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Heads Up Win Pct %

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  1. apology7 apology7 is offline Cake Poker PLB Champ

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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 7:39pm)

    I've just started my own Heads Up Quest. 300 heads up matches in 30 days. What would qualify as a good win percentage, like 65%?
    1 
  2. randomfrost randomfrost is offline

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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:06pm) in reply to apology7

    anything in the positive $$ would make a 'good' win percentage. what stakes are you playing?
  3. apology7 apology7 is offline Cake Poker PLB Champ

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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:11pm) in reply to randomfrost

    just getting my feet wet w/ heads up so i'm playing $10 + .50. If it's a success I'll jump to $33's next month
    1 
    Thread Starter
  4. Sokpuppet7 Sokpuppet7 is offline

    Fort Worth, TX
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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:14pm) in reply to apology7

    I'd shoot for 60%
  5. noneedtobluf noneedtobluf is offline

    East Lansing, MI
    United States

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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:37pm) in reply to Sokpuppet7

    I've been playing about 25 of these a day. I try to shoot for 60 percent. On good sets I'll be 70 percent.
  6. scarface_79 scarface_79 is offline

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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:43pm) in reply to apology7

    depens on what stakes at what site. if u play the higher limits, 65%+ is world-class
     1
  7. Jeff_Lebowski Jeff_Lebowski is offline

    Saint Cloud, MN
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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:44pm) in reply to noneedtobluf

    I am 15 - 2 heads up since Dec. 11th!!!!

    oh wait....I thought you were talking about MTT's :-)
  8. kookooman kookooman is offline

    Monmouth Junction, NJ
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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 8:54pm) in reply to apology7

    58-59.9% = average winning HU player

    60-61.9% = good HU player

    62-63.9% = excellent HU player

    64-65.9% = great HU player

    66-67.9% = world class (i personally don't know or heard of anyone who has a winning% higher than 66% after 2,000+ matches)

    you have to play at least 2,000 matches to get a good idea of where you are.

    once you have played 2,000 matches, you will learn that it's extremely difficult to increase your winning% by a whole percentage point.
    the difference between the winning% of 61% and 62% becomes significant at this point.

    your goal in HU is to maximize your hourly earning, not your winning%.

    your hourly earning in HU is deteremined by three factors: limit, winning%, and avg. time it takes you to fininsh the match. this simple math formula has profound ramifications in terms of game selection (limit, format, opponents, etc.)

    for example, say your winning% in regular HU is 70% but on average your match lasts 50 minutes. your winning% in turbo, on the other hand, is only at 60% but on aveage it only takes you 10 minutes to complete a match.

    in order to maximize your hourly earnings, should you play regular or turbo?
  9. µ (x+t) µ (x+t) is offline

    Westminster
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    Apr 2nd, 2006 (4/2/2006 9:16pm) in reply to kookooman

    Stevesbets is one of the best headsup players on stars, and I don't even think he can get 63%
  10. scarface_79 scarface_79 is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 6:51am) in reply to µ (x+t)

    if the rake is 5%, u have to win 55% just to break even. long grind, have to play high limits to make it wroth your while, but the higher the limit, the better the players. if u win 60% (which is not bad), u only have a 5% edge in long run
     1
  11. kopdat kopdat is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 7:20am) in reply to scarface_79

    This statement is wrong.

    Your '5% edge' actually equates to 14% ROI which would be a solid return at higher limits.

    Also, a player who wins 55% of HU matches is actually a winning player, albeit a small one.
  12. scarface_79 scarface_79 is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 10:31am) in reply to kopdat

    the 5% edge wasnt meant to be translated into ROI. However your ROI would be 15%, not 14%.
     1
  13. dbldowntrent dbldowntrent is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 10:37am) in reply to scarface_79

    If I play 100 $100 HUs, win 55%, so I go 55-45. I win $1000 less the rake. The rake on 100 games is $500. I win $500.

    The break even point is 52.5%.
  14. FSKGB FSKGB is offline

    Webster, NY
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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 10:37am) in reply to scarface_79

    EDIT dbldown beat me to it.
  15. scarface_79 scarface_79 is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 10:53am) in reply to dbldowntrent

    my bad, doing math in your head while playin 4 tables might not be 100% accurate. i need to hurry up and get my massage at noon to clear my head.
     1
  16. SgtKyle SgtKyle is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 11:10am) in reply to FSKGB

    Out of curiousity, you will be multi-tabling these HU sngs? I have tried this only twice with poor results both times. Multi-tabling sngs or mtts has come naturally to me but HU matches seem to rely so much on the style of the other player and not simple rules for solid, winning poker.
     
