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Fun FTP 150 seat WSOP satty bubble spot...wtf to do

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  1. shane3769 shane3769 is offline

    United States

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:28pm)

    Ok to set up here, important facts:

    There are 157 left, I am in 154th place. 150 get $12,000 seat, 151 - 3400, 152- 2200, 153 - 1400

    If I am on the button I SNAP fold this obvi. However those few hands closer to the blinds are huge. I time bank and am really unsure if i can fold getting close to the blinds, but checking the other tables....is not looking good. I estimate i have about 8-10 hands before being forced all in

    Raiser is the only one still raising, but obvi his range is going to be semi weighted in that spot, but hes clearly playing still to knock people out or just f with us. Id estimate range at 77-aa, aj-ak, maybe kq type hands

    What are we doing? fold/pray, or push/pray????

    Full Tilt Poker Game #12958975772: 150 Seat Main Event Guarantee (83239154), Table 406 - 3000/6000 Ante 750 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:29:51 ET - 2009/06/22
    Seat 1: awojj (79,251)
    Seat 2: bla2mb (57,354)
    Seat 3: Sherlock1402 (41,266)
    Seat 4: LeJambon (121,594)
    Seat 5: shane476 (19,831)
    Seat 6: amountain (33,905)
    Seat 7: navtones (85,932)
    Seat 8: COSMOWNED (27,038), is sitting out
    awojj antes 750
    bla2mb antes 750
    Sherlock1402 antes 750
    LeJambon antes 750
    shane476 antes 750
    amountain antes 750
    navtones antes 750
    COSMOWNED antes 750
    COSMOWNED posts the small blind of 3,000
    awojj posts the big blind of 6,000
    The button is in seat #7
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to shane476 [Ts Td]
    Sherlock1402 has been disconnected
    bla2mb has 15 seconds left to act
    COSMOWNED has returned
    Sherlock1402 has 15 seconds left to act
    Sherlock1402 has timed out
    Sherlock1402 folds
    LeJambon raises to 18,000
    shane476 has 15 seconds left to act
    shane476 has requested TIME
     
  2. zander zander is offline anomaly in his crotch

    Malaysia

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:33pm) in reply to shane3769

    I think you have to fold here. You might be 154th, but there are likely several others with similar stack sizes who are going through the blinds first. It's very unlikely you get folds if you open shove given your stack size, but I'd rather be the first one in than knowing absolutely I have to fade a big stack here...
  3. resilient resilient is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:37pm) in reply to shane3769

    his range is way wider than than that... almost ATC. Brutal spot, I probably shove it in as a 70% fav to lock up my seat vs. his 1 overcard... his range includes 2 overs, and any pair, but also suited connected cards, in addition to his one-overcard hands...
     
  4. daphishermen daphishermen is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:37pm) in reply to shane3769

    Lol, Jesus that is a tough spot.

    However I guess I think about it this way.
    Call and lose = 0$.

    Call and win you pretty much lock up a seat = 12K.

    I would say your EV if you fold is probably around 8K$ (based on 67% chance of winning a seat if you fold this hand and just try to hang around)

    I guess you are > 67% against his range so I call.

    When I began typing of this response I was gonna say fold, but typing this up actually convinced me to call.
     
  5. adamsapple19 adamsapple19 is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:38pm) in reply to resilient

     
    Originally Posted by resilient View Post

    his range is way wider than than that... almost ATC. Brutal spot, I probably shove it in as a 70% fav to lock up my seat vs. his 1 overcard... his range includeds 2 overs, and any pair but also suited connected cards, in addition to his one-overcard hands...

     
  6. beaviszach beaviszach is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:44pm) in reply to shane3769

    wow, very sick spot
     
  7. shane3769 shane3769 is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:47pm) in reply to shane3769

    Just for reference he was absoultely raising any 2 on the button/cutoff, but he seemed to just be effing around and seemed to have no real desire to raise the bigger stacks...so range is probably a little lighter than posted, but i doubt its THAT huge

    also, this spot will basically never happen again, i just could not figure out all day today what the right spot was. Also, i am absolutely going for the $12k and am not afraid to do so, however it is a very significant cash for me if i win.
    the result is pretty irrelevant but i will post it in a bit and the number of hands till the bubble broke...just curious what people think
     
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  8. resilient resilient is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:48pm) in reply to shane3769

    also, if he is French as his name suggests, then there is a good chance he's sipping wine at 5 AM, celebrating his win, and raising ATC like Jean Vandevelde pulling out a fairway wood from the rough on the 18th, with a 3 shot lead at the British Open... and giggling while he pushes Americans around with his stack. This would make the call slightly easier, but in any event, his range is really wide.... and you're very likely going to have to play a hand to get in... might as well be this one.
     
  9. Werglum Werglum is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 9:51pm) in reply to resilient

    I lol'd resilient
  10. DaPretzel DaPretzel is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 10:11pm) in reply to shane3769

    I think it's a shove. Being in 154th place already, and with an M of less than 2, I'd say it'd be pretty much impossible to fold your way to a seat. You better believe the other shortstacks that have more chips than you aren't gonna let go of them that easily. So you have to get your chips in sometime. If you get them in now, you very likely dominate your opponent and will lock up a seat. If you wait til the blinds pass through you, you'll have absolutely no fold equity when you get your chips in and will have to beat at least 2 others.

