I think you can argue that raising any hand here is just massively profitable early in 1k ftops, thoughts?

<SPAN> Full Tilt Poker Game #15913999349: FTOPS Event #12 (109222744), Table 220 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:33:08 ET - 2009/11/09
Seat 1: joclip22 (4,770)
Seat 2: monasusername (6,520)
Seat 4: Squirrely1 (11,740)
Seat 5: PeachyMer (4,758)
Seat 6: 4everunkown (8,852)
4everunkown posts the small blind of 20
joclip22 posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 4everunkown [X X]
monasusername calls 40
Squirrely1 raises to 160
PeachyMer calls 160
4everunkown has 15 seconds left to act
4everunkown calls 140
joclip22 calls 120
monasusername calls 120
*** FLOP *** [Qh 5d 8c]
4everunkown checks
joclip22 checks
monasusername checks
Squirrely1 checks
PeachyMer bets 680
4everunkown has 15 seconds left to act
4everunkown raises to 1,895</SPAN>

me likey
obv some % she shows up with a set here but pretty sure she folds all esle to ur raise

 

Originally Posted by pokerchief29

I get that. but what about the other 4 players that checked post flop to peacy? Im a micro guy but just curious bout that

they might even find hero folds of the small setse and then come onto p5s and make a thread about their epicnitty fold

 

Originally Posted by EddieO

If they are folding out so much of their range then why would you be making that play with a set....that's what possibly could go through their mind.

that would become a lot of reads/ previous history which i doubt he has with the ENTIRE group of players involved in the hand

 

Originally Posted by pokerchief29

I still dont get the point of this post. Was it a level or a brag post? maybe a bad beat post? tho i cant see if he lost this hand it being a bad beat. Am i the only one that finds this strange?

hes just talking about a postflop spot i dont see what the problem is. I personally wouldnt fold AQ to u dunno wat i do w/ KQ since its not much diff than AQ vs ur range but like i dont see u really playing a set this way and 2p isnt really gonna be in ur range either. Honestly i dunno what ur trying to rep on this board. If you're expecting her to fold out everything but sets (kk+ too?) then if u actually had a set you'd be losing a ton of value playin it this way. i see u being open ended more than anything here tbh

as far as what he's reppin, he could certainly play a set that way and not lose too much value in such a multiway pot with several randoms, no?

 

Originally Posted by doubledave22

hes just talking about a postflop spot i dont see what the problem is. I personally wouldnt fold AQ to u dunno wat i do w/ KQ since its not much diff than AQ vs ur range but like i dont see u really playing a set this way and 2p isnt really gonna be in ur range either. Honestly i dunno what ur trying to rep on this board. If you're expecting her to fold out everything but sets (kk+ too?) then if u actually had a set you'd be losing a ton of value playin it this way. i see u being open ended more than anything here tbh

I think its easier said then done that you'd get it in with AQ on the flop, I check raised with 4 people behind me on a Q58 early in 1k ftops. So everytime someone flops a high pair and high kicker vs me here they're going to be snap getting in 120BBS on the flop? in one of the softest 1ks of the year... I don't really know. I think you'd be more likely to get it in vs me because you know im a tard. However, if Peachy hasn't really seen me get out of line early in tournaments over our history, how can she even remotely think about getting it in here with worse then a set? Just doesn't really seem plausible to me. On another note, I don't think she really will make these plays with air ever in my seat, so when shes running over the hand quickly MTTING like 5+ tournaments shes going to veer more towards percieving my range in the same light as her range would be in the same spot, which will make her heavily lead towards a fold the majority of time I think.

 

Originally Posted by doubledave22

im flatting QKs and AQ pre almost always in this spot and these stacks. Im betting the flop a decent % of the time it is checked to me as well. Also i think i would flat literally all of my pairs in this spot at least some % of the time meaning KK+ would be in my range if i was peachy. Now i think KK+ plays similarly to KQ and AQ because rock is sorta repping all or nothing (with i suppose 76s being the one gray area). Pretty sure rock is never gonna have QQ here so we really just range him 76s, 55/88 and air. I dont think hes gonna c/r call KQ/AQ for value into like 5 guys here. I suppose hands like 9T, JT, J9, 79 all of those could be in there if he is semi bluffing and calling the smaller stacks. That or he has total air and is just gonna fold regardless of his price which gives us equity.

I guess my point is he isnt going to play a set this way unless hes trying to like 8th level u. He knows the board is insanely dry and theres still two more streets he can get value from his sets on esp with how big the pot will be compared to the shorter stacks namely peachy.

