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ok so i lost the HH but im going to try to write it out and discuss my thoughts
blinds are at 3k/6k i have 170k im in no need of worry and am content with my seat and whatnot
I pick up AK UTG and make a raise to 15000, two spots to my left someone who has roughly 200k makes a crazy shove all in and it comes back to me.
I called he/she showed down TT i bust in 8th place blah blah blah. Now i dont have pokerstove calculations or anything but with that big of a shove im putting his range at 99-QQ AQ+, i exclude KK and AA from his range because i think he makes a smaller raise to induce me to move all in. so my guess would be somewhere around 60% favorite against that range.
Now my question is does anyone suggest giving up a +EV situation at a FT when if i fold the hand i am far from hurting with over 150k at 3k/6k blinds i still have roughly an 25 BBs not hurting at all, and i also feel my edge over the remaining feild is big enough where i can fold this hand, and still be able to chip up well enough and still have a chance at winning without taking a basically coin flip situation.
Any thoughts?
EDIT: im going out right now and will come back to the responses -
You assumption that it’s a +EV move with that card range is false.
Of all the hands you listed you’re only a huge favorite over one that is AQ.<span> </span>Every other hand you at least a 56 44 dog too.
So with that in mind why call a push like that from someone who can bust you from the game.<span> </span>You got tons o chips and lots of play I would pick a better spot.
Bottom line is I would wait for a better time.
Doug from Colorado -
Need a lot more info then that, but with what's given I'm playing to win and snap-call.
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ouch
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So you've played I don't know how many hours to get in position to make it in the top 3 (where all the money is) yet you're gonna snap call AK (almost always a race) and hope to hit???
Ummm I'm folding A high here and def. finding a much better spot to get my money in... especially considering he's a bigger stack and can knock you out. If its a smaller stack shoving I might consider a race to get a large chip stack at a final table. I think its rediculous you've played that long to risk your tourney on AK against someone who can take you out.
I agree with what Rizen says in his videos 100%... avoid making big mistakes.
So what if you're out 15k in chips, no need to compound the error and call off your stack... you're still well over 100k in chips. Dump it and find somewhere better.
Just my $.02 -
*sigh*
anyone want to take this one? -
Super easy fold. And mordan if youre gonna be a doucheclown at least get you terms right. The guy didnt OPEN SHOVE as the op has already opened the pot for a raise. And to say that no on EVER pushes all in with AA or KK there means you havent played much or just that you would never do it which means........exactly nothing. Then you tell him to call next time when he says he called and lost to TT. GG reading and comprehension skills
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the first two words were right - u misspelt "call" tho
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looooooool
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i had a similar situation come up, i cant remember the exact numbers of the hand though but it was at the final table of the 25K Gr. 27.50$ on stars. i ended up getting it in with AK vs TT and lost my race also to bust 9th, when i was 3rd or 4th in chips and quite healthy. YOu gotta play to win, AK is huge and to fold here i think is so weak.
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I disagree that it is a super easy fold.
given that: you have a healthy stack size as is, that you feel the table is not THAT strong, and so with the 25 BB stack you will have left you feel reasonably confident of a top 3 finish, and you dont have much (any?) read on the opp other than the range you indictaed (and I agree with your range, very low odds of aa and kk (combined 1%... MAYBE combined 5%, but LOW), and aq and ak, and then some range of PP that are difficult to play post flop, say 88--qq or so; I WOULD ADD air say 1% to even as high as 10% of the time).
So: he has a slight edge on you with the coin flips, but you dominate air and aq (but you are dominated by aa and KK).
I think it is very close: sure, you win this (probable) coin flip and u have a monster stack and are looking to take down the mtt or 2nd the majority of the time; if you lose you are out in 8th. But if you fold you will have a good shot at top 3.
SO: I go with the fold. but I disagree that it is a super easy fold...!
--tc -
Well I am once again reminded why i don't post strategy replys on this site. If i cared about grammer and spelling don't u think i would have captialized each of my sentances......i obv could careless.
That being said people don't shove over top of 3x raises with that big of a stack when holding AA or KK, maybe 5% of the time at most, thats it. I am sorry sir but i have logged 200 tournies just this month how about you, I've played plenty enough.
The only person who responded with some poker intellect whatsoever was timzc1. As for your response tim the edge that your are giving yourself isn't including the blinds rising. By allowing for low pairs and AQs into your range along with factoring in the blind escalation there is more than enough equity to get it into that pot.
Lets remember that he is trying to get to the top 3 of the tournament. He can fold here and look for another spot(which isn't horrible, just not the best move if you want to win) or he can shove and get it in with positive equity and expectation and go on to finish top 3 in that tournament the majority of the time in the long run. -
If I exclude AA and KK then this is a call. I am not good enough to turn down positive expectation situations. I also think the range you are giving villain is too tight. Like someone said, this shove screams hands that people don't know how (or like) to play post-flop and even lower pairs than 99 are doing this.
