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a good one for the math wizards

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  1. inissint inissint is offline

    Fort Lauderdale, FL
    United States

    Posts: 2,134
    Joined: Mar 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 5:55pm)

    interesting i think...this may be why i almost never make this small of a reraise in a sng...obv i was sick after thinking what a donk she is for calling pre but then i was thinking i probably gave her just about the odds she needed (with implied factored in...assuming she can reasonably put me on overpair where she hits and i am shoving any board with less than queen high)...can someone plz do the math and let me know what amount i coulda reraised to price her out...probably pretty close to what i did, but i think i needed to raise a little more

    tyvm

    Seat 1: BackDoorovic (1565 in chips)
    Seat 2: MammaPoker (2410 in chips)
    Seat 3: JP 5-time (1765 in chips)
    Seat 4: bigjoe2003 (1300 in chips)
    Seat 5: jaguars25 (1440 in chips)
    Seat 6: redsoxqirl24 (1530 in chips)
    Seat 7: inissint (1395 in chips)
    Seat 8: mman_status (1205 in chips)
    Seat 9: KCobra81 (890 in chips)
    mman_status: posts small blind 25
    KCobra81: posts big blind 50
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to inissint [Qc Qs]
    BackDoorovic: folds
    MammaPoker: folds
    JP 5-time: folds
    bigjoe2003: folds
    jaguars25: folds
    redsoxqirl24: raises 100 to 150
    inissint: raises 200 to 350
    mman_status: folds
    KCobra81: folds
    redsoxqirl24: calls 200
    *** FLOP *** [8s 9c 2c]
    redsoxqirl24: checks
    inissint: bets 1045 and is all-in
    redsoxqirl24: calls 1045
    *** TURN *** [8s 9c 2c] [4c]
    *** RIVER *** [8s 9c 2c 4c] [3s]
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    redsoxqirl24: shows [2s 2h] (three of a kind, Deuces)
    inissint: shows [Qc Qs] (a pair of Queens)
    redsoxqirl24 collected 2865 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
     
  2. oconnor2008 oconnor2008 is offline

    Le Roy, NY
    United States

    Posts: 693
    Joined: Jan 06

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 6:03pm) in reply to inissint

    i would have reraised to 450 (3x her raise)
  3. BettinBenny BettinBenny is offline

    Hinton, IA
    United States

    Posts: 169
    Joined: Jan 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 6:27pm) in reply to inissint

    Chance to hit an underpair on the flop is around 13%, so she needs to be getting around 9 to 1 on the amount she's investing. When considering implied odds, the amount of your raise here doesn't matter as much as the size of your stack behind. For a correct play, assuming she knows you have an overpair, she needs to be sure she can get 1800 of onaccounted-for chips with her 200 chip call (either by getting all your chips, getting you to make a big bet or gettin you to make a big call).

    Here, it looks like there is 425 in the pot, so she wants to be able to get around 1400 more from you when she hits. You don't have that many chips, so she should fold based on just this information. Maybe she was thinking she could push you off a high pair if an A hit, maybe she mis-read your hand, or maybe she just made a mistake and got rewarded.
  4. inissint inissint is offline

    Fort Lauderdale, FL
    United States

    Posts: 2,134
    Joined: Mar 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 6:34pm) in reply to BettinBenny

    ok tyvm...i thought she needed about 7 to 1 (and that is assuming everything went perfectly for her i.e. set, and gets my whole stack) which would be barely more than she was gettin given my stack

    but thanks for the math
     
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  5. molster molster is offline

    Rome
    Italy

    Posts: 102
    Joined: Jul 06

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 6:34pm) in reply to BettinBenny

    your maths are slightly wrong, 13% is 7.7-1 meaning for 200 she needs to get 1,540 from the hand, 425 in the pot leaving 1090 to get, 1045 left in his stack, meaning she's only getting 7.45-1 with implied odds, so your raise was borderline mathmatically - raise more next time :)
  6. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,633
    Joined: Oct 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 7:00pm) in reply to inissint

    There is 11.5 % chance that she will hit her set . Moreover , there is a 9 % chance that you will suckout on the turn or river . Another possibility which i've excluded is the set over set scenario which is almost negligible .

    Lets assume that when this person hits her set , both of your chips are going in the middle .

    Is it profitable for her ?

    She is getting odds of 1620:200 which means she must win at least 10.9 % of the time and the probability her hand holds up is 0.115*0.91= 0.1045

    which is less than the correct odds she needs .

    This means that she made a negative EV call but it's close to neutral .
  7. jay_shark jay_shark is offline

    NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,633
    Joined: Oct 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 7:18pm) in reply to jay_shark

    Last comment .

    You should raise the maximum amount that you think it would be incorrect for her to call .

    Example - If you had raised 250 more and she folded , then your raise of 200 is close to the correct amount . You always want to bet or raise so that it's a mistake for them to call .
  8. ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 3,943
    Joined: Oct 05

    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 7:19pm) in reply to jay_shark

    without doing any math I can tell you that her call was -EV, and that it would still be -EV even if you only made it 300.

    This is because we have to take into account the chance of her hitting and NOT stacking you, or losing the pot anyway. This is very significant, especially if you have hands in your range other than QQ-AA (like AK, AQ, 1010-JJ etc)

    in conclusion, 22 sucks a lot.

    -Jeff
    1
  9. gank gank is offline 'tis always ganktober

    Oldwick, NJ
    United States

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    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 7:30pm) in reply to ActionJeff

    Sometimes you should think about not how much you should raise to price someone out, but rather, how much can you get someone to call for in which they are getting bad odds, the more you exploit a players bad decisions for, the more profitable a situation you will put yourself into.
     1
  10. inissint inissint is offline

    Fort Lauderdale, FL
    United States

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    Oct 10th, 2006 (10/10/2006 7:45pm) in reply to gank

    ok i guess in my tilted state my thinking was very warped...forgot basics about making her make a mistake which seems close to what i did based on jeff's and some other math

    just a suckout that i guess i played close to well

    ty gank jeff and others
     
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