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Heard this about sets, think it's B.S.

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  1. WpgJets93 WpgJets93 is offline

    Ottawa
    Canada

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    Joined: Aug 06

    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:05pm)

    So I'm reading up on sets, and odds of flopping one is about 8/1, right? Then I read a couple articles saying that, as a rule, you should actually go for 12/1 implied odds when contemplating a call. Thinking goes, "sometimes people will completely miss the flop and just fold, which won't make up for the 8 bets you need to make up in implied odds."
    But doesn't THAT forget to consider that you might felt someone with like 30 bets and make up for the times everyone misses? Wondering if the experts can weigh in.
  2. Hitman Hitman is offline

    Joliet, IL
    United States

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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:13pm) in reply to WpgJets93

    That's actually right, 8-1 isn't enough. The 12-1 is taking into account that sometimes they'll fold and sometimes you'll get all 12.

    Put another way, if you were getting exactly 8-1 in implied odds, in order to break even set mining you'd have to get their entire stack every time you hit the set, AND your set would have to hold every time. Sometimes you won't get their whole stack, and sometimes you'll flop a set and still lose, hence the larger odds requirements to make set mining profitable.

    (not considering steal situations, just pure set mininig)
  3. TheVillageGrinder TheVillageGrinder is offline

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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:14pm) in reply to WpgJets93

    Actually I think you need more like 15:1 implied odds. Harrington does the math on this in Vol 2 (i think its V2). Your implied odds do need to account for the times that you hit your set and fail to get anymore action.
  4. CubsFanSean CubsFanSean is offline

    Omaha, NE
    United States

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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:26pm) in reply to Hitman

     
    Originally Posted by Hitman View Post

    That's actually right, 8-1 isn't enough. The 12-1 is taking into account that sometimes they'll fold and sometimes you'll get all 12.

    Put another way, if you were getting exactly 8-1 in implied odds, in order to break even set mining you'd have to get their entire stack every time you hit the set, AND your set would have to hold every time. Sometimes you won't get their whole stack, and sometimes you'll flop a set and still lose, hence the larger odds requirements to make set mining profitable.

    (not considering steal situations, just pure set mininig)

    and is it this 12 to 1 implied odds that makes you refer to this as set mining--are you saying to try to limp cheap in tourneys and/or cash games--basically hitman, what's your advice on playing them in both tourneys vs. cash??
  5. jtown1010 jtown1010 is offline

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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:28pm) in reply to CubsFanSean

    The implied odds are basically your whole stack against theirs, so 12-1 is like anybody that isn't push/fold.
  6. wvu138 wvu138 is offline

    Morgantown, WV
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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:29pm) in reply to WpgJets93

    In tourneys you limp or raise early on depending on blinds. In the late stages you will raise with them normally (have to take into account the blinds again), and set mining isn't really that profitable at this stage.

    Cash 6 max you raise if you are 1st in everytime.
  7. threeven threeven is offline

    Tucson, AZ
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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:30pm) in reply to WpgJets93

     
    Originally Posted by WpgJets93 View Post

    So I'm reading up on sets, and odds of flopping one is about 8/1, right? Then I read a couple articles saying that, as a rule, you should actually go for 12/1 implied odds when contemplating a call. Thinking goes, "sometimes people will completely miss the flop and just fold, which won't make up for the 8 bets you need to make up in implied odds."
    But doesn't THAT forget to consider that you might felt someone with like 30 bets and make up for the times everyone misses? Wondering if the experts can weigh in.

    so in your example you and your opponent have well over the 12 to 1 implied odds the article suggests and you are actually just proving their point.

    All they are saying is if someone has like 3000 chips, and you have 3000 chips behind and they raise to 300, calling with 22 to set mine is probably not profitable. Because most of the time you hit a set you aren't going to get more than a cbet at most. You CANT win 30 times your bet because you are only playing 10 times as deep as the bet.
    2
  8. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:43pm) in reply to threeven

    Forget odds dude...ppl set mine with 12bb stack and always hit the flops. Just call with any pp pre lolz.
  9. Neek Neek is offline

    Boca Raton, FL
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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:52pm) in reply to WpgJets93

    If you think about it, it is very hard to make significant money set mining and therefore you shouldn't do it unless you have the implied odds to make up for that.

    To make money by flopping a set you have to:

    1. Flop a set. We know the odds there are about 7.5 to 1.

    2. The effective stack (shorter of you and your opponent) has to be large enough to allow you to make enough chips to make it worthwhile to setmine.

    3. Your opponent has to hold a strong enough hand that he's willing to commit a large portion of chips/% of his stack to the pot when you do flop a set

    4. Your hand has to hold up and end up winning the pot at showdown

    If you add all this up, to make up for the times you call preflop and all of these things don't happen and you don't win a big pot or in fact lose a big pot, you need a lot more than the simple 7.5:1 implied odds of flopping that set and it's probably closer to 15:1. This is the biggest reason why small pairs lose a lot of value late in tournaments when the effective stacks are almost never large enough to give you proper implied odds to set mine. Now people still do it, but mathematically it's a mistake.
     
  10. bef99hwk bef99hwk is offline

    Manhattan, KS
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    Jun 18th, 2008 (6/18/2008 5:57pm) in reply to Neek

    1) Be in position

    2) Do it against utg raisers and ppl likely to have big hands (88-99+ utg)

    3) Both have huge stacks

    4) Hope to god it's a draw heavy board with lots of high cards so you can get it in.

    EZ Game
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