STORYLINE AND MY THOUGHTS AND HISTORY FOR HAND BELOW

This was hand 90 of the Merge $3 rebuy $2500. Up to this point my game and image should appear to be very solid. All players have been at the table for a while; And so far noone has seemed to be getting out of line. Blinds are 150/300 with antes, and i decide to open from the c/o. I get flat called in three spots LOL and we see a flop.Small and big blind both check,and so i checked as well. For table dynamics sake i felt that a c-bet here would be all for not; As the board obv seems to have hit someones range very hard here. I was hoping that the hand would get checked around,and i could better range players by the turn.

Once the button checks i had several thoughts!
1.)Most players with a set would bet here with board being so wet.
2.)T8s diamonds obv might be trapping in this spot as well.(T8o should protect here)
3.)Ebosia a reg on Merge would have in most cases 3-bet shoved pre if he was very strong.
4.)bhohearts- could have anything as he came along for a discouunt.
5.)Shnibbler- was my only real concern being 50bb's deep and 40bb's effective vs me!
6.)Most flush draws and combos might checkraise any c-bet with 4 players to the flop.
7.)Weak Q,J may check raise this flop once i put in an extra 1700 chips or so.

Once my hand improves on the turn i decide to take a stab if checked too. Also My plan was to 3-bet jam Ebosia and bhohearts;In hopes that my read is correct! Moreso in this case of Ebosia and Shnibbler or the two players i am more worried about; As Ebosia and SHnibbler can put a lot of pressure on me. Once both big and small blind check turn i am very confident i have the best hand. I decide to take a stab and instantly get raised by the button.

At this moment i decided that the button was making a move on me. I also felt that he feels that his JT type hands might be good here; So i decided here that i would call.I did however debate on 4 bet jamming also; But to be honest i felt that he would only fold hands that i beat and call with better.Also i had notes on this player as a wide caller pre; And what hands does he check raise now that he doesn't bet on the flop? The 7 seems very pointless to me as he could only make this bet with the flopped nuts,a set of sevens or a turned 2 pair. But since i hold a 7 in my mind J7 or 77 seem unlikely.

The river brings in the queen on spades, and i was not very happy as now my 2 pair was counterfeited. Really my only worry at this time was that the villan might have a jack in this spot; But someone might also play 88 on turn a villan did as well! I am not the best at eliminating hand ranges,but i am working on my thought process very diligently.But really the river card didn't matter at this point, as i decided on the turn to check/jam any river anyway.

Merge, $10 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: 16,741 (55.8 bb)-Shnibbler
SB: 9,068 (30.2 bb)-EBOSIA
BB: 5,050 (16.8 bb)-bhohearts
UTG+1: 5,608 (18.7 bb)
UTG+2: 7,036 (23.5 bb)
MP1: 4,714 (15.7 bb)
MP2: 13,246 (44.2 bb)
MP3: 3,014 (10 bb)
Hero (CO): 12,894 (43 bb)-GHeTTosFuLL0vAcEes

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 7
5 folds, Hero raises to 600, BTN calls 600, SB calls 450, BB calls 300

Flop: (2,625) J 9 Q (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (2,625) 7 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 1,212, BTN raises to 3,736, 2 folds, Hero calls 2,524

River: (10,097) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 6,731, Hero ???????????? (will post results later)

Then on the river once he leads for a little over half pot and over 55%-60% of his stack into a 10k pot;Too me it only confirmed my thoughts of him being weak here! I only have like 8500 behind and he bets 6700; Just didn't make sense to me at all. Now i am tanking and time is running out. What's your play here??????

Repop turn and fold river as played. You cant beat anything but total air.

 

Originally Posted by AFink93

Repop turn and fold river as played. You cant beat anything but total air.