In the long run averaging all these possible variables out it just seems like i would never consider folding Qx and KK+. I guess u could argue getting in like 99 here too vs him since we dont think hes gonna c/r call Qx for value. Basically anything >99 plays very similar against his range.

when i said i doubt you're flatting or shipping kq, i meant on the flop...i dont see any way you're playin that big a pot that early with kq in that spot...prolly same goes for aq, even tho again i agree with your analysis of the hand in theory

 

Originally Posted by doubledave22

im flatting QKs and AQ pre almost always in this spot and these stacks. Im betting the flop a decent % of the time it is checked to me as well. Also i think i would flat literally all of my pairs in this spot at least some % of the time meaning KK+ would be in my range if i was peachy. Now i think KK+ plays similarly to KQ and AQ because rock is sorta repping all or nothing (with i suppose 76s being the one gray area). Pretty sure rock is never gonna have QQ here so we really just range him 76s, 55/88 and air. I dont think hes gonna c/r call KQ/AQ for value into like 5 guys here. I suppose hands like 9T, JT, J9, 79 all of those could be in there if he is semi bluffing and calling the smaller stacks. That or he has total air and is just gonna fold regardless of his price which gives us equity.

I guess my point is he isnt going to play a set this way unless hes trying to like 8th level u. He knows the board is insanely dry and theres still two more streets he can get value from his sets on esp with how big the pot will be compared to the shorter stacks namely peachy.

In the long run averaging all these possible variables out it just seems like i would never consider folding Qx and KK+. I guess u could argue getting in like 99 here too vs him since we dont think hes gonna c/r call Qx for value. Basically anything >99 plays very similar against his range.

yeah of course...again, i agree that anything > 99 plays almost identical vs his range...but i still think you would have difficult time gettin all of it in here with these types of hands

 

Originally Posted by doubledave22

hes just talking about a postflop spot i dont see what the problem is. I personally wouldnt fold AQ to u dunno wat i do w/ KQ since its not much diff than AQ vs ur range but like i dont see u really playing a set this way and 2p isnt really gonna be in ur range either. Honestly i dunno what ur trying to rep on this board. If you're expecting her to fold out everything but sets (kk+ too?) then if u actually had a set you'd be losing a ton of value playin it this way. i see u being open ended more than anything here tbh

In theory this is all good, but often when multi tabling and such especially in tournament poker people wont have the time/ability to go this deep in thought and just click the fold button. Although rock isnt really repping much of anything I think its a very +EV play.

Edit: basically what rock said :(

HH's like this are really annoying when people dont say their cards or show all of the action. Im not looking to solve this riddle just put the whole thing then ask for thoughts. Also maybe you could say in OP why you think this c/r is profitable with ATC, because with no explanation it's pretty easy to disagree. you might have explained in the thread but i didnt get that far

Everyone has thus far responded based largely on what Peachy will continue with now, but an equally important question is what the original betting range is to begin with. Doubt I know anything about Peachy's game, but what kind of a range gets bet here in a multi-way pot after flatting pre? Clearly if it was a random's betting range and Peachy's presumed calling range of like sets only it'd be profitable, but I think we first need to establish how often Peach bets. I don't really know so I'm not commenting as to whether or not the play is good with atc, but I'd like to know what rock/dave/etc think is a reasonable range for Peachy to be betting.

 

Originally Posted by rock3656

Nice,

I think she probably bets most of her SETS 78s,89s,t8s ,99 ,TT, JJ QJs QTs Q9s AQ KQ KK AA at the time i figured shed only get it in with her sets so.... I don't really know the frequency in which she will bet her 8s though, but imagine if you had a 5 or an 8 in your hand...

you really think she leads out that wide into 4 ppl? seems like a huge mistake to be leading out light into 4 ppl when its so easy to just get blown off your hand by a move like your making, also seems unlikely that QQ+ are in her range seeing that she overcalled in a spot likely to get other callers when stacks are so deep...

 

Originally Posted by doubledave22

shes not betting 78s,89s,t8s ,99 ,TT, JJ, and she doesnt have q9o pre.

shes prob betting KK+ and any queen shes flatting pre and sets. She might bet 76s tho. So like basically none of this folds logically lol vs u but like u guys are saying its hard at the time to pull the trigger with anything less than a set here so i guesssss if thats true its a good raise but if a reg can figure u out here its clearly going to be highly unsuccessful given her flop betting range and what i said u can logically get in (which is arguable).

i agree, but im not really sure she can have KK+ here with the overcall so deep stacked. I think she can have QJs, KQ or AQ types of hands but other than that it has to be sets or just complete air...so it seems like rock is making this move to fold out Q's she may have, but i cant imagine her folding any set

i kinda disagree that AQ or KQ hands should be shoving in over Rock tho...imo that play is just a bluff, shoving will make Rock fold all worse hands/his air but will get you snapped off by his sets, i guess if youre convinced Rock is light here, instead of shoving over him, why not just flat and let him hang himself?

 

Originally Posted by rock3656

I think checking 99 TT JJ here is extremely bad i don think she has q9o but she could have q9s. I dont see much difference in betting Q9s QTs QJ and 99-JJ ,there of fairly similar value vs peoples continuing range.

this is right, i would put those hands in the air category, cuz she cant continue with those hands and after she takes the stab at the pot shes going to have to shut down with them if she gets flatted or fold to ur reraise