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Hand from deep in FTP 750K- hand ranges and advice needed

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  1. DahJinerat DahJinerat is offline

    Mandeville, LA
    United States

    Posts: 333
    Joined: May 06

    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 12:17pm)

    ~115 players left

    I'm at 12 BBs w/ an M of 5

    FullTiltPoker: <span>$750,000 Guarantee</span> (30799714), Table 438 - <span>2500/5000 Ante 600 </span>- No Limit Hold'em - 23:36:02 ET - 2007/11/25
    Seat 1: monkeyboy569 (100,832)
    <span>Seat 2: DahJinerat (60,692)</span>
    Seat 3: WiShIwUzThErE (166,585)
    Seat 4: tymster (128,857)
    Seat 5: TheBigBossMan23 (234,208)
    Seat 6: DownTheStreetD (160,885)
    <span>Seat 7: interboro (39,468)</span>
    <span>Seat 8: Egarim (102,342)</span>
    Seat 9: thebank1212 (49,681)
    monkeyboy569 antes 600
    DahJinerat antes 600
    WiShIwUzThErE antes 600
    tymster antes 600
    TheBigBossMan23 antes 600
    DownTheStreetD antes 600
    interboro antes 600
    Egarim antes 600
    thebank1212 antes 600
    monkeyboy569 posts the small blind of 2,500
    <span>DahJinerat posts the big blind of 5,000</span>
    The button is in seat #9
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    <span>Dealt to DahJinerat [X X]</span>
    WiShIwUzThErE folds
    tymster folds
    TheBigBossMan23 folds
    DownTheStreetD folds
    <span>interboro raises to 38,868, and is all in</span>
    <span>Egarim raises to 101,742 and is all in</span>
    thebank1212 folds
    monkeyboy569 folds
    <span>DahJinerat: ?????????????????</span>

    1) <span>interboro</span> has been grinding the shortstack for a few orbits and obviously is likely to have a fairly wide range here w/ only 8 BBs and action folded to him in the hijack seat- IMO, his range is probably 22+, A2+ KT+ QT+ JT+ and some suited connectors... agree/disagree?

    2) <span>Egarim</span> most likely realizes that interboro's range is fairly wide and could be isolating his 20 BB stack with a lot of hands in the cutoff, but certainly his range is much more narrow- maybe 77+, ATs+, AJ+, KQs?

    3) How strong of a hand do I need to call in the BB, considering my shortstack and the ranges of the 2 players already all-in?

    my attempt at mathematical analysis:
    Pot odds:

    ~13k (blinds + antes) + 39k (interboro) + 56k (Egarim effective stack=my stack) = 108k in the pot and I have to call 56k more,
    so, pot odds are ~ 1.93:1, meaning i need 35% equity to make the call neutral EV

    -running some pokerstove, 2 hands that give me exactly 35% equity against the ranges I assigned above are 99 and AQ..
    <span>clearly, TT+ and AK is +EV</span>

    <span>4) Is this a spot where it is worth taking a neutral EV gamble w/ a hand like 99 or AQ or even a slightly -EV gamble with maybe 88/77 or AJs in the hopes of essentially tripling up here to a 33 BB stack in order to make a run at the Final table, or am I better off folding, waiting for a monster to hopefully double/triple up, and in the meantime grinding the shortstack, shoving all in w/ fold equity when reasonable, etc ? </span>

    NOTE- if my hand ranges in 1 and 2 are off, obv my conclusions in 3 will be incorrect as well, which is why i made this post
     
  2. DahJinerat DahJinerat is offline

    Mandeville, LA
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    Posts: 333
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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 3:00pm) in reply to DahJinerat

    ghost bump
     
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  3. zippyflounder zippyflounder is offline

    Spokane, WA
    United States

    Posts: 363
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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 3:10pm) in reply to DahJinerat

    to me, unless you have kk, aa, you should be folding. I played against wishu for about a hour and he is not the type to go into any hand light at all.
  4. Stupor_Mundi Stupor_Mundi is offline

    West Lafayette, IN
    United States

    Posts: 2,442
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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 3:11pm) in reply to DahJinerat

    What's the read on these two? Is interboro sickly tight or is he bound to make a looser play from the hijack? Is Egarim bound to isolate lighter than others? Just off a rough estimation, I'd say if interboro is not tight and Egarim is average to loose, you can open up your range to include 77+, AQ-AK, but I don't think AQ is +EV here in the long run, though it could be marginal.
  5. RankMeNOW RankMeNOW is offline

    Horsham, PA
    United States

    Posts: 1,166
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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 3:13pm) in reply to zippyflounder

    wish wasnt even in the hand ^^

    im probably calling with TT+ and AK
     
  6. darkcheck_ darkcheck_ is offline

    Costa Rica

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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 3:18pm) in reply to DahJinerat

    TT+/AK, looks like good analysis
     
  7. DahJinerat DahJinerat is offline

    Mandeville, LA
    United States

    Posts: 333
    Joined: May 06

    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 3:32pm) in reply to Stupor_Mundi

    yeah i realized this is partly player dependent/read-based and I hadnt been at this table more than a few orbits to get any significant knowledge- this was the first hand where egarim iso-shoved, but i think his PT stats were pretty standard (not super-nitty nor uber-LAG) and his pokerdb was very solid, so I assigned a range i thought is reasonable for a good MTT'er- I may be off tho..

    Beyond hand ranges I'm curious from a more strategic perspective whether a neutral EV or slightly neg EV gamble is worth it in this spot to triple up or if longterm expectation would be higher by grinding the shortstack waiting for a large +EV spot?
     
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  8. Egarim Egarim is offline

    New York City, NY
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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 7:53pm) in reply to DahJinerat

    I think at this stage of the tournament, although your stack is short, you still have plenty of fold equity. So, I think you can fold here and be okay. AQ and 99 are definitely borderline hands.I would say it definitely depends on your confidence in your own game. If you think you are really good with a big stack then I'd be more likely to gamble. A lot of players go for big stacks, but play them incorrectly once they get them. I'd be happy to play your short stack here and fold. Obviously, I may be a bit biased since I know the results. However, I'd wouldn't consider it horrible to put it in with 99 or AQ there.
     
  9. eg23 eg23 is offline

    Edmonton
    Canada

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    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 8:17pm) in reply to Egarim

    Great thread altogether, P5s needs more stuff like this... Personally I really like the ranges you put them on pre.... Considering position and stack sizes you have to believe that the Egarim is reshoving KQ, AT and up, most PPs over 6s.... so I think 99 is definitly in your range... Id say 99 up and AQ AK to be safe.....
     
  10. DahJinerat DahJinerat is offline

    Mandeville, LA
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    Posts: 333
    Joined: May 06

    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 9:33pm) in reply to DahJinerat

    Thanks for input guys, and Egarim since you mentioned the results I may as well post them..

    I had 99, decided to take the gamble and called- I thought it was close and could go either way, but was pretty card dead for over 100 hands a nd was tired of having a shortstack (I didnt realize til after running the numbers just HOW close it really was)..

    interboro flipped over QJo and egarim had KK and he scooped a big pot on his way to another Sunday Major final table- sicko
     
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  11. DahJinerat DahJinerat is offline

    Mandeville, LA
    United States

    Posts: 333
    Joined: May 06

    Nov 26th, 2007 (11/26/2007 9:33pm) in reply to eg23

    Thanks,
    I agree I wish there were more threads devoted to situational hand range analyses and EV calculations..
     
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