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Fold topset here everytime?

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  1. SneakOne SneakOne is offline

    London
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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:13am)

    We're like 6 hands in...haven't played a hand before this..

    pokerstars Game #13624841390: Tournament #68990212, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2007/12/03 - 12:06:01 (ET)
    Table '68990212 21' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
    Seat 1: 123Crusader (3000 in chips)
    Seat 2: SneakOne (2990 in chips)
    Seat 3: jslbravo (2610 in chips)
    Seat 4: Shewi (3000 in chips)
    Seat 5: DUPPY (3730 in chips)
    Seat 6: PedjaMN (2970 in chips)
    Seat 7: AJunior11 (2970 in chips) is sitting out
    Seat 8: kincsesz (2730 in chips)
    Seat 9: keijo777 (3000 in chips)
    kincsesz: posts small blind 10
    keijo777: posts big blind 20
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to SneakOne [Qs Qc]
    123Crusader: folds
    SneakOne: raises 40 to 60
    jslbravo: folds
    Shewi: folds
    DUPPY: folds
    PedjaMN: calls 60
    AJunior11: folds
    kincsesz: calls 50
    keijo777: folds
    *** FLOP *** [9d 2c 8h]
    kincsesz: checks
    SneakOne: bets 140
    PedjaMN: calls 140
    kincsesz: calls 140
    *** TURN *** [9d 2c 8h] [Qh]
    kincsesz: checks
    SneakOne: bets 300
    PedjaMN: raises 720 to 1020
    kincsesz: raises 1510 to 2530 and is all-in
    SneakOne: folds
    PedjaMN: folds
    kincsesz collected 2960 from pot
    kincsesz: doesn't show hand
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 2960 | Rake 0
    Board [9d 2c 8h Qh]
    Seat 1: 123Crusader folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 2: SneakOne folded on the Turn
    Seat 3: jslbravo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: Shewi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: DUPPY folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: PedjaMN folded on the Turn
    Seat 7: AJunior11 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 8: kincsesz (small blind) collected (2960)
    Seat 9: keijo777 (big blind) folded before Flop
     
  2. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:15am) in reply to SneakOne

    raise more pre

    bet bigger ont he flop

    probably fold turn, the only hand i see you beating and him shoving w is something w 2 hearts, but thats a stretch, i think this is a fold
  3. creg27 creg27 is offline

    Leeds
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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:16am) in reply to SneakOne

    mmmm i dunno. Sometimes i call, i hate being the first one to post just in case i get berated for my play.

    Fuck it i call. If he got TJ i suck out on the river. If i dont i load up another
  4. airedale05 airedale05 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:26am) in reply to creg27

    raise more pre??? I think if 3x is ur standard raise at this stage of tourney then that's what you bet. with ~180 in the pot on flop and u bet 140, I think that is fine as well. Not sure about folding on turn shove though. I've seen over and over again in this tournament ppl shoving weak hands, I snap call this, but it's just me.
     
  5. buchiYAYO buchiYAYO is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:30am) in reply to SneakOne

    LOL how can you people be so tight? I love all the dumb posts in PD "oh I have a str8 flush but its the low end I better lay it down". If he has JT then that just sux oh well. What a bad fold.

    seriously, If your not going to play this hand what are you going to play?
  6. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:33am) in reply to SneakOne

    No way I am folding here.

    There is only one hand beating you and even if you are behind you have 10 river outs. In the early stages of low-level MTTs there are MANY hands playing this line you are crushing and only one you are beat by and you have outs even then. There is no way folding is a good play here.
  7. buchiYAYO buchiYAYO is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:34am) in reply to EyeKnows

    I am in agreement with the statement made by the man who posted above this reply
  8. Phi Phi is offline aka tennisee

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:40am) in reply to buchiYAYO

    buchi

    *cracks whip*

    get ur ass back in OT
  9. SPURSAAAAA SPURSAAAAA is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:44am) in reply to buchiYAYO

    I play these 45 man sngs all the time and i believe that laydown is correct, i would fold this 100%. the standard of play is not terrible in these and you are beat im sure
  10. dtools22 dtools22 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 11:44am) in reply to SneakOne

    This is tough and it took me a minute to look at it. I think you have to call this for a few reasons.

