[winwin07]

Villain is a very solid reg. His range is obviously super polarized here its just a matter of figuring if it has to skew super strong here. It is tough to really think of any hands in his bluff range and i kinda doubt he's pulling some super sick merge here trying to get like AK or something to pay off. But at the same time I'm also super strong here so its never easy to fold.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker Game #24901472935: The Fifty-Fifty (186316096), Table 75 - 800/1600 Ante 200 - No Limit Hold'em - 01:38:46 ET - 2010/10/22
Seat 1: desperaddo (37,640), is sitting out
Seat 2: theusual06 (42,283)
Seat 3: donktracy (36,604)
Seat 4: ready2reap (35,001)
Seat 5: FosterH (32,497)
Seat 6: Sykedupp (107,255)
Seat 7: winwin07 (109,166)
Seat 8: mmcqtx (193,035)
Seat 9: dollary (31,868)
desperaddo antes 200
theusual06 antes 200
donktracy antes 200
ready2reap antes 200
FosterH antes 200
Sykedupp antes 200
winwin07 antes 200
mmcqtx antes 200
dollary antes 200
donktracy posts the small blind of 800
ready2reap posts the big blind of 1,600
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to winwin07 [Ah Jh]
FosterH folds
desperaddo has returned
Sykedupp has 15 seconds left to act
Sykedupp raises to 3,800
winwin07 calls 3,800
mmcqtx folds
dollary folds
desperaddo has 15 seconds left to act
desperaddo has timed out
desperaddo folds
desperaddo is sitting out
theusual06 folds
desperaddo has returned
donktracy folds
ready2reap folds
*** FLOP *** [Qc Kc Ts]
Sykedupp has 15 seconds left to act
Sykedupp bets 4,800
winwin07 calls 4,800
*** TURN *** [Qc Kc Ts] [9c]
Sykedupp checks
winwin07 bets 11,040
Sykedupp has 15 seconds left to act
Sykedupp raises to 25,555
winwin07 calls 14,515
*** RIVER *** [Qc Kc Ts 9c] [3h]
Sykedupp has 15 seconds left to act
Sykedupp bets 72,900, and is all in
winwin07 has 15 seconds left to act
winwin07 ?????? Edited By: winwin07 Oct 22nd, 2010 at 07:04 AM
Reason: oh and sweet redundant title....cool we can't edit that and all.

[dalix88]

I don't think I could fold here, considering the villain may take this line with Jx (correct me if I'm wrong?). Big club blockers on the board as well, so crying call I guess. Edited By: dalix88 Oct 22nd, 2010 at 07:43 AM

[pokerproplaya08]

 

Originally Posted by dalix88

I don't think I could fold here, considering the villain may take this line with Jx (correct me if I'm wrong?). Big club blockers on the board as well, so crying call I guess.

^

[ACgaming]

Pretty sure the villian would c/c a non broadway straight here rather than shove.

Hero called the raise on the turn so he is looking pretty strong.

Hard to fold this but you probably should.

To call and succeed is to catch villian on an incredible spew...

[matze_widi]

u prolly should fold, idk if i would fold tho
fwiw i would prolly raise the flop to get as much chips in as possible, there are prolly a lot of hands in villains range where he might get it in on the flop and i would just try to stack him right there

[benrhyno]

I call but hate it

[mcandrews3rd]

im guessing its a fold, i would raise flop though a lot of scare card hits turn that loose you value or beat you as in the 9c

why is it you raise the turn?? - no matter re read hand history ha ha im a noob Edited By: mcandrews3rd Oct 22nd, 2010 at 04:34 PM

[drunk_bunny]

sick

[gjallen1975]

too many hands he could have there. 2 pairs, sets, pairs, whatev....flush obv/likely, but too many other possibles to fold imo.... Edited By: gjallen1975 Oct 22nd, 2010 at 01:35 PM

[winwin07]

I ended up calling and doing so rather quickly. He had JTs for the straight flush. I hated the call immediately after and still do for some of the reasons noted in the OP. The villains range is so super polarized with his river shove however I can't think of any hands in his bluff range that he'd play that way up to the river with unless he thought he was getting value with KQ or something on the first two streets only to turn it into a bluff on the river. Really I think the only hand given that board and his line that he's shoving the river with is a flush or better.

As for why I didn't raise the flop: We have some history and I don't think its uncommon for him to perceive me as floating light (especially as deep as we were) while I think a flop raise may actually send warning signals. But perhaps that's giving him too much credit for specific reads on me.