  17. apology7 apology7 is offline Cake Poker PLB Champ

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 11:21am) in reply to SgtKyle

    I agree. I won't be multi-tabeling them. I will be doing 10 per day and thus far it takes me slightly less than 90 minutes per set of 10 games at Pacific.
    1 
    Thread Starter
  18. drphil jr drphil jr is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 1:12pm) in reply to scarface_79

    When you say the higher the limit, the better the players, you are TOTALLY wrong. I play 200$ HU sngs on a daily basis, and I can honestly say some of the worst players come there to play. You usually find players are way too aggressive, raising 10-20X BB preflop, or extremely passive, just folding every hand. THen again there are some good players out there too, but I try to stay away from them :)
     
  19. noneedtobluf noneedtobluf is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 2:01pm) in reply to drphil jr

    Where are you playing that you can get 10 HU done in 90 minutes not multitabling. I play 2 at a time and still can't usually get them done that fast.
  20. ThorKGB ThorKGB is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 2:06pm) in reply to kookooman

    Just curious Kookooman, where do you have this numbers from?
  21. donnymost donnymost is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 2:36pm) in reply to kookooman

    I win 59.95 percent though, am I just average, or good?
  22. kookooman kookooman is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 2:51pm) in reply to drphil jr

    you are TOTALLY wrong sir.

    you will occassionally find bad players even at the higher limit, but by and large, the higher the limit, the better the players.

    if you find higher limits to be easier, it simply means that you are being extremely opponent selective.
  23. kookooman kookooman is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 2:55pm) in reply to ThorKGB

    my personal data (5,000+ matches) and the avg. winning% i got from other HU specialists.

    needless to say, these numbers are not hard facts, but i belive they are fairly accurate.
  24. kookooman kookooman is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 2:59pm) in reply to donnymost

    depends on the limit.

    if that's your winning% at $50 or below, you are just average.

    if that's your winning% at $100 and $200, you are good.

    if that's your winning% at $500 and above, you can quit your job.
  25. ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 3:07pm) in reply to kookooman

    Actually I think stevesbets is at like 55% in the $1K+ buy in sngs. That is what someone told me, anyway.

    I don't think the skill edge in HU SNGs is particularly big. I haven't seen a database (although one exists and hasn't been released yet), but I would be very interested in it. Would surprise me a lot if there are more than a few people who are beating the higher buy-in sngs over 60% of the time.

    I could be way off base here though.
    1
  26. scarface_79 scarface_79 is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 3:16pm) in reply to ActionJeff

    i totally agree
     1
  27. kookooman kookooman is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 3:26pm) in reply to ActionJeff

    skill edge is the BIGGEST in HU SNGs because you only have one opponent to deal with and because you are involved in virtually every hand.

    if you are a beginner or an average player, one of the easiest things you can do to improve your results in a full game is to play tigher and play fewer hands.

    can't do that in HU SNGs.

    you have to make critical decisions on every hand and the weaker players are bound to make more mistakes throughout the match.
  28. ThorKGB ThorKGB is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 3:48pm) in reply to kookooman

    At what % do you advocate to move up a level?
    (Assuming off course a decent sample size, which by the way a respected HU-player at that other forum says is 75. The variance is so much lower at HU compared to the full tables.)
  29. ThorKGB ThorKGB is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 4:08pm) in reply to ActionJeff

    Given that Jeffs 55 W% for stevesbets is correct, given 3% rake and assuming an average match time of 20 minutes, it would mean that stevesbets $/hr is 60?
  30. kookooman kookooman is offline

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    Apr 3rd, 2006 (4/3/2006 4:11pm) in reply to ThorKGB

    75 is a decent sample size? who came up w/ that?
    when poker was my only source of income, i played 75 in 2 days.

    variance is MUCH MUCH lower at HU, that's absoultey true.
    that's one of the reasons why i prefer HU over other games
    until i moved up to the level that i am playing at right now, i had never had a losing week in HU.
    i have yet to have a losing month in HU, but i finally had a losing week last month.

    at what % do i advocate to move up a level?
    it depends.

    my personal guideline was that i moved up a leve when i felt that i was in the top 5 at the level i was playing at.
    i used that guideline because i am not opponent selective, i play whoever wants to play me.

    but if you are asking for some general numbers, i'd say at least 60% over 500 matches at the current level you are playing at.

    in short, if you have to ask, you shouldn't move up.
    you will KNOW when it's time for you to move up.
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