    The other option would be to push one of the next 3 hands BEFORE the blinds hit you while you have fold equity. Just one blind steal would go a looooooong way towards a seat. Problem is, you can't afford to wait for a hand if you do this, and I'm not sure how much fold equity you'd really have since there are always those people who don't have to worry and just wanna call to crush people's dreams. So I'd just as soon get them in while you have a hand with some showdown value.
     
  11. patvoytko patvoytko is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 10:23pm) in reply to DaPretzel

    1. id tank

    2. put all sharp objects, handguns, and any other self destructive devices safely locked away

    3. flush the key down the toilet

    4. return to computer seat

    5. shove
  12. patvoytko patvoytko is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 10:49pm) in reply to patvoytko

    results?
  13. shane3769 shane3769 is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 11:07pm) in reply to shane3769

    going to bed so ill post....would like more thoughts though.

    the $ bubble lasted 7 more hands, and the whole thing ended 12 hands later, so i would have blinded down and needed to get very lucky to survive

    someone mentioned the $ equity which would be good to look at....however 67% to fold into a seat is too high. I think even saying 33% dont cash, 33% cash 151-153, and 33% seat may be a little liberal, but in looking at those numbers id estimate the equity at about $5500. If we THINK the 10-10 is, on average, a 60/40 favorite, equity there is about $7200.

    Results arent all that important, and i THINK after seeing some good responses and looking a little more at the $$$ equite, shoving is moderately correct...but both options suck. In any case, winning $12k coin flips FTW.....

    shane476 raises to 19,081, and is all in
    LeJambon calls 1,081
    shane476 shows [Ts Td]
    LeJambon shows [Ks Ad]
    *** FLOP *** [Qd 6c 5s]
    *** TURN *** [Qd 6c 5s] [8h]
    *** RIVER *** [Qd 6c 5s 8h] [7h]
    shane476 shows a pair of Tens
    LeJambon shows Ace King high
    shane476 wins the pot (53,162) with a pair of Tens
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 53,162 | Rake 0
    Board: [Qd 6c 5s 8h 7h]
    Seat 1: awojj (big blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 2: bla2mb folded before the Flop
    Seat 3: Sherlock1402 folded before the Flop
    Seat 4: LeJambon showed [Ks Ad] and lost with Ace King high
    Seat 5: shane476 showed [Ts Td] and won (53,162) with a pair of Tens
    Seat 6: amountain folded before the Flop
    Seat 7: navtones (button) folded before the Flop
    Seat 8: COSMOWNED (small blind) folded before the Flop
     
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  14. heavyj80 heavyj80 is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 11:14pm) in reply to shane3769

    weee congrats. yea ultra sick. that would have been the most intense board ever for me id stand up and yell things the whole time probably "PLEASE JESUS DONT DO ME LIKE THAT MAN"
  15. imbrokenow imbrokenow is offline

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    Jun 22nd, 2009 (6/22/2009 11:51pm) in reply to heavyj80

    congrats man no doubt good job
  16. Adam Adam is offline Emperor

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    Jun 23rd, 2009 (6/23/2009 12:11am) in reply to shane3769

    Glad you won :) That guy didn't need to win that hand, so works out for everyone.

    That is a really sick spot, BTW. It's especially tough because it seems like a decent amount of people actually know to fold late in these things now. I think you're better than 60/40 against your opponent's range here, but again you would know better than me if you were at the table. I just think given his stack and the size of the other stacks, he's just not in a lot of danger and can be the guy trying to end the thing.

    That said, given the number of bad players on Full Tilt (usually), you might have been best off just trying to fold your way in and hope a few other people screw up or get unlucky.
     
  17. LeJambon LeJambon is offline

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    Jun 30th, 2009 (6/30/2009 3:16pm) in reply to shane3769

    Hey Shane, I think you did absolultely the right thing, took a lot of guts to make the call but at least now you've got a seat at the WSOP! Good luck in Vegas...
  18. bluffslv bluffslv is offline

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    Jun 30th, 2009 (6/30/2009 5:03pm) in reply to LeJambon

    Sick sick spot, even sicker hold! congrats!
  19. nuttedup nuttedup is offline

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    Jun 30th, 2009 (6/30/2009 5:08pm) in reply to shane3769

    I think it's a fold, but what do I know I was the bubble boy last year.
  20. JmL1984 JmL1984 is offline

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    Jun 30th, 2009 (6/30/2009 5:23pm) in reply to shane3769

    shove. if the guy is raising light than you have to get it in here...you have 3 BBs left and will have to get it in at least 1 time before the bubble breaks, so i think this is the most +EV spot to get it in.
    it is an annoying spot because u could be in a flip for 12k, but in your position you dont have a choice... you will be blinded out way before the bubble burst and almost have to double up. plus, you could very easily be a 70-80% fave...worst case you are probably a coin flip (and even leading that when it comes to %'s)

    edit: saw results, didnt know they were there. that AK was almost worst case scenario, but you made the right play and you were rewarded. congrats on ur seat.
  21. mdshack14 mdshack14 is offline

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    Jun 30th, 2009 (6/30/2009 5:25pm) in reply to shane3769

    Ridiculously sick spot but I think you made the correct play........SIIIIIIIIIIIIIICK HOLD!!!
     
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