    There is a grand total of 1 hand in the deck that beats you right now, the JT. There are alot more hands that I could see being played this way than just JT. I could see either villian playing an overpair like this, AA definately is a possibility KK I'm shakey on being in the range. You could have just turned set over set against either 99, 22, or 88. There is the outside chance of a flush draw/straight draw combo.

    Even if you are beaten right now, you are by far not out of it. Worst case scenario is you're up against another set and JThh and if so you're pretty much screwed. However it is more likely that you have something like 7 outs so you can redraw to the best hand if you don't already have it now. I'd say make the shove here and get the money in with what I think is probably the best hand.

    EDIT: Folding isn't terrible if you're really convinced that's how this guy would have played JT then go ahead and fold. With no reads, you can't make this laydown
  11. Stupor_Mundi Stupor_Mundi is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:08pm) in reply to SneakOne

    I'm going broke here to anyone but a total nit.
  12. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:11pm) in reply to SneakOne

    There's no way i fold this. You've hit your gin card and need to play it. If you run into the one hand that can beat you...gg.

    I would say that betting more is optimal pf, although I suppose that is a matter of taste. I like a 4-5x bet this early in a donkament. If people are coming in wiht a drawing hand or Ax make them pay a dear price to do it. I find that a 5x bet is somewhat more effective in clearing out the riffraff at this stage and make postflop play a little more clear--and its really not costing you much of your stack to make that bet.

    I kinda see a 3x bet as slowplaying this early in this t'ment. So many ppl are gonna call with marginal drawing hands. Queens are a fine hand until overs or a dangerous flop shows up in a multiway pot. But when you hit your set here you are scooping a large pot 95% of the time.
  13. feldliss feldliss is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:12pm) in reply to Stupor_Mundi

    Instacall
    1
  14. ilivebythe5 ilivebythe5 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:12pm) in reply to SneakOne

    I think you have to fold here and wait till there is a better spot... like a royal flush. In fact since the only way you can play QQ after the flop is if you flop quads then I would fold pre flop.
  15. buchiYAYO buchiYAYO is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:19pm) in reply to ilivebythe5

    but its tough to call a bet with quad queens on the flop because there is a chance of running A's or K's coming and you know your obv beat if that happens, and it very well could.
  16. dtools22 dtools22 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:25pm) in reply to buchiYAYO

    Haha, I you guys.

    Funny stuff.
  17. Cmoney3 Cmoney3 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:26pm) in reply to buchiYAYO

    ftr, im probably not folding ever in this $20 donkey tourney

    but really ppl, what hand do you see the 3rd guy in the pot jamming here that we beat????

    theres a reason some of us win at this game and a reason that some of you will always be break even
  18. JKamikazeKid JKamikazeKid is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:32pm) in reply to SneakOne

    Based on the stack-sizes, I can see the following:

    kincsesz is down to about 2,700 in chips so he's been pretty active if its only been 6 hands. I can put him on 2-pair...maybe.

    I can see PedjaMN possibly on something like Q-9 or A-Q. Played pretty tight up until this point so here I can see having possibly a set as well (8-8 or 9-9...can't really see 2-2).

    You have top set. True there's a flush draw and possible straight on the board, but I can't see either of them having these. You currently have 2nd nuts with outdraws to a full-house if one of these two had J-10. I wouldn't be able to fold here.

    BTW, 3x BB raise pre-flop, was that to induce marginal hands to call? If so, you probably would have gotten the same response with a bet of 4-6x BB.

