Always a fine line between blinding out and going for the win...

23 left...

I'd like to hear your thoughts...please think it out thoroughly before your response (look at all data provided).



Full Tilt Poker Game #9258978701: $750,000 Guarantee (68654819), Table 262 - 10000/20000 Ante 2500 - No Limit Hold'em - 1:02:20 ET - 2008/12/01
Seat 1: Big_Lou-Aces (633,920)
Seat 2: mx4ever (180,026)
Seat 3: PickingYouApart (419,156)
Seat 4: megax82 (623,530)
Seat 5: MFPlayer1 (302,586)
Seat 6: Doc Sands (1,168,433)
Seat 8: Beyn (305,546)
Seat 9: andressoprano (955,600)
Big_Lou-Aces antes 2,500
mx4ever antes 2,500
PickingYouApart antes 2,500
megax82 antes 2,500
MFPlayer1 antes 2,500
Doc Sands antes 2,500
Beyn antes 2,500
andressoprano antes 2,500
andressoprano posts the small blind of 10,000
Big_Lou-Aces posts the big blind of 20,000
Dr Make It Rain (Observer): wowww
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mx4ever [As 9c]
TomAnMary (Observer): they put the chip leaders together oh oh
anticure (Observer): duece duece in da boof
andressoprano: lolJQ hh
Dr Make It Rain (Observer): wow
Dr Make It Rain (Observer): wow
mspoker48 (Observer): a milli
DrewAce34 (Observer): not gnna run like god all day
mx4ever has 15 seconds left to act
Dr Make It Rain (Observer): omggggg :(
mx4ever raises to 60,000
PickingYouApart folds
megax82 folds
MFPlayer1 folds
Doc Sands folds
nightbluffer (Observer): unreal
evanbigs (Observer): i just heared gun shot
LINDELE (Observer): Allez la Suisse il faut tenir
Beyn has 15 seconds left to act
Dr Make It Rain (Observer): GG Ace
Beyn raises to 303,046, and is all in
andressoprano folds
Big_Lou-Aces folds
mx4ever calls 117,526, and is all in
Beyn shows [Qs Ad]
mx4ever shows [As 9c]
Uncalled bet of 125,520 returned to Beyn
Lapchong (Observer): 9
*** FLOP *** [5h 8c Jc]
Lapchong (Observer): 9
Lapchong (Observer): 9
Lapchong (Observer): 9
Lapchong (Observer): 9
*** TURN *** [5h 8c Jc] [8d]
Lapchong (Observer): 9
*** RIVER *** [5h 8c Jc 8d] [3h]
Beyn shows a pair of Eights
mx4ever shows a pair of Eights
Beyn wins the pot (405,052) with a pair of Eights
mx4ever stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 405,052 | Rake 0
Board: [5h 8c Jc 8d 3h]
Seat 1: Big_Lou-Aces (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 2: mx4ever showed [As 9c] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 3: PickingYouApart folded before the Flop
Seat 4: megax82 folded before the Flop
Seat 5: MFPlayer1 folded before the Flop
Seat 6: Doc Sands folded before the Flop
Seat 8: Beyn (button) showed [Qs Ad] and won (405,052) with a pair of Eights
Seat 9: andressoprano (small blind) folded before the Flop

after a thorough examination raise fold is clearly the superior option.

I am shoving here. It is towards the bottom (not at the bottom, but very close) of my shoving range, but I do shove. I assume that because you only 3x'd it that you were willing to either call an 3 bet all-in, or shove regardless of the flop, no?

My thoughts are that if I was going to get involved with A9, then I'm going to just open shove given the blind level and your stack at that point. I was watching that hand, but was on a diff table at the time (finished 12th, lost my AJ to KQ grr), and actually assumed when you raised 1/3 of your stack that you were repping a bigger hand, since anything marginal like A9 is a shove and hope nobody wakes up with something better. raising the amount you did with such a small stack made me put you on a trap hand, as though you were hoping for a re-raise or call. In that sense maybe it wasn't such a bad play against a bigger stack that might have been suspicious (as I would have been), but against another small stack with AQ he's pushing for sure. That's my opinion anyway. I think personally that you had to shove, and he had to call. But hey, what do I know - I didn't take it down either! :)

hmmm dont think its the worst letting the bb hit u as u aint gonna get a ton of respect shipping with your stack utg kinda hard getting past 8 hands

shove or fold maybe go with the latter n try hang in there and short stack ninja it and find a better spot in such a big mtt

