Edit : Moose had QQ like he wrote in the post and I called his bet on the river. I didn`t think he would show up with Qs a lot and if he played KK that way I would be impressed and pay him off. On the other side, I am not sure what I can beat except from a bluff or a poor played AK so I should have folded.

I think this hand was interesting on more than one level. Which hand does it make sence that he has?

pokerstars Game #34585132976: Tournament #208010001, $1000+$50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2009/10/27 20:06:27 ET
Table '208010001 19' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: jgmrt3 (2940 in chips)
Seat 2: slimshaggy (3000 in chips)
Seat 3: necora75 (2990 in chips)
Seat 4: Moosedebator (2400 in chips)
Seat 5: kompas02 (3505 in chips)
Seat 6: JJ Pizz (3120 in chips)
Seat 7: PAW717 (2790 in chips)
Seat 8: JohnnyBelow (3000 in chips)
Seat 9: ShankingYou (3255 in chips)
jgmrt3: posts small blind 10
slimshaggy: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to JohnnyBelow [Ac As]
necora75: raises 40 to 60
Moosedebator: calls 60
kompas02: folds
JJ Pizz: calls 60
PAW717: folds
JohnnyBelow: raises 320 to 380
ShankingYou: folds
jgmrt3: folds
slimshaggy: folds
necora75: folds
Moosedebator: calls 320
JJ Pizz: folds
*** FLOP *** [5d 6c Kc]
Moosedebator: checks
JohnnyBelow: bets 600
Moosedebator: calls 600
*** TURN *** [5d 6c Kc] [Qs]
Moosedebator: checks
JohnnyBelow: checks
*** RIVER *** [5d 6c Kc Qs] [7h]
Moosedebator: bets 1420 and is all-in
JohnnyBelow: ???

Before you decide what you think, here are a few things to think about.

If he got :

KK - Would he flat the raise UTG trying to trap and then try to trap even more when the hand is raised behind him?

QQ - Would he flatcall my bet on the flop, when my range pre is pretty much QQ+(maybe JJ) and AK. I think I would flat 22-JJ and definately flat AQ. AK got there on the flop if that is what he thinks I have.

55 - Would he call 13% of his stack with a small pair OOP?

66 - Same as above

KQ - KQs - Same as above

AK - Maybe the hand that makes most sense? Most players would fold or re-raise pre though I think, as playing it OOP can be tricky.

98cc - Call me on the flop with a gutshot, looking to take it away on the river if I check turn, then get there on river? Could be a possibility but very unlikely and very fishy if so.

AA - Could we have the same hand? If so would he not re-raise me allin on the flop or maybe he is scared that I could have KK? And would he be shoving river on a scary board early in a big tournament when he is behind most the times he is called?

(added) AQcc - Callin with a marginal hand OOP? Then flopping flushdraw, turning a pair and shoving river basicly as a bluff?

What makes most sense and based on that, what would you do in this spot?

I dont think your beating anything other than a busted flush.... I would fold as you still have some chips to play with..... I hate the structure to the stars 1k, 3k starting stack is a joke... someone should start a petition to switch it to 5k just like the other 1k buys

I forgot to include AQcc. That is def a possibility too. But if so shoving on the river would be a bluff on his part and not a valueshove.

I didn`t say that I called it :-) Just want to see what people think. And I might have called it too. Will post results later.

 

Originally Posted by JohnnyBelow

I forgot to include AQcc. That is def a possibility too. But if so shoving on the river would be a bluff on his part and not a valueshove.

I didn`t say that I called it :-) Just want to see what people think. And I might have called it too. Will post results later.

I would say this is 100% a bluff, but meh. Still saying nh sir either way so..

No idea if villain is good or not, but he's ranked, so he can't be that bad right?

So his range should be KK+, no? AK too I guess, I dunno. Anything other than that seems absurdly bad for heaps of reasons. KQ, 98cc, 66, 55? Lol, god I hope not.

with no history it is obv hard to say, but i see he has 2400 at the start which means he lost some hand before which means he might be a little irritated? you nicely bump the AA way up because we have a opener and a flatter acting before which is never a bad idea. now, does he snap call you pre? hmm, you don't say, but as this is my opinion of the hand i'm gonna say he called fairly quickly...the flop comes and he checks probably with the intention of callin your continuation (i.e.float) which he does (again, rather quickly i'm assuming?) btw, i think you should have bet more than 600 on flop but w/e it's always situational is it not? ok, the Q comes on the turn and he checks again, but you check behind this time which is where the hand totally changes for him. while i would normally put the villain on a set in these types of posts/spots, i just feel this turn check behind is where he starts licking his chops as you now are under repped. i believe villain has now decided to jam almost any river. the 7 comes and he sticks it in knowing he is beat but thinking you simply cannot call because you are worried about something. conclusion of my opinion with no history nor timing tells: villain has very little if not air and at best a busted flush draw...you are hating this spot but probably calling as you know in your subconcience that you have kinda set him up to make this play??? so, WHAT HAPPENED???