    If I was one of these two, its not too hard to imagine them playing at you with 9-9, 8-8, or even 9-8, Q-9, etc.). I wouldn't put you on QQ....A-Q, maybe.

    I'd go ahead and instacall here too. Its not like you have a medium set...its top set. If you go broke here...gg.

    I'm amazed you folded that. <<<<note this is not to be insulting....I just can't see myself folding this.
  19. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:40pm) in reply to Cmoney3

    Right so you agree that folding here, in this instance, is a mistake. I think we're all on the same page then, eh? Obv must less level of sophistication at this level of play than what your used to. But weak players also fold alot when they shouldn't because they too narrowly define their opponents hand. In this instance putting either player on the nuts would be an example of that.
  20. mahgnislaw mahgnislaw is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:48pm) in reply to JKamikazeKid

    Wow thats a pretty advanced fold. Tough spot in $20 online mtt. Live it's an easy fold, here i think I have to call and live with the results
  21. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:52pm) in reply to SneakOne

    OMG at anyone folding here to the possibility they are behind and drawing to 10 outs on river IF BEHIND. There are like a zillion other hands taking this exact same line that you are crushing and exactly one you are behind and even then you are drawing to 10 outs on the river. And if you are folding because you fear THEIR possible draws then you should reevaluate poker as a hobby.

    And I don't think this is a SNG, I think it is the $20K.
  22. TiltinShoes TiltinShoes is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:54pm) in reply to mahgnislaw

    I am not folding here. Guess I am a spewtard.
  23. ParadiceCity ParadiceCity is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 12:57pm) in reply to SneakOne

    hopefully at this point you all see the trend that players who make more money have said to fold this.

    re-evaluate

    cmoney3 told u to fold and he has won more than all of you combined
  24. improved improved is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:00pm) in reply to SneakOne

    in a $100, $200 i might fold in a $20 i beat the donk into the pot who will show me A9 or 98
    262 3
  25. improved improved is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:03pm) in reply to ParadiceCity

    cmoney doesnt play $20 and stuff,, in the regular $100 , $200 $500 etc, i dont put the guy on J-10 automatically, i prob put him on 99, 88 preflop maybe even 22 i dont know but in a $20, they guy could have QJ and be all in here ALL the time,, i assume IDK, at those stakes people are soo bad and all they wanna do is gamble and go broke with top pair. so SHOVE SHOVE SHOVE
    262 3
  26. slayer4500 slayer4500 is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:05pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    Please call this, if he has j10, gg and hope the board pairs...there is a decent possibility someone is slow playing a flopped set and u have him killed
  27. ParadiceCity ParadiceCity is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:05pm) in reply to improved

    cmoney doesnt normally play 20$ but he knows how
  28. TiltinShoes TiltinShoes is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:06pm) in reply to ParadiceCity

    LOL Paradice nice post. Plenty of decent winners have said to call here. And this is a 20$ tourney. My point is 2 pair, sets, or overpairs could easily be the case here givin the size of the game.

    Also, I am pretty sure there are people who advise calling here that have folded similar situations before. Honestly though, this is a $20 tournament and there is the possibility to pad your stack for a little while.
  29. EyeKnows EyeKnows is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:12pm) in reply to ParadiceCity

    gg reading skills...cmoney said,

    "ftr, im probably not folding ever in this $20 donkey tourney"

    And to answer his question ab what hands are we beating the shover has - 99, 88, 22, AA, KK to start, and JJ or TT I often see shoving here early in a $22 MTT also. Then AQ, Q9, Q8, Q2 and other less likely holdings but I think you see my point. There is exactly one hand we are behind and if that is the case then we are drawing to 10 outs.
  30. TiltinShoes TiltinShoes is offline

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    Dec 3rd, 2007 (12/3/2007 1:20pm) in reply to EyeKnows

    Nice analysis. If you think eye knows is off with these hands, he isn't very often in a $20 tourney. I would say JJ and 1010 do not show up here very often.
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