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Getting it in on a drawy flop despite prob being behind villain??

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  1. Dionysus Dionysus is offline

    Ireland

    Posts: 37
    Joined: Oct 08

    May 1st, 2011 (5/1/2011 1:27pm)

    Should I call the flop 3bet or shove despite prob being behind. With the money in the pot and so many draws I think a shove is the correct play? Thoughts appreciated....

    Full Tilt Poker Game #30218190691: $4,000 Guarantee (234589016), Table 129 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:37:15 ET - 2011/04/30
    Seat 2: russgowatz (28,428)
    Seat 3: ItsNoLimitBaby (9,850)
    Seat 4: -QQuartz- (17,016)
    Seat 5: iPokerLEGEND (14,800)
    Seat 6: dinuionut88 (5,582)
    Seat 7: akira162 (34,080)
    Seat 8: ManilaFish (11,755)
    Seat 9: Zockapaule (19,960)
    russgowatz antes 50
    ItsNoLimitBaby antes 50
    -QQuartz- antes 50
    iPokerLEGEND antes 50
    dinuionut88 antes 50
    akira162 antes 50
    ManilaFish antes 50
    Zockapaule antes 50
    -QQuartz- posts the small blind of 250
    iPokerLEGEND posts the big blind of 500
    The button is in seat #3
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to -QQuartz- [9c 8c]
    dinuionut88 has 15 seconds left to act
    dinuionut88 folds
    akira162 calls 500
    ManilaFish folds
    Zockapaule folds
    russgowatz folds
    ItsNoLimitBaby folds
    -QQuartz- calls 250
    iPokerLEGEND checks
    *** FLOP *** [8d 7c 5c]
    -QQuartz- checks
    iPokerLEGEND bets 1,500
    akira162 raises to 3,000

    ????
  2. Likeabull Likeabull is offline

    SHREVEPORT, LA
    United States

    Posts: 63
    Joined: Apr 11

    May 1st, 2011 (5/1/2011 2:49pm) in reply to Dionysus

    Calling would be bad with all of the draws, unless you think BB will 3bet behind you. Shove could lose potential value of making your hand if it induces folds, but would take all the stress out of being out of position. 3 betting to 6456 might get you one caller, but then you are oop on turn and you would not want to check/fold if you miss or get checked back if you hit, so you should only do 3bet if you think you will get 4bet. So, squeeze shove is probably best imo.
  3. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    New York, NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,121
    Joined: Feb 06

    May 1st, 2011 (5/1/2011 5:42pm) in reply to Likeabull

    I just wrote a long reply but lost it when P5s timed out posting it.

    Basically, you're only behind 40/60 against made hands (sets/straights). Against everything else you're flipping or ahead 55/45 or 60/40. Against villain's entire range, you likely have at least 50% equity, so I'm getting it in here.

    Overshove is better than a small 3-bet. A small 3-bet could lead to a flat from the villain. If villain flats, he could shut down on the turn if you hit your hand or you stuck shoving on a board where villain either improved and has significantly more equity than he did on the flop. For those reasons, overshove>3-betting to 6.5k or so.
     969 
  4. bazingaking bazingaking is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 146
    Joined: Apr 11

    May 1st, 2011 (5/1/2011 8:09pm) in reply to tyson219

    This is probably one of the best flops for your hand, I suggest re-raising to about 9- 10k, it looks as if you are leaving yourself folding equity, and may encourage an opponent to re-shove and then you can call. A shove would be a massive overbet to the pot and a show of huge strength, which will probably gain you less value, because more people are likely to fold to it.

    Making the 3 bet smaller instead of all in gives your opponents very little fold equity, forcing them to nearly always play for their stack in an attempt to isolate you.

    If someone calls your 3bet, then the pot will be huge on the turn in comparison to your stacks. You would shove regardless of the turn card, and the pot odds would be about 6 (turn bet) : 30 - (10 (flop bet) + 10 + 3 + 1 + 6 (turn bet)) odds , or 1:5, so given these huge pot odds it would be nearly impossible for the villain to fold on the turn, regardless of the turn card.

