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Fold or call off stack??

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  1. gr8angler gr8angler is offline

    Vero Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 214
    Joined: Jun 07

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 4:20pm)

    based on math alone is this a fold or call...

    Full Tilt Poker Game #28280503003: $3 + $0.30 KO Sit & Go (219909598), Table 5 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:02:25 ET - 2011/02/17
    Seat 2: kemerovskiy (2,040)
    Seat 3: Cocas_o_sapo (4,740)
    Seat 4: hapegoluce (11,870)
    Seat 5: TightDrag (5,755)
    Seat 6: PokerPete1234 (3,260)
    Seat 7: Raudies (4,860)
    Seat 8: kh1mch1 (14,355)
    Seat 9: thossini (5,835)
    Raudies posts the small blind of 100
    kh1mch1 posts the big blind of 200
    The button is in seat #6
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to TightDrag [8c 6c]
    thossini calls 200
    kemerovskiy folds
    Cocas_o_sapo folds
    hapegoluce folds
    TightDrag calls 200
    PokerPete1234 folds
    Raudies calls 100
    kh1mch1 has 15 seconds left to act
    kh1mch1 checks
    *** FLOP *** [3c 4c 6d]
    Raudies bets 1,000
    kh1mch1 folds
    thossini raises to 5,635, and is all in
    TightDrag has 15 seconds left to act
  2. gr8angler gr8angler is offline

    Vero Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 214
    Joined: Jun 07

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 8:17pm) in reply to gr8angler

    thanks for all the replies, I feel so enlightened.
    Thread Starter
  3. m0zane m0zane is offline

    Oulu
    Finland

    Posts: 49
    Joined: Nov 10

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 8:36pm) in reply to gr8angler

    I'd call, flush draw + top pair. If he shows up with a set/overpair/overcards with flush draw you still have good equity..
  4. tcdmb36 tcdmb36 is offline

    Old Bridge, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 1,160
    Joined: Dec 06

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 8:39pm) in reply to m0zane

    Well if you are gonna limp it pre you cant get much better than flopping it...
  5. offensive offensive is offline

    Bloomington, IL
    United States

    Posts: 39
    Joined: Jun 10

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 8:39pm) in reply to tcdmb36

    Stupid thread
  6. Flopnuts1 Flopnuts1 is offline

    Posts: 563
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    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 8:50pm) in reply to offensive

    Sure, ship it in.
  7. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,121
    Joined: Feb 06

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 8:52pm) in reply to offensive

     
    Originally Posted by offensive View Post

    Stupid thread

    Worthless post.

    Math depends on the range of the person who opened (if he calls) and the person who jammed. Assuming the opener folds and the jammer has an overpair or a higher flush draw w/2 overs, it's about 50/50 and a call is +cEV. Anything worse than that and you're way ahead and it's a definite call. The only time not to call is if the jammer has a set, where it's about 30%/70% after the flop and you should fold.

    Since the jammer limped UTG and then jammed 30bbs, my money is on overpair or overcards. A call would be +cEV.
     969 
  8. offensive offensive is offline

    Bloomington, IL
    United States

    Posts: 39
    Joined: Jun 10

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 9:36pm) in reply to tyson219

     
    Originally Posted by tyson219 View Post

    Worthless post.

    Math depends on the range of the person who opened (if he calls) and the person who jammed. Assuming the opener folds and the jammer has an overpair or a higher flush draw w/2 overs, it's about 50/50 and a call is +cEV. Anything worse than that and you're way ahead and it's a definite call. The only time not to call is if the jammer has a set, where it's about 30%/70% after the flop and you should fold.

    Since the jammer limped UTG and then jammed 30bbs, my money is on overpair or overcards. A call would be +cEV.

    most stupiderist post

     
    Originally Posted by tyson219 View Post

    Worthless post.

    Math depends on the range of the person who opened (if he calls) and the person who jammed. Assuming the opener folds and the jammer has an overpair or a higher flush draw w/2 overs, it's about 50/50 and a call is +cEV. Anything worse than that and you're way ahead and it's a definite call. The only time not to call is if the jammer has a set, where it's about 30%/70% after the flop and you should fold.

