A or K hits I'm allin on flop. At this point I simply disregarded the 1500 UTG raise to some degree, of course if he ships I have to re-evaluate, but very unlikely with sooo much strength behind.

    Anyhow.... flop comes 10,8,5 all clubs. I again have J,J but no clubs. He ships on flop, I snap call. He has A,K as presumed but with the K of clubs. GG.

    Curious what people think of my line???? And yes I considered just folding pre, but knowing someone has A,K I couldn't do it.

    Nuscas
     
  2. pcolakidpoker pcolakidpoker is offline

    Posts: 49
    Joined: Jun 08

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 12:35am) in reply to Nuscas

    i dont think u played it wrong at all. I would have pushed after the flop too. That time he sucked out for his four card flush but many times you would have won that hand. online is just really tricky and the suckout and percentages are way off from playing live. Every time i get knocked out of a tournament I try to analyze the situation and if i made the right move and just got sucked out on im not so dissapointed in myself. If i made a bad call I try to analyze and see what were the signs that i was beat and why or how i could have layed the hand down. Online in my opinion is tougher than live poker for sure. If this helps even a little its worth it.
  3. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 1:07am) in reply to Nuscas

    I know that many players reraise smaller with AA, KK, and that many players make bigger reraises (like his 7200) with AK, QQ, JJ, TT and hands like that.

    How do you put him on AK here?

    I would agree that AK is in his range, and sometimes that is what he would hold, but in no way, shape or form, can you accurately read him as "AK 90% of the time", or even "AK more than half the time" with just that one action.
  4. Appst08 Appst08 is offline

    Posts: 5,543
    Joined: Sep 07

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 1:17am) in reply to Jennifear

    i don't understand why you flat if you believe you have the best hand? And aren't trying to trap.
     
  5. BigRed0000 BigRed0000 is offline

    Austin, TX
    United States

    Posts: 521
    Joined: Jan 08

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 1:25am) in reply to Appst08

    its really bad to flat here, if you think he has AK you should want to get it in here pre as sa favorite with dead money from blinds/antes/other guy's raise.
  6. Nuscas Nuscas is offline

    Posts: 20
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 2:45am) in reply to BigRed0000

    I can't think that it is really bad to flat here. My reason being is that if I am pretty certain he has A,K and it is a race regardless, and if I can see a flop without an Ace or a King then all of sudden my probability to win has gone up. Also I still have to consider the under the gun raiser... I can still fold and have 21k if he comes over the top of both of us.

    What I think you aren't taking into consideration is the stack sizes... remember the blinds are only 300/600... I'd be shipping 28k into this pot knowing I'm going to get called with a race at best. I'm pretty sure he isn't raising 9,9 to 7200 in mid position after an under the gun raise.
     
    Thread Starter
  7. Nuscas Nuscas is offline

    Posts: 20
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 2:52am) in reply to Jennifear

    Well 90% or not, it's pretty close. This is definitely not a A,A; K,K; Q,Q type of raise in my opinion. It definitely could be against a random, but Bowser125 is a regular and he would want to extract value out those hands rather then make such a large raise and chase out the field in my opinion.

    I know that if I have AA thru QQ I would make it around 4800 - 6000 max. And also flatting in some circumstances as well. 7200... come on. That is A,K. My only concern at the time was Q,Q.

    In any case I appreciate the feedback, tough spot overall.
     
    Thread Starter
  8. m_hawk_1 m_hawk_1 is offline

    Australia

    Posts: 752
    Joined: Mar 07

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 3:26am) in reply to Nuscas

    poker is profitable.
    471 
  9. Nuscas Nuscas is offline

    Posts: 20
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 9:03am) in reply to m_hawk_1

    It was brought to my attention that I should include the intial raiser's stack which I should have done... he had 40k. Definitely makes a difference in this setting which I took into account at the time, but didn't make clear in the intial post.

    It reinstates my opinion on flatting, pushing 28k seems like too much of a prayer that neither player behind has a premium.
     
    Thread Starter
  10. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

    Posts: 6,643
    Joined: Sep 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 9:49am) in reply to Nuscas

     
    Originally Posted by Nuscas View Post

    7200... come on. That is A,K.

    wow, soul mf-reader in da hizzy.
  11. blizair blizair is offline

    CT
    United States

    Posts: 427
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 3:14pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    ya this is prettttty prettttty bad
    596 1
  12. Dead Money Dom Dead Money Dom is offline

    Buffalo, NY
    United States

    Posts: 985
    Joined: Apr 08

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 3:43pm) in reply to Nuscas

    how do u know he has ak? can u see his hole cards?
     
