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Forced to Flip?

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  1. polaris769 polaris769 is offline

    Ithaca, NY
    United States

    Posts: 256
    Joined: Oct 06

    Aug 21st, 2008 (8/21/2008 6:52pm)

    I actually wanted to do a poll on this, but there's no poll format on pocketfives. Basically, imagine that you are at the final table of a 300 person 20 dollar tourney (the Bodog 6k). You have 9bb, with blinds going up fairly soon and with antes. The 2 shortest stacks have 7bb. In regards stealing, you have been successful at the prior table, but not sure about how some of these new players play. So first hand of the final table, utg shoves all-in slightly having you covered. UTG player sometimes make fancy plays in late position, but not early position at a full table. You have two choices with AsQs- call or fold. You'll have a small range of hands dominated- KQ, A10, AJ, but most of the time you are flipping. Take the flip? I have my own opinion on this, but thought this situation would be interesting for discussion.
  2. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
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    Aug 21st, 2008 (8/21/2008 8:15pm) in reply to polaris769

    UTG is likely shoving a narrow range, one that beats AQs. In addition, there is some ICM benefit to not flipping here. The players with 7 BBs will likely go out first, and the chips you gain will be worth slightly less than the chips you stand to lose. With no other info, fold unless you think that the UTG player is shoving wide.
  3. polaris769 polaris769 is offline

    Ithaca, NY
    United States

    Posts: 256
    Joined: Oct 06

    Aug 21st, 2008 (8/21/2008 8:53pm) in reply to Jennifear

    Well, seeing the player play for an hour, I was very confident that he (utg) was not shoving with AA, KK or QQ (feel he would have raised to 2.5bb or 3bb), but he was quite capable of shoving with KQ, A10 or AJ. Does that alter your opinion? Also, what about the benefits of doubling up, and allowing yourself the ability to fold marginal hands like KJ or A10 or AJ or any pp that currently you would be forced to shove with in an unopened pot?
    Frankly, is it worth it to fold for a possible slight bump in pay grades?
    Thread Starter
  4. Sp1ctacular3 Sp1ctacular3 is offline

    Gainesville, FL
    United States

    Posts: 708
    Joined: Aug 06

    Aug 21st, 2008 (8/21/2008 9:22pm) in reply to polaris769

    Whats your position on the table? Where are big and short stacks in relation to your seat? What have seen utg open shove from EP? When do blinds go up?

    If you put his range at 88+, ATo+, KQs, KQo, ATs+ then your 53% against his range but if your wrong about him possibly shoving AT, KQ, AJ then your about 45% against his range. If my table situation is favorable I pass it up. I flip a coin to decide, but say close call.
  5. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Aug 22nd, 2008 (8/22/2008 1:22am) in reply to polaris769

    "I was very confident that he (utg) was not shoving with AA, KK or QQ (feel he would have raised to 2.5bb or 3bb), but he was quite capable of shoving with KQ, A10 or AJ"

    Yes. That makes this a call, as long as you are in late position, such as in the BB, SB, or on the button.
  6. Danglesauce Danglesauce is offline

    United States

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    Aug 22nd, 2008 (8/22/2008 2:52am) in reply to Jennifear

    I'm calling
     
  7. Easy Duzit Easy Duzit is offline

    CA
    United States

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    Aug 22nd, 2008 (8/22/2008 11:21am) in reply to Danglesauce

    You need to double up soon or you will blind out. And utg was also short stacked, so they are also thinking the exact same thing, except they are sweating the BB next hand. The could be shoving with a much wider range then you give them credit for. Very likely they would shove any ace in that spot or maybe suited cards. Although you want to be the one raising, folding that hand from late position would be a mistake. If you are playing just to try and move up a few more spots, then fold. If you are playing to win you need to call and let the cards fall where they may.

    Easy Duzit
  8. beAv3AliCiOuS beAv3AliCiOuS is offline

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    Joined: Aug 08

    Aug 22nd, 2008 (8/22/2008 11:30am) in reply to Easy Duzit

    I make the call on this one..
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