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FT bubble Stars $109 25k, help settle debate...

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  1. MarkFSU1 MarkFSU1 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 6:23am)

    Table hasnt been too aggressive (not alot of 3b). hero has won a couple flips earlier at the table but since ive been able to raise and take without too much aggression back at him. Villain recently min raised the button and folded Ah face-up to the big blinds mini 3b with (bb had 20bb tota,l blinds were 1.25k-2.5k villain made it 5k on button , bb made it 10k villain folded Ah face up). Maybe one orbit later were 5 handed and this hand comes up...

    What is villains range? Is this a call or fold? What is the most $ev play here?

    $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI (1250/2500) - 2011/10/19 21:22:42 MT [2011/10/19 23:22:42 ET]
    Table '543010853 21' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
    Seat 4: " (62164 in chips)
    VILLAIN: (91918 in chips)
    Seat 6: HERO (114505 in chips)
    Seat 7: (38230 in chips)
    Seat 8: (115103 in chips)
    Seat 4posts the ante 250
    Seat 5: posts the ante 250
    HERO: posts the ante 250
    Seat 7: posts the ante 250
    Seat 8: posts the ante 250
    Villain: posts small blind 1250
    HERO: posts big blind 2500
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to HERO [Qd Ac]
    : folds
    : folds
    folds
    VILLAIN: raises 89168 to 91668 and is all-in
    HERO: ????

    payouts are as follows: (if we need the rest then i will get them)
    1. $6,560
    2. $4.8k
    3. $3.61k
    10-12. $512
     
  2. Jason2890 Jason2890 is offline plays plo for overlays

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 6:32am) in reply to MarkFSU1

    He's randomly shoving ~35 bbs and judging from your read he seems to be somewhat tight. I'm probably tank folding here, but I don't really hate a call bvb. I'm definitely calling with AK and TT+ though. Probably calling with AQs too.
  3. Andrew Andrew is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 6:37am) in reply to Jason2890

    I think it's a fold. If he's tight and not too experienced AK is most likely what he just ships 35 bigs pre flop right before the FT. Best case scenario is 88-jj IMO
  4. SS-TP SS-TP is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 7:05am) in reply to Andrew

    why are you asking his range? you played with him...you make it sound like hes really nitty....so im going to guess this shove is mostly mid pairs + aq/ak

    im pretty sure its unquestionably -$ev....just st8 up..esp if he isnt pushing worse aces and then its -cEV too...that said, im sure he does have some worse aces...and im sure youre capable of crushing the FT if you win this "flip"

    i would never personally fold here, as im sure you saw with my nice punt in this tourney...

    if you could say with 95% certainty he isnt pushing worse aces and with the table being as soft as you see, you should technically fold

    edit -- to sum it up..if hes really scared monney and nitty,you should fold (you havent done enough to prove that tho, the ace high one card show doesnt mean anything)....and by nitty, i mean hes doing this with 66+, AQ+ and youre really certain about it).but if he even has some sense of the game, like enough to r/c ak, im not folding...edges in most mtt's really arent large enough to pass this up imo
    Edited By: SS-TP Oct 20th, 2011 at 07:07 AM
    194 
  5. pokerscrub1 pokerscrub1 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 7:07am) in reply to SS-TP

    55-TT and AK/AQ/AJ mayby A9 or AT as well. Wouldnt think he would ever shove AA/KK/QQ here so you can feel pretty confident that your only in bad shape if he has AK. From my own personal history I have seen this type of play made with AK and like 77-99 a lot so i would wieght his range a little heavier towards those hands. It is really close and I think it comes down to how much edge you think you have over the table with these stacks.
     
  6. SS-TP SS-TP is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 7:21am) in reply to pokerscrub1

    i put in 66-JJ, AJs+ AQo+ and it loses like 4bbs to call, and the $EV is even worse as you can imagine....you have to factor in the edge you would have with 80+bbs and how often you would win the tourney etc to weigh it out......too tired for that and not entirely sure how to do it :)

    i also thought it was for 30bbs in my earlier response

    i think this is a pretty clear fold, if you can pin point him to such a range
    194 
  7. MarkFSU1 MarkFSU1 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 7:32am) in reply to SS-TP

    only reason i mention the Ah card, is because if he showed Ah and not willing to go 20bbs, then what hand is he willing to go ~40bbs with, its obv a much strong A or bigger pair...
     
    Thread Starter
  8. SS-TP SS-TP is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 7:42am) in reply to MarkFSU1

    ya but i'd r/f most aces in that spot too, he could easily have a2-aj which are in horrible shape to someone who clicks it back on you with 20bbs usually
    194 
  9. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 7:43am) in reply to SS-TP

    his range is probably something like 22-77 here, and never anything else but small/mid pairs...just fold, don't tell anyone, and pretend the hand never happened
    170 2 

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  10. 88XIN88 88XIN88 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 9:05am) in reply to Gags30

    If your taking payouts into consideration then yeah its a fold.

    In order to win it all though u must be willing to die so it's not a terrible call. You out of all people know this is a fairly easy call. Just sucks that when you call its all luck whoever wins the pot.

    Personally, reading the hand history I'd call in real game. Although when truly thinking about payouts and how you can easily move up the ladder/build chips when your playing postflop and such you can do really well too without flipping for your entire stack.