    Since the jammer limped UTG and then jammed 30bbs, my money is on overpair or overcards. A call would be +cEV.

    most worthlessiest post
  9. gr8angler gr8angler is offline

    Vero Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 214
    Joined: Jun 07

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 10:41pm) in reply to offensive

    I guess my point behind the math was... Do I have enough outs to call assuming he has me beat at this point to win this more times than not. It may seem trivial and be a stupid post but I was honestly looking for opinions.
    Thread Starter
  10. Biskitdisher Biskitdisher is offline

    New Zealand

    Posts: 12
    Joined: Jan 11

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 10:46pm) in reply to gr8angler

    I'd call.

    oh and...offensive = knobjockey.
  11. Ready Ready is offline

    Posts: 127
    Joined: Jan 11

    Feb 17th, 2011 (2/17/2011 10:50pm) in reply to gr8angler

     
    Originally Posted by gr8angler View Post

    I guess my point behind the math was... Do I have enough outs to call assuming he has me beat at this point to win this more times than not. It may seem trivial and be a stupid post but I was honestly looking for opinions.

    I would be more prone to believe he has a better flush draw and no pair.....imho (and just ignore the butt heads in earlier posts.....you get a lot of that on here......:}

    High probability that I would call but (as with most posts) there is just not enough info.....How has this player been playing? Tag? LAG? Passive?

    Also....I assume your stacks are average? There are better spots to get all your chips in but if someone offers me the ability to have twice the average stack or better I really take that into consideration.
  12. jeremytimmons jeremytimmons is offline

    Richardson, TX
    United States

    Posts: 6
    Joined: May 10

    Feb 18th, 2011 (2/18/2011 1:08am) in reply to gr8angler

     
    Originally Posted by gr8angler View Post

    I guess my point behind the math was... Do I have enough outs to call assuming he has me beat at this point to win this more times than not. It may seem trivial and be a stupid post but I was honestly looking for opinions.


    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 45.424% 44.50% 00.92% 41853 868.00 { 77+, 55-33, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, 64o+, 54o, 43o }
    Hand 1: 54.576% 53.65% 00.92% 50461 868.00 { 8c6c }
    Edited By: jeremytimmons Feb 18th, 2011 at 01:11 AM
  13. Sagacious Man Sagacious Man is offline

    Australia

    Posts: 803
    Joined: Oct 10

    Feb 18th, 2011 (2/18/2011 1:56am) in reply to jeremytimmons

    Just fold. There are a lot of better draws out there. You are not getting a good enough price either it's like 1.2:1.
  14. andressoprano andressoprano is offline whaddya think of my game?

    Anchorage, AK
    United States

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    Feb 18th, 2011 (2/18/2011 2:06am) in reply to offensive

     
    Originally Posted by offensive View Post

    most stupiderist post

    most worthlessiest post

    Why don't you enlight us instead of bashing somebody who's trying to be helpfull ( he can be right or wrong, I don't know enough about poker to give my opinion, but he is not attacking anybody).
     1
  15. Ready Ready is offline

    Posts: 127
    Joined: Jan 11

    Feb 18th, 2011 (2/18/2011 2:28am) in reply to andressoprano

     
    Originally Posted by andressoprano View Post

    Why don't you enlight us instead of bashing somebody who's trying to be helpfull ( he can be right or wrong, I don't know enough about poker to give my opinion, but he is not attacking anybody).

    Wish we hadmore of this on these forums....great post
  16. s.l. halper s.l. halper is offline

    Garwood, NJ
    United States

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    Joined: Aug 06

    Feb 18th, 2011 (2/18/2011 3:05am) in reply to Ready

    This is a call. I'll give you my non-math, experienced based reasoning.

    The 90s are notoriously loose. At the $3 level you are far more likely to see naked draws and random hands where you are actually ahead, rather than have equity through the draw. You will also see the $1K player fold more often, making it hu for the same money and increasing your equity greatly.

    It is an important call to make based upon 90s strategy. A win in this hand will give you 12K if you win the hu; about 16k if it is 3-way and you survive. The 90s pay the final table only. The faster you can get to 15k in chips the better. It will allow you to play smart poker as opposed to desparate poker during the final two tables, which is the most important part of the game.
     
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