So is it safe to say that we can call a river if we do put villan on air???? Also we beat a few hands that he turns into bluffs on this river imo? He shouldn't have any queens in his range. But im sure he would play 55,66, 88,A7,A8, this way and the Jack as well obv, if he thinks it's good by the river. In this case we are beat but maybe he folds assuming we hold AQ/KQ,AJ type hands if we jam instead of calling the river. A call only leaves us with 10bb's even though it seems like we have no fold equity. Im probly wrong but i like a jam here on the river based on my read????

fold to his raise on turn gtfo and move on ....next

Merge, $10 Buy-in (150/300 blinds, 25 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: 16,741 (55.8 bb)
SB: 9,068 (30.2 bb)
BB: 5,050 (16.8 bb)
UTG+1: 5,608 (18.7 bb)
UTG+2: 7,036 (23.5 bb)
MP1: 4,714 (15.7 bb)
MP2: 13,246 (44.2 bb)
MP3: 3,014 (10 bb)
Hero (CO): 12,894 (43 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 7
5 folds, Hero raises to 600, BTN calls 600, SB calls 450, BB calls 300

Flop: (2,625) J 9 Q (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (2,625) 7 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 1,212, BTN raises to 3,736, 2 folds, Hero calls 2,524

River: (10,097) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets 6,731, Hero raises to 8,533 and is all-in, BTN folds

Results: 23,559 pot
Final Board: J 9 Q 7 Q
BTN mucked and lost (-11,092 net)
Hero mucked 9 7 and won 23,559 (12,467 net)

I honestly think it's a fold, but hey it worked out for you. Even if the river raise has absolutely no logic behind it.

Sorry didn't read the other responses but I mean what is this guy repping?

The flop comes too wet that I don't see him cking the flop with a Q, prolly not even checking QJ (altho this is possible but unlikely), so its hard to give him credit for a big hand unless he has exactly KT. I mean he almost never has a set here as QQ and even JJ is prolly 3betting pre since ur opening from the c/o. And even hands like that are prolly firing flop due to board texture. We are obv discounting 99 and 77. Even slow played AA or KK are firing that flop.

His 3bet on the turn is odd for all the reasons we stated above and he's never doing this with like Qx hands as you are only 4balling with hands that crush Qx. Qx would more likely just call.

I could see him having a lot of Tx hands or AdXd hands and other straight up air. Many more combos of that than KT or or some oddly played set.

I think you pretty much have to call here.

wet flop, checks all around ...anyone with a piece of this that isn't the nuts is sure to bet if they are competent ...even the nuts K10 in this case should bet because of the capability of flushes getting there and 2 pair combos filling up on later streets, but as played, the only hands that make sense in his range here would be K10 or total air ...any other hand besides K10 that he could have that has you beat would make no sense given his line ...sets would most likely barrel flop and turn, QJ QK QA bets flop .. so his flop check and then his turn raise makes no sense unless its K10 like i said, the river doesn't really change much in this case i think you'll find him to have hands like busted diamonds, a naked 10 open ender that didn't get there, calling the river is fine you dont need to raise that extra small amount because you'll only get called by hands that crush you

yea i'd say re-raising the turn would be your best option. get him to stack off on his open ended draw.

 

Originally Posted by boneralert

What's the deal with Ebosia? Shows a nice profit over a decent sample but Ive just seen him make objectively bad plays over and over in the handful of times we've been at the same table.

I see him a ton but never really enough to knows how game. I have heard others say he's just lucky. Not sure though as he's always deep in something and ranks high for mtt's on merge.

 

Originally Posted by boneralert

What's the deal with Ebosia? Shows a nice profit over a decent sample but Ive just seen him make objectively bad plays over and over in the handful of times we've been at the same table.

+1

I'm wondering the same thing.

Say...what did i have there?...

Yeah I mean I'm not trying to imply that he is just obviously bad or something. The results are there and I don't think it makes any sense to assume he is just some kind of sick luckbox.

But I'm not talking about creative, unusual lines that could be justified under the right circumstances. I'm talking about things that are just objectively -EV. Maybe he was tilting or maybe it was metagame, but I seriously doubt that that kind of metagame in $15 Mergaments is ever going to pay enough dividends to justify the loss of EV.