  13. POKER_PANDA POKER_PANDA is offline

    Tahoe City, CA
    United States

    Posts: 4,520
    Joined: May 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 5:51pm) in reply to Nuscas

     
    Originally Posted by Nuscas View Post

    First of all, his raise to 7200 screams A,K to me. Perhaps if I had played with him more I could get a more accurate range

    i lol'd
  14. qjuice14 qjuice14 is offline

    Posts: 3,989
    Joined: Aug 07

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 6:27pm) in reply to POKER_PANDA

     
    Originally Posted by POKER_PANDA View Post

     
    Originally Posted by Nuscas View Post

    First of all, his raise to 7200 screams A,K to me. Perhaps if I had played with him more I could get a more accurate range

    i lol'd

    no shit.

    with limited history, you can narrow down a 3-bet to 90%+ to one single hand.

    However, with more history you can narrow this range even further. I suppose after 3or4x's playing with him you can take out that 10% margin of error and just assign this 3-bet to 100% AK..
     
  15. undertheradar undertheradar is offline

    Goddard, KS
    United States

    Posts: 2,471
    Joined: May 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 6:27pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    ok taking out the gibberish that the OP said about ak because you obviously can't narrow it down that much, whats your line then? I am curious to hear how others would play it.
  16. bdubz9180 bdubz9180 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 814
    Joined: Aug 07

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 6:46pm) in reply to undertheradar

    I shove here.
  17. Stupor_Mundi Stupor_Mundi is offline

    Silver Spring, MD
    United States

    Posts: 2,409
    Joined: Mar 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 8:23pm) in reply to Nuscas

    I shove 99% of the time here. The only call I make in position here is against a total maniac or idiot who I know is shipping AK regardless of the flop that comes out. Makes it very easy to trap or get away. But I also don't necessarily take 7200 as only AK, it's just more likely to be AK than other hands in his range. Even if you're 100% certain it's AK, why don't you want to isolate for the race and away from the EP raiser here?

    An over cold call here simply screams either a total monster or the hand you have and you are giving up a ton of value against even bad players.

    You have to win races to win tournaments, it's a fact of life.
  18. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

    Posts: 6,700
    Joined: Aug 07

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 10:55pm) in reply to Stupor_Mundi

    WTF. Were my posts deleted??
    170 2 

    Gags30 is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.

  19. rcrane082985 rcrane082985 is offline

    Posts: 1,264
    Joined: Jun 06

    Mar 14th, 2009 (3/14/2009 11:37pm) in reply to Nuscas

    uhh, am i the only person who thinks the UTg raisers stack size is important? lol
     
  20. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

    Posts: 6,700
    Joined: Aug 07

    Mar 15th, 2009 (3/15/2009 12:02am) in reply to rcrane082985

     
    Originally Posted by rcrane082985 View Post

    uhh, am i the only person who thinks the UTg raisers stack size is important? lol

    after he says utg is a loose player that's capable I assume he has >like 20k and raise/folding a decent % of the time
    170 2 
  21. Shrubbery Shrubbery is offline

    Naperville, IL
    United States

    Posts: 3,148
    Joined: Oct 07

    Mar 15th, 2009 (3/15/2009 2:24am) in reply to Nuscas

    hidden brag obv that u called out his exact hand... fwiw his range is not totally just AK, I think flatting theres is very bad imo, i think i fold pre tbh, if you have no reads on either players then i probably just muck here, the 3betters range (with no reads) should be QQ+ AK imo... therefor this is a fold... even to the big raise m
     1
  22. Nuscas Nuscas is offline

    Posts: 20
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 15th, 2009 (3/15/2009 1:24pm) in reply to Gags30

    I mentioned later that the utg stack was 42k which definitely is significant I agree. We are all very deep and there are still 5 people yet to act behind. I am purely calling to see if the utg raiser re raises and then I can see what the 3 bettor does.
    What can I say, sometimes you just have to go on gut; I truly put him on A,K (Q,Q only hand that would also fit in there knowing this player wouldn't raise so much with Aces or kings).
    I definitely thought of shoving and I don't think that it would be wrong to do so, folding is also fine (better spots will arise); but as it stood flatting seemed like the best option at the time. Worst case scenerio is if utg raiser also calls, but it seemed unlikely unless he held a very big hand (5700 more).
     
    Thread Starter
  23. thefuture021 thefuture021 is offline

    Dallas, TX
    United States

    Posts: 8,797
    Joined: Apr 06

    Mar 15th, 2009 (3/15/2009 2:29pm) in reply to Nuscas

     
    Originally Posted by Nuscas View Post

    Well 90% or not, it's pretty close. This is definitely not a A,A; K,K; Q,Q type of raise in my opinion.

    lol wtf. He "definitely" doesn't have the only 3 hands in his range that crush you? So you flat?

    Head asplodeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.
  24. Nuscas Nuscas is offline

    Posts: 20
    Joined: Oct 06

    Mar 15th, 2009 (3/15/2009 2:52pm) in reply to thefuture021

    There's and utg raiser!! I can't exactly narrow his range to 3 hands that crush me can I ???? If I were heads up against the 7200 raiser then yes I would play the hand differently. I don't mind racing, I do play poker. But this isn't that type of situation... stacks are very deep and there are others involved in hand.
    But as I said earlier I would be fine with pushing as well. Took another route however.
     
    Thread Starter
Reply to Thread

Similar Threads