I dont understand why people wouldnt include KK in his range, in fact I think its the majority of it. UTG opens and hes UTG+1 at 10/20, plenty of people flat here all day. Once someone squeezes he reflats because I seriously doubt if he back 4 bets JB is getting it in without KK+, this is level 1 of a 1k.

Fold

yea "Rebuy B", you say^: "Thanks for paying my rent" and that is a deep 3rd post since signing up last week...but with no scores or info in your brand-new profile, i just don't know what to think of your realness behind that cool quote. see, i'm willing to be wrong here, and i have no problem hearing JB saying he was crushed and me looking like a fool...i decided to take a different route on this one, and i'm sticking to it...

lol EDIT: and btw, your other 2 posts are purely gems as well. wow

This hand really seems like KK to me. He is most likely a thinking player in a 1k, therefore his range is probably AA, KK, and AKs. I really don't think he shoves river with AA or AK.

i feel like if he has any hands other than QQ, KK, or AA that he played it incredibly incredibly bad.

if he actually has some sort of air or like JJ turned into a bluff, it's like the sickest line ever, and probably a bad line jsut because people hate folding AA and that's basically the only hand that you could have here that would fold this river. but like i already said, JJ pre and on the flop would be awful

i vote QQ+, fold

I think KK is the most believable hand here and makes the most sense by his line. He flats KK to be deceptive and now he gets RR. He continues a line of deception by flatting KK. I mean does he really expect to get calld my much less than AA pre? He gets most of his value by getting bluffs from you or trapping your QQ or AK. I can't see Moose ever not having AA KK or QQ here. QQ is possible as well, but Im not sure if he just flats 600 on flop when ur range is sooo narrow. However he may just in case you have some random air hand here, and once he flats 380 he might feel as though he HAS to call a flop bet at least. I would say AA is prlly beat here, but Im not one that likes to hero fold here. Esp with already putting in 1k chips. Cooler...if he hit the two outer.

This should be like KK 100 percent, and even if it is, it was played poorly by flatting the flop (only reason i can justify for the flat is if moosedebator thinks OP doesnt recognize him as a reg, which i highly doubt). Def folding as played.

 

Originally Posted by TigersWood

first, your analysis is 100x better than mine. now, the line i put in bold from it you are saying he might just be flatting/floating to make some sort of play at the pot on later streets, correct? in other words, possibly bluffing "because he feels like it"...

i was more referring to preflop, just because i hate giving people credit for playing perfectly when i only know them as a good player but not having reads.

that being said if he does flat pre with pair lower than KK I don't think many 'good' players are going to tool out postflop with the king high flop because your range is ridic strong pre. If the flop is Q high or lower I'm really happy to get it in because i really suspect he has QQ+ and i think he can possibly fold QQ pre some non 0% of the time so i think it's def good to b/c on even Q high flop because most people have no intentions of folding KK there.

I think by checking back the king high flop you can hope he tools out and turns lower pairs into bluffs (even though these should really barely be in his range ever but like i said before i hate to assume people are playing perfectly) because people do random shit and love pouncing on weakness. It seems really passive but i just don't see how you can possibly get get any action on the king high flop.

I'm pretty torn if i would go broke had i checked behind and there been a blank turn and river just because i really don't see how he has anything but KK if he is good. i doubt he turns QQ into a bluff because there is no way he can expect you to fold. I can't believe I'm saying this but I think we shouldn't call more than one bet after we check behind.

Once the queen hits the turn I'm pretty sure I'm just shutting down every time vs anyone competent because if they did have AK, which they shouldn't, i think they are more likely to c/c since it would be ridiculously thin value. If it checks down to the river and at that point he bets, I think I'd probably sigh and fold even though it's probably not good.

note: against a random, or someone i don't think is that good im just going to bet the flop and get it in, or sometimes check behind but still never folding and only checking behind for deception because I think they are rarely going to show up with KK.

EDIT: giving up seems really exploitable but it's only going to be bad if people are going to exploit it, and that seems really really rare in this scenario.

 

Originally Posted by JBT449

This should be like KK 100 percent, and even if it is, it was played poorly by flatting the flop (only reason i can justify for the flat is if moosedebator thinks OP doesnt recognize him as a reg, which i highly doubt). Def folding as played.

This..but not...

 

Originally Posted by Gags30

can't fathom him having AK here...his flat of your 3b pre would be beyond awful with AK

agree it is not great, but seems a lot more likely to be in his range than 55/66/77/78cc as quite a few others have put in.