    Honestly though... I am calling this all day everyday blind vs blind. Even if its 3-4-5-6 bet... pre
    Edited By: 88XIN88 Oct 20th, 2011 at 09:07 AM
     
  11. decamps decamps is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 12:58pm) in reply to 88XIN88

    imo he s not rly confortable raise/calling or play OOP and usually his range are small to mid PP the thing is is he doing it with ATs AJo KQs. I believe I snap call this before I even think ICM and winning this pot makes you a big contender for the win and you can even fold to top 3 easy!! I d call and then get pissed when i loose the flip hehe

    PS the situation where he s not willing to go 20BB is much different he s the one shoving now you cant compare
    750 
  12. Dionysus Dionysus is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 1:06pm) in reply to decamps

    As a previous poster said AA & KK are prob out of the equation.

    Based on your intro and the 35bb shove, I reckon this is the action of a guy who doesn't want to leave himself open to a 3bet / shove (known in the poker community as an unexploitable shove they tell me :) This to me opens his range to 22+ A8s+ AT+.

    The guy could be making a genius, level 5, double bluff play but I'm snap calling all day.
  13. boneman27 boneman27 is offline

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    Oct 20th, 2011 (10/20/2011 2:50pm) in reply to decamps

     
    Originally Posted by decamps View Post

    imo he s not rly confortable raise/calling or play OOP and usually his range are small to mid PP the thing is is he doing it with ATs AJo KQs. I believe I snap call this before I even think ICM and winning this pot makes you a big contender for the win and you can even fold to top 3 easy!! I d call and then get pissed when i loose the flip hehe

    PS the situation where he s not willing to go 20BB is much different he s the one shoving now you cant compare

    +10000000
    I had my own thoughts then read this and didn't feel like typing the same thing.
     
  14. Andrew Andrew is offline

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    Oct 21st, 2011 (10/21/2011 4:43am) in reply to boneman27

    please tell me you called. can we hear results?
  15. chardrian chardrian is offline

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    Oct 21st, 2011 (10/21/2011 8:21am) in reply to Gags30

     
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

    his range is probably something like 22-77 here, and never anything else but small/mid pairs...just fold, don't tell anyone, and pretend the hand never happened

    I actually think his range prolly includes 88-JJ and AK as well but I agree about the rest.
      

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  16. Sagacious Man Sagacious Man is offline

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    Oct 22nd, 2011 (10/22/2011 9:29am) in reply to chardrian

    I would tank and fold personally.

    -You have a 47bb stack, which looks like its above the average stack at this point.
    -Also, you said the table has not been aggressive, so you can fold and keep abusing them.
    -Calling and losing will cripple you and cost a lot more equity than you gain by calling and winning.
    -Plus you have to give him a fairly nitty range, it is a big overshove.
  17. DapperDan08 DapperDan08 is offline

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    Oct 22nd, 2011 (10/22/2011 12:45pm) in reply to Sagacious Man

    Doesn't ICM play quite a big part in this so close to the FT? i.e. shouldn't we be passing up what seems to be a marginal edge at best? I understand that having such a big stack with an edge over the field may negate this fact a bit, but how much of an edge do we really have?

    With maybe 30-20 ppl left I make this call but on the FT bubble it seems OTT.
     
  18. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Oct 22nd, 2011 (10/22/2011 1:47pm) in reply to JIMMYKIMMEL

    Haven't read any of the responses-but I really don't see how we can fold here. I mean esp since he showed Ax when he mucked the other time. Like he probably thought folding some raggedy ace was a big deal. So he easily can show up with a worse A here a lot and jammed cause he didn't wanna be bullyed off some crappy ace.

    Another reason I'll say call is that I think we can pretty much take big pairs out of his range (or at least reduce the number of combinations of big pairs, esp AA and QQ). Sure he can have AK but I think we can also put A9s, AT0+ in there too.

    I know we not like super crazy about calling here but I kinda think you have to.
  19. the_snail03 the_snail03 is offline

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    Oct 23rd, 2011 (10/23/2011 7:06am) in reply to TheVillageGrinder

    This r/f showing an ace hand isn't enough info to give good advice, but I would call unless he is a nit.
     
  20. ACgaming ACgaming is offline

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    Oct 23rd, 2011 (10/23/2011 7:18am) in reply to the_snail03

    How can you even fold this to a nit?

    Can't imagine he shoves 37 bb BVB with anything that dominates you.
    Can easily see most players doing this with alot of hands you crush although low-mid pocket pairs probably make the majority of his range.

    When these absurd situations come up I just imagine how much more likely people do this with AJ, AT then AK but idk.

    I'm not the strongest mathematical player, but it would take some very strong persuading for me to even think to fold that..

    Could be a leak of mine tho.
    587 
  21. Andrew Andrew is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2011 (10/24/2011 4:19pm) in reply to ACgaming

    LOL didn't realize this was BvB. Given that I snap and sighhh after I lose a flip to 66. I agree that his range is going to be 22-88 most of the time...
  22. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Oct 24th, 2011 (10/24/2011 8:18pm) in reply to Andrew

     
    Originally Posted by Andrew View Post

    LOL didn't realize this was BvB. Given that I snap and sighhh after I lose a flip to 66. I agree that his range is going to be 22-88 most of the time...

    Add ATs, AJo+ and maybe KQs...can't say he doesn't have any Ax hands in his range.
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