    You have pot odds of about 1.3:1 if one opponent calls.

    Your opponents will probably (call) re-shove all in with: a set, bottom two/top and bottom, top two, a flush draw with overcards, a made straight or an open ended straight flush draw.

    Assuming we are heads up, and we managed to get all the money in the middle:

    Against a set you are still 39% to win, 0.39 x 22 when we win = 8.58, 0.61 x 16 when we lose = -9.76, overall a negative chip play if he has a set = -1.18k.

    3 potential sets on board, (55, 77 and 88) 3 combinations of 55 and 3 of 77 and 1 of 88 (we hold one) = 7 combinations.

    Against a higher club draw, with two overcards, you are 58% to win, 0.58 x 22 = +12.76, 0.42 x -16 = - 6.72, overall a positive chip play of = +6.04k.

    Higher club draws, with two overcards, but only limped pre-flop / checked option = AcTc, KcTc, KcJc, QcTc. 1 combination of each = 4 combinations.

    Against bottom two pair/top and bottom, you are 59% to win, 0.59 x 22 = +12.98, 0.41 x -16 = -6.56, overall a positive chip play of = 6.42k.

    Two possibilities, 75 and 85, combinations of 75 = 9, combinations of 85 (two 8s taken, one 5 taken) = 6 combinations = overall 15 combinations.

    Against top two pair, you are 54% to win, 0.54 x 22 = +11.88, 0.46 x -16 = -7.36, overall a positive chip play of =+ 4.52k.

    One possible top two pair 87, two 8s taken, one 7 taken = 6 combinations.

    Against a made straight you are still 43% to win, 0.43 x 22 = +9.46, 0.57 x -16 = -9.12, overall a positive chip play of = + 0.34k

    Two possibilities of a made straight, = 64 and 69 , 15 (no 6c4c) combinations of 64 and 12 combinations of 69 (one 9 taken) = 28 overall combinations.

    Against an open ended straight flush draw, with the 6c and a blank you are 82% to win, 0.82 x 22 = 18.04, 0.18 x -16 = -2.88, overall a highly positive chip play of = +15.16k

    There are various possibilities such as: Ax6c, Kx6c, Qx6c, Jx6c, Tx6c, 6x6c, 3x6c, 2x6c because we have one player in the BB. 3 combinations of each = 24 overall combinations.

    Therefore the probability one opponent has a set = 7/ (7+4+15+6+28+24) = 7/84 = 8.3%. The overall equity is therefore 0.083 x -1.18 = -0.1k, the equity you have against a set, and the probability that the villain(s) has/have a set.

    For a club draw with two overcards: the probability is 4/84 = 4.8%. The overall equity is therefore 0.048 x 6.04 = +0.29k.

    For bottom two/top and bottom: the probability is 15/84 = 17.9%. The overall equity is therefore 0.179 x 6.42 = +1.15k.

    For top two pair = 6/84 = 7%. The overall equity = 0.7 x 4.52 = +0.32k.

    For a made straight = 28/84 = 33%. The overall equity = 0.33 x 0.34 = +0.11k

    For an open ended straight flush draw = 24/84 = 28.6%. The overall equity = 0.286 x 15.16 = +4.33k

    The overall chip equity, assuming only one villain calls, is: +6.1k.

    (bear in mind that since there are two opponents, there is twice the chance of getting called, and twice the chance of getting in a +6.1k equity situation, so an even more beneficial position).

    If both villains shove, you will roughly still have a decent equity of 40% against both of them, and you will be playing (ignoring the small 3bet and view it as a shove but in a better way (all you want is for them to shove over you)) 16k:38k = better than 1:2, so you only need to be about 30% to win, and since against both opponents' ranges you are 40% to win, this is a positive chip play, if both villains go all in.

    Hence in all possible outcome of you betting (one person shoves, both people shove, once calls other shoves) you are making a positive chip play.

    (note: does this mean the equity doubles because we are against two villains but assuming only one will call = twice the chance?)
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