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This isnt an easy fold. although i agree that likelyhood of AA/KK is slim (and for strong players almost non-existant), the fact is, most people are really bad at poker. in a tourney like the 5050, there are some tough players...but for the most part it is full of retards.
in tournaments like this, where there a large number of awful players, people make shoves like this sometimes with AA/kk (not often, but it def happens)
IMO, frictionless is clueless and his respose is bad. after reading it, im sure he has little experiance and isnt good. im not tryin to be an asshole, im just bein honest.
no need to compound the error and call off your stack... you're still well over 100k in chips. Dump it and find somewhere better.
there is no "compounding the error ". NOT opening AK and limping or doing whatever u woulda done is terrible.
your response is full of holes and makes little sense
Im prolly calling here, but it isnt 100% -
Doug, if you are going to post my stats don't be ignorant and post them from one site. I gave you the respect of posting your PLB which has all of your scores from all sites. Don't be ignorant and post stats that aren't even complete. Yes those are my correct full tilt stats, but if you believe those are all my stats you are wrong.
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i think this is fairly close, because youre looking at a race a vast majority of the time here. i almost always call in this situation but i am never very happy about it.
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Ok Mordan My bad
Here are your pokerstars life time stats.
Prize <span> </span><span> </span>Profit<span> </span>ROI
44,962<span> </span>0<span> </span>-14%
I can not find stats for the other sites but I am sure theyare as stunning as the above.
Now I respect your opinion.<span> </span>What I do not respect is disrespecting someone else based on some sillyscore that is not rooted in the real world.
Like I said before calling is not a terrible move it’s justin my opinion a money loser in the long run.
Learn to show your thoughts as a man and maybe you gettreated like one vs. being taken to the wood shed and beating about the head withthe FACT stick.
Doug from Colorado -
wow Doug.....i've cashed for over 120k on pokerstars.....i mean seriously quit looking like and idiot and post somthing right......your posts are pathetic......
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1) pokerstove is free, and even a computer retard like me can get it. so get it.
2) based on your range (and I think your range is ok) here's the results:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.675% 42.40% 10.27% 392071776 94987794.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 47.325% 37.05% 10.27% 342596796 94987794.00 { QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }
So with the dead money in the pot there is no question you made the correct call.
3) the rationale everyone is giving for why KK and AA should be excluded from the range is exactly why pushing with AA or KK here is a great play.
4) Even if you tighten up the range to TT+, AQ+ (which I think is more realistic) you are still basically 50/50 to win (you're actually a 49/51 dog) but with the dead money in the pot, the call here would still be correct.
5) I am not a subscriber to the fold a +EV situation to try and wait for an even bigger +EV situation. Take opportunites as they come to you. You had the opportunity to double up here, which would give you a great chance to take it down. It didn't pan out for you, but you also wouldn't have posted this hand if you had won this race.
chardrian is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.
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Mordan
Just keep talking your looking smarter and smarter everytime you name call.
Enjoy I am done with this post.
Only one way to tell who is right i'll see you at the table sometime and we can work it out there.
Doug From Colorado -
He is calling 155K to win 194K plus about 5K antes for a total of 199K, 1.28-1 pot odds. That has to be a +EV call with the range OP gave.
edit: chard beat me. -
I understand there is +EV here but I still think there is no need to call if you know you're in a coinflip for your tournament... I'm confident enough in my end game where I don't need to take chances winning a coinflip to take the tournament especially if I'm sitting in top 3.
I'm sure there are times where even top players fold in this situation even given the +EV, then again maybe I'm wrong? -
BTW Morden you're a complete jackass... you post my PLB points from one site compaired to the total of yours, then you cry and complain when someone posts your profits from only one site. WP Sir...
And since when did more PLBP make your answer qualified or more "right" than someone elses? -
Daize/Mordan, correct me if Im wrong, but very few players on this site are really good enough to pass up marginal +ev situations at a stars f/o FT, and I think those that are wouldnt do it anyway. All said, looks like a call to me
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Ok im back. Thanks for all of the responses, but i think a lot of people are missing my point. I in no way think this is an easy fold as a majority of people are saying, i also know this is a +EV situation for me to take an a great oppurtunity for me to get a lot of chips.
My question is if people would think about giving up a +EV situation at a final table if they think they have an edge of the remaining feild, obviously only a small +EV situation where i only have the person as a small dog against their range.
Whoever assumed i would not post this if i had won the hand you are completely wrong, i posted this hand to discuss because i feel it helps everyone including myself. -
RankMe -
I think in order to intelligently discuss that aspect of the hand we need to know more information about the stack sizes and the play level of the rest of the table.
If you have a huge edge on the rest of the table then maybe.
But if all the play is going to be preflop because of the blinds and stack sizes, then edges kind of even out somewhat over 5 cards.
Congrats on the final table showing and too bad on losing a huge flip.
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