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Good fold in .50/1 6 max game?

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  1. Clark Clark is offline

    Posts: 55
    Joined: Mar 09

    Oct 19th, 2009 (10/19/2009 4:02pm)

    <span>good fold? villian had low agression factor</span>
    <span>
    <span id="lw_1255982447_0">Full Tilt Poker Game</span> #<span id="lw_1255982447_1">15433379094</span>: Table Blowing (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:14:15 ET - 2009/10/18
    Seat 1: TrashCardLover ($99.50)
    Seat 2: BLINBMAN ($158.15)
    Seat 3: Unkle_Rukus ($123.40)
    Seat 4: veeloop ($299.40)
    Seat 5: forgot2nut ($101.95)
    Seat 6: ClarkRussell ($382.20)
    ClarkRussell posts the small blind of $0.50
    TrashCardLover posts the big blind of $1
    The button is in seat #5
    *** <span id="lw_1255982447_2">HOLE CARDS</span> ***
    Dealt to ClarkRussell [3c 3d]
    BLINBMAN raises to $3.50
    Unkle_Rukus folds
    veeloop calls $3.50
    forgot2nut folds
    ClarkRussell calls $3
    TrashCardLover folds
    *** FLOP *** [3h 9s Kh]
    ClarkRussell checks
    BLINBMAN checks
    veeloop bets $7.50
    ClarkRussell raises to $17
    BLINBMAN folds
    veeloop has 15 seconds left to act
    veeloop calls $9.50
    *** TURN *** [3h 9s Kh] [5h]
    ClarkRussell bets $26
    veeloop has 15 seconds left to act
    veeloop has requested TIME
    veeloop raises to $66
    ClarkRussell has 15 seconds left to act
    ClarkRussell has requested TIME
    ClarkRussell folds
    Uncalled bet of $40 returned to veeloop
    veeloop mucks
    veeloop wins the pot ($94.50)
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot $97.50 | Rake $3
    Board: [3h 9s Kh 5h]
    Seat 1: TrashCardLover (big blind) folded before the Flop
    Seat 2: BLINBMAN folded on the Flop
    Seat 3: Unkle_Rukus didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 4: veeloop collected ($94.50), mucked
    Seat 5: forgot2nut (button) didn't bet (folded)
    Seat 6: ClarkRussell (small blind) folded on the Turn
    </span>
  2. jbravo18 jbravo18 is offline

    Norman, OK
    United States

    Posts: 178
    Joined: Jun 07

    Oct 20th, 2009 (10/20/2009 1:23am) in reply to Clark

    I'd call the raise. You're getting 3.36:1 immediate odds laid to you with potentially another 200BB's to play for. One hand that can be ruled out in almost all situations is KK, so you are beat by a flush, and 99. Discounting 99 as a purely cold deck, I'm assuming the villain has a made flush, or is bluffing two pair or a pair and a flush draw like KsQh. Granted he has the low aggro factor, so I will also discount any draws. Assuming he a has a made flush, and is not bluffing, actual odds are 3.39:1. The pot odds make it a close call. It is about even money to call the raise; however the profit comes from the implied odds hitting the boat on the river and extracting a call from the action on the river. The $40 call is just the price of doing business. Add in the percentage of the time he is bluffing, has two pair, or has the pair with the flush draw, and it makes the call on the turn +EV for sure. Not to mention the possibility of reraising to take the pot down there. OOP a 4th heart would be very difficult to play on the river. But if you know he has a flush, I'd try and determine if he's the type of player who'd call a bet on the river with a paired board, whether it be a lead, or a checkraise.
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