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hello + how badly did i screw up

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  1. drew5927 drew5927 is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 48
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 18th, 2006 (7/18/2006 3:08pm)

    Hello everyone, first time posting. I'd like to talk about a hand that's been bothering me a lot lately. Stars, 100 rebuy:

    pokerstars Game #5557882706: Tournament #27707481, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2006/07/14 - 16:20:04 (ET)
    Table '27707481 7' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
    Seat 1: W Snipes (10553 in chips)
    Seat 3: Niknais (6355 in chips)
    Seat 4: Sir_winalot9 (15034 in chips)
    Seat 5: Victor V (3505 in chips)
    Seat 6: $30K (7932 in chips)
    Seat 7: drew5927 (11119 in chips)
    Seat 8: BrynKenney (18422 in chips)
    Seat 9: RAYNEE. (13900 in chips)
    W Snipes: posts the ante 25
    Niknais: posts the ante 25
    Sir_winalot9: posts the ante 25
    Victor V: posts the ante 25
    $30K: posts the ante 25
    drew5927: posts the ante 25
    BrynKenney: posts the ante 25
    RAYNEE.: posts the ante 25
    drew5927: posts small blind 200
    BrynKenney: posts big blind 400
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to drew5927 [Th 9c]
    RAYNEE.: folds
    W Snipes: folds
    Niknais: folds
    Sir_winalot9: folds
    Victor V: folds
    $30K: folds
    drew5927: calls 200
    BrynKenney: checks
    *** FLOP *** [Jc Qh 6s]
    drew5927: bets 400
    BrynKenney: calls 400
    *** TURN *** [Jc Qh 6s] [Kh]
    drew5927: bets 800
    BrynKenney: raises 800 to 1600
    drew5927: calls 800
    *** RIVER *** [Jc Qh 6s Kh] [Kd]
    drew5927: checks
    BrynKenney: bets 9000
    drew5927 said, "got anything to say for yourself?"
    RAYNEE. is sitting out
    drew5927 said, "doesn't really seem like you're bluffing"
    drew5927: folds
    BrynKenney collected 5000 from pot

    So I realize that I'm probably "supposed" to call here, especially considering how inconspicuously I played the hand, but something about his river overbet set off all sorts of warning bells in my head. The question I found myself asking was, can this guy really be bluffing me here? A few rounds before he had pushed me off another hand, and my read was that this was a very good player, playing fairly TAG. I concluded that the only thing i could beat was a total bluff, mucked it, and watched him flip 2-6, obv, it was his big blind after all (lol).

    First, this is a sick play by him, but also a mis-read by me. What I probably should have considered further is the fact that this guy has no reason to put me on a strong hand like a straight here. Indeed, my intention was to c/c a large bet on the river, but his overbet seemed somehow out of place.

    I think ultimately my error came in assessing his read of my strength--the overbet either means he reads me for weakness and is trying to push me off it, or that he has correctly read me for strength and is pushing for value (running boat, or top straight comes to mind instantly). Running as terribly as I am, I underestimated how sneakily I played this hand, which actually confused him into making a huge bluff on the end. Considering that we know he in fact read me for relative weakness by the river, had he actually had a monster (boat or top str8) he probably would have opted to make a value bet on the river rather than overbet, hoping i call with flopped top or second pair. So I guess in attempting to answer my own original question, I screwed up very badly. All thoughts are welcome, gl at the tables.
     
  2. tonkatruck tonkatruck is offline

    Chicago, IL
    United States

    Posts: 509
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jul 18th, 2006 (7/18/2006 3:25pm) in reply to drew5927

    I agree with your analysis.
  3. korrupt106 korrupt106 is offline

    Portland, OR
    United States

    Posts: 362
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jul 18th, 2006 (7/18/2006 3:33pm) in reply to drew5927

    BrynKenney isn't a tight player. He's a good player in my opinion, but he likes to take risks and will make plays like this routinely. Your intention to check/call a big bet was smart, but his bet is perfect for the situation. It's tough to call for your whole stack when you're not exactly sure.
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