60 to make it look stronger i guess eh bet u felt liek shit having to call teh rest lol

sigh gg

I WOULD GO ALL IN

yes there is a very fine line of blinding out and going for the win, but i believe if you are actually going for the win then you should have shoved ~190k having 3-4 players behind with something like 54-98 type hands which play better imo against a calling range then a9 (obv assuming that your 60k raise is essentially a shove which proved to be) with 7ppl behind. all this assuming you are going for the win! so basically what im saying is, if you are going for the win be willing to die alittle earlier then this with alittle worse of a hand then a9! by the way i prefer shoving 67 way more then i do a9 in this situation, for exact reasons as the result of this particular hand! but hey i never win so what do i know!

 

Originally Posted by Suitedace87

by the way i prefer shoving 67 way more then i do a9 in this situation, for exact reasons as the result of this particular hand! but hey i never win so what do i know!

and i love shoving A9 bc it does better vs a calling range than 67, funny how that works

I think A9o is slightly too weak to be shoving here personally. I think I'd draw the line at ATo. Still, A9o isn't a horrible shove. Probably quite close to a break even push overall.

this is a standard shove. it sucks that you ran into a bigger ace and you were deep in a big tournament but its still a standard play

I still see people doing this and i laugh. Whats the point of opening rather than shoving when < 10bb's. You dont look any stronger imo and your just giving a bigstack the chance to move you in cuz you look scared money at that point, and LOL ive seen people raise-fold there.

I did see this final table, though, from 5 people to the winner and I cant believe this was a 750K ft. Never see a flop, when they do, pfr is cbetting pot, tibzen folds down to 3bb's twice, sands is opening every sb to like 2.4x and soprano instafolds about 10 orbits in a row when they are both 40bb stacks. Im still wondering how these players make it this far, run like god i guess.

 

Originally Posted by Suitedace87

i would rather draw to 6 live outs instead of 3 if i am trying to win i feel like i would rather insure the 3 more outs and go in alittle behind then pray that i have 3 outs and go in with an above average hand!

and when he shows up with 77-KK instead of AJ+ i bet u wish u shoved the A9 hand so that ur not drawing to 0 live cards. take out poker stove and run A9 and 67 vs. calling ranges and see which one works out best.

limp fold

 

Originally Posted by calhoun137

The odds of being dealt a pocket pair is 3/51 or about 6%, there are six pocket pairs that have you crushed, 99-AA, so the odds of one of the other 8 players having 99-AA is

8*6/13*3/51 = 21%.

If there are only two players left this becomes 5.25%.

The odds of being dealt A10-AK is (4/52)(16/51) = 2.5%, so the odds one of the 8 remaining players wakes up with A10+ is

8*2.5% = 20%

whereas with only 2 players left this is 5%.

i think this math is wrong. ur saying that if the odds of something is X%, the odds that 1 of 2 ppl having it is X% multiplied by 2. thats like saying if i flip a coin twice, the odds that its heads at least once is 100% bc 50% for one times 2 is 100%

 

Originally Posted by okse54

i think this math is wrong. ur saying that if the odds of something is X%, the odds that 1 of 2 ppl having it is X% multiplied by 2. thats like saying if i flip a coin twice, the odds that its heads at least once is 100% bc 50% for one times 2 is 100%

This is the difference between independent and conditional probabilities. Independent probabilities add, conditional probabilities multiply.

The odds of getting heads twice in a row is clearly conditional, it depends on getting heads the first time.

The odds of being dealt a pocket pair does depend on what cards other players have been dealt, but since I dont have any information about what cards have already been dealt, I am assuming that the chance to be dealt a card is 1/(number of unknown cards). If you wanted to make this conditional, you would have to specify two starting hands and then multiply the probability for getting them both in the same deal.

In this calculation there is a 100% chance the guy has a9, so the other probabilities add because they are independent, but actually i forget to take out a nine and an ace, I was just trying to do a rough calculation and I doubt it will change the result very much.