Originally Posted by Skitz0Frenik

I'd guess that 90%+ who try fail within a few years (either financially, mentally, emotionally)

This was going to be my point. What is your definition of fail? My roll recently has taken quite a hit, I have gotten very frustrated, and I have kind of decided it isn't exactly what I think I want to do for very much longer. Here in a year or two I wouldn't be shocked if I was done, but my guess is it will be on my own terms. I could see it being construed as failure under certain definitions and not under others.

I also think the "career" span of online poker players is relatively short. Basically, you figure out it isn't what you were hoping for, or thought it would be, and move onto something maybe a little more permanent. Sure you get to control your hours and make decent money playing a game, but the truth is, its a grind. Honestly, sometimes I wish I had my brothers job, and after living with me for the Summer he swears he would NEVER want to do what I do. He works probably 10-15 more hours a week than I do, on someone elses schedule, and can't mail it in when he doesn't feel like it. Even with all of that he thinks what I do is more frustrating/difficult than what he does. He does make good money though, so that probably helps his outlook on his career.

There is no doubt there are plenty of people that take a shot and miss. I would say 75% or more that attempt it. There are some that take a shot, hit, and are broke in a year. Others will bust their roll a few times, grind it back up, and make substantial profit over and over again and sustain themselves that way for a decent amount of time. It really depends on your definition.

Given the most obvious one - someone that goes for it, busts their roll and thus have to get a job and give up "the dream," I would estimated somewhere around 75%ish... no proof at all of that, I just know I see a ton of people that take a shot without any clue of variance, or volume necessary to really turn profit, or just general knowledge.

Edit: I am in no way a high stakes pro, or make a substantial income, but I do pay all my bills and enjoy some living comfort... I still hate this damn game.

 

Originally Posted by rtrenton

Every few days there is another person stating that they are thinking of going pro or have decided to take the plunge and play poker full time.

I want to be supportive and I really hope they succeed. Heck, one day I may want to take the jump myself. But let's be honest, how many of these posters will actually make it as a professional poker player. For arguement's sake, let's call a professional someone who grinds out at least $60,000 a year. (Not much, but it is a good, solid income depending on where you live).

Finally, I know that it may be hard to swallow your pride and admit it, but is there anyone who can tell us what it was like to fail? Or do you know someone who did fail. A person went "pro" for a few months or years and then quit because of some challenge? What was their toughest challenge that caused them to quit their dream?

I would say that 99% of the people who try to go pro playing online MTTs fail. Maybe 90% of those who try to play cash games fail.

Anyone who decides to "go pro" before proving over at least a year or two that they can average at least around $50 per hour is almost certain to fail.

Also, I definitely agree on the $60,000 number being waay too low unless you live in a very low income area. I live in New York city (obviously more expensive area to live), I would say that to live here and play online while paying your own health insurance etc, having no credit, no retirement plan, and the obvious lack of stability that comes wt the changing landscape of the game (legaly and improving competition), I would need to be able to make at least $200,000 a year to even consider going pro.

In a less expensive city or suburb I could see maybe 110 - 120k being enough.

Also if you are smart enough to play pro poker you are probably smart enough to make at least 100k a year at a reg job while still making your 15 - 20k on the side through poker. I would be willing to guess that playing 8 - 10 hours of multi tabling poker each day is going to be a much tougher job than most regular day jobs. Due to this fact I probably wouldnt really consider pro poker unless I either:
1) got super lucky and took down a $500k + tournament and knew that I could make 150k a year playing
or
2) Knew for a fact that I could make at least 200k per year playing poker which would allow me to set aside 30 - 40k per year after taxes and put into a retirement account or invest in real estate. I would need to make enough basically so that I could invest a decent portion of it elasewhere so that I would have my money working for me and could have some sort of end goal beyond poker.

For a MTT player I could see a lot of guys having a year where they run Uberhot in a few tourneys, make a couple hundred grand and decide its time to go pro. Then those same guys grinding away for the next year and making like 30 -40k and burning out completely.

For cash I could see those people who make like $20 per hour playing cash gmes but tell themselves "I'm going to go pro first and THEN as a pro my game will improve to the point where I'm making $50+ per hour" only to realize that NOPE, you are still making $20 per hour because you just cant beat the games beyond the NL200.

Honestly, I dont see how you can decide to turn pro and fail. Obviously, you need to be a consistent winning player for several years to even think about turning pro. Why would a consistent winning player start losing just because they decided to "turn pro"? I think more people will just stop playing full time because they are burned out, stressed out etc..... How many 18-23 year olds will fail that have crushed poker for 6 months and are ready to turn pro???? lol im guessing 98%

 

Originally Posted by BB_GUEZ_BB

Where is $60k gonna give you a nice life? With student loans, car payments, bills, mortgage this will never cover it....

are you like 16 or something? maybe youre at college but no way youve ever tried living alone... gl getting a 60k/yr+ job when you graduate dude.

 

Originally Posted by kornkid

Honestly, I dont see how you can decide to turn pro and fail. Obviously, you need to be a consistent winning player for several years to even think about turning pro. Why would a consistent winning player start losing just because they decided to "turn pro"? I think more people will just stop playing full time because they are burned out, stressed out etc..... How many 18-23 year olds will fail that have crushed poker for 6 months and are ready to turn pro???? lol im guessing 98%

I agree with this, theres no reason that somoeone who's been crushing part time for a couple of years wont continue to crush full time at the same rate (more true wt cash players than MTTers but probably wt both). I just think that there are probably a LOT of people who use poker as an excuse to quit a job that they hate and just assume that if they NOW really really put in the work they will be able to double there hourly rates that they were making as part timers.

If someone as been making like $80 per hour 15 hours a week for like 3 years while earning less than say $75,000 per year at their full time job then they should seriously consider turning "pro". I just think that you should be confident that your yearly incmome as a full time poker player will be at leasst 50% higher than it was at your old job in order to compensate for the risks involved.

Remember, you arent just risking a years income by deciding to play poker full time for a year. If you have alegitimate career and just walk away to play poker and then say a year or two later decided "oh well, that didnt work I'll go back to the reg job" how are you going to explain in an interview what youve been doing for the past year or two??

The reason that most pro players come straight out of college these days is that college is the one time wher you have 30+ hours a week where you can pretty much play poker full or near full time and should still be easily able to hand classes. If you start playing as a Frosh in college you can basically have like an incubator program where you will have 4 years to see just how much money that you can make in poker. Also, when your in school you have few expenses so you can just reinvest like 90% of your winnings into your bankroll and can move up to higher stakes wt less risk.

I also think a lot of people you probably see posting on forums about "going pro" are probably the kind of people who are set up to fail. I think most people who are good enough to where they won't fail know it and don't make a post asking people if they should or telling people they are. They just do it.

 

Originally Posted by BB_GUEZ_BB

Where is $60k gonna give you a nice life? With student loans, car payments, bills, mortgage this will never cover it....

Get rid of the mortgage and get off the coasts. $60k is plenty out here.

i'm in south carolina and have put myself through school, almost paid off my car, have a good apartment, have money in the stock market, and have taken a ton of trips and i have never made over 50k in a year until this year.

And really once you buy a house and have land and pay off your car then all you really have to pay is property tax, insurance, food (unless you farm), and any excess things you want. Once your house and car are paid you should be able to make it off less than 30k/year. You can find people spending less than 5k/year in some places. That's definately extreme but people saying 60k isnt enough to live off of and the one NYC guy saying 100k or whatever. That is crazy.

 

Originally Posted by MacGyver72

i'm in south carolina and have put myself through school, almost paid off my car, have a good apartment, have money in the stock market, and have taken a ton of trips and i have never made over 50k in a year until this year.

And really once you buy a house and have land and pay off your car then all you really have to pay is property tax, insurance, food (unless you farm), and any excess things you want. Once your house and car are paid you should be able to make it off less than 30k/year. You can find people spending less than 5k/year in some places. That's definately extreme but people saying 60k isnt enough to live off of and the one NYC guy saying 100k or whatever. That is crazy.

What I meant about the 100k minimum is that 100k playing poker and dealing wt the risk, lack of long term security due to legal landscape, paying your own health insurance etc, that 100k may be more like making 60k in a regular stable job. Obviously people can live off regular jobs where you make 60k.

Also, most people who can win even 60k a year at poker have to be pretty intelligent, work hard at playing, and put in a lot of hours so most of those people could probably get pretty good jobs outside of poker that incur less risk.

Also, I may have underestimated how cheap it can be to live in some areas of the country but thats why I said 110 - 120 k if you live either in a city or suburb of a city. I probably should have clarified my definition of city to mean Major City, ie. NYC, Chicago, Boston, Phili etc. I have heard that down south and in other areas of the country you can get by very nicely on 50 -60k.

Let reality make your decision. The best thing you can do is spend $10 to become a member of thepokerdb. Spend 2 hours researching every poker player you can think of. Look at their ROI and look at their profits. You will quickly learn that many of the "brand name" online poker players that we all repect actually make less money than you think. Only the absolute best of the best make hundreds of thousands of dollars per year. Then ask yourself, am i as talented and lucky as lilholdem or AJK? Or as level headed and commited as Jon turner? And yes, you have to be good and lucky.

I would stongly urge anyone to get a real job with benefits and play poker on the side to determine if you can cut it. Always play poker, but just don't make it your job. if you won $100k playing poker already , you wouldnt ask if you can cut it or not - you would just do it.

 

Originally Posted by threeven

I also think a lot of people you probably see posting on forums about "going pro" are probably the kind of people who are set up to fail. I think most people who are good enough to where they won't fail know it and don't make a post asking people if they should or telling people they are. They just do it.

So this. There's no reason to waste time talking about it when you could be doing it.

It's interesting that a mere 18-24 months ago, threads were riddled with a consistent wave of posts saying how it is not that difficult to make 50-100k per year, even grinding games as small as 1/2 and 2/4NL.

Nowadays though, the popular theory is that it is a much tougher gig. Which I completely agree with. The new money has dried up, and the real soft spots that used to be handing out their money are few and far between. Obviously a number of factors have led to a steep decline in new players to the game. Sadly, my belief is that its largely due to the ugly scandals (building a perception that cheating is rampant) and how the gonvernment has so poorly handled the situation (many people think its illegal to play online poker).

I think the game can bounce back, after it is someday regulated. But right now, I don't envy the grinders out there trying to make a living.

 

Originally Posted by periferel

dude 60k is plenty if your not a nyc yuppie who owes 200k to nyu, 40k to a car dealership and 2k/month to a landlord for an apartment the size of a closet.

LOL at how this is so true.

Yea man, I know people who don't have as many bills with 200K household income and still need more money and they live in a friggnin 1 bedroom apt!

Canada ftw.

thats crazy. Whatever your making now...just add on 15% (health insurance, bills, ect...) and if you can make that playing. Then imo your a pro. As long as your not making less money than b4, i dont see a problem.

60k/year sucks if you ever want to raise a family.