4 handed in party $530 sng. Payouts are as follows:
me (button) 6K
blinds are 100-200
increase in 4 minutes.
the short stacks are playing relatively correct bubble strategy, almost never calling all in shoves while the other one is still around
the big stack is NOT playing correctly. He has folded twice from the small blind to the short stack in the big blind, when he should be shoving all in with any two cards.
He has also allowed me to raise from the button and take down the pot, when he should be moving all in (because I can't call due to ICM concerns)
those who do not have experience with at least middle level sngs, please do not respond as this has to do with bubble theory and ICM.
I am dealt KK on the button. The cutoff folds.
What play should I make? Why?
the second part:
Let us assume I raise to 5x the bb, 1000. Now, the big blind moves all in on me. Should I call?
btw, I am running absolutely awful, getting monster hands cracked a bazillion times after building a huge stack early, etc, so please post something well thought-out or I will flip out on you lol
If those payouts are correct you are risking 500 to essentially win 2500 (assuming your KK holds and you are the new chip leader....knowing you it is essentially like getting 1st place cause you would play your stack correctly). Obv it is tough to put him on AA so you are a 3:1 fav (likely against Ax...maybe pp but for arguements sake we will give him 3 outs) and you are getting 5:1 in terms of the increase in pay so I think you have to call. Even if you run into AA it is essentially even money based on the times you will suck out.
The only thing that changes is the % of times you can fold that hand and come back to win. That is the x factor that needs to be added.
Just my opinion....I'm sure you will find a better way to explain this though Jeff as you clearly know the answer already ;)
Ya that changes thing alot since instead of 5:1 it is 2.5:1....so it is close to even money on the 3 outer making the "x factor" a bigger influence on the decision. If I think there is a good chance I would win after folding then it becomes a +EV play (although I cringe folding KK 4 handed...but it might be the necessary play there)
I play some 30s, mostly 50s, and more 100s than 30s, so I dunno if you even give a crap what I have to say, but here it is; I call instantly with the KK. If he has AA then the hell with it, I'm just supposed to bubble.
As for the first part of your question, I would try to play it the same way I've been playing the rest of my hands. If I've been stealing, and with those chip counts I'm sure I have been, then I just do what I've been doing. I figure, if I'm raising 5x the BB when I have nothing, then the other people are looking to make a stand very soon. So I'd raise whatever I had been doing when I was stealing so my opp. can put me on the same type of hand that they are getting frustrated when I raise with, hoping to get an all in. I would also think it's likely when the bb goes over the top that he thinks I'll fold because 1) he hasn't been going over the top so you have to respect his hand when he does 2) the main goal of my raise was to make sure the low stack on the sb stays crippled, so the sb not getting chips is more important than winning the hand, hence making it likely that I, with the KK, would fold almost every hand in this spot because I don't want to bubble, nor do I want to gamble with AQ against the big stack with two people miserably low.
Just my opinion, comments welcome as always...
Jeff, you are a far superior player to me, but here's my thoughts on the sitaution. I would aboslutely bet out. If the big stack has shown a willingness to laydown hands then trying to take his blind is probably the right move. After he has reraised me, I would lay the hand down. It may be a +EV situation, but if the big stack is not playing correct strategy, there is a good chance that you can come back to beat him even with the chip deficit. Even if he is pushing with any two cards, you're probably about 3:1 to win the hand and you can't discount the possibility that he does have aces. Granted that's a very slim possibility but it has to be at least considered. Given the chip lead, there's no guarantee that you win, although you would manage the big stack correctly and definitely cash just like given the chip deficit there is no reason why you can't come back and still win. You could probably fold your way into 3rd place, so in reality you're risking all your chips for a gain of $1500.
allow me to try to explain why I raised to 1000.
Assuming I am not open shoving (which may have been right), I raised to 1K instead of a smaller raise because
(1) I didn't want the bb cold-calling
(2) I wanted my hand to seem strong. Why?
IF I think he is shoving something like 1010-AA no matter what I raise, that is great because any pairs under KK I am a huge favorite against. However, the Ax hands have decent equity vs me. I felt as though I would rather if he fold those hands, but maybe that is incorrect... so I made a bigger raise to scare weak aces off.
this is really an ICM question. I posted it on 2+2 also.
If I knew he had 94, should I fold KK?
I don't think so, because I have huge equity vs 94, but I haven't done the math and am not really sure in these situations...
What if I knew he had A3? Should I fold then?
I think you have to look at it like this:
What is my 6k stack worth, moneywise? What is the 5k stack worth, if I were somehow to fold? What would my 12K stack be worth if I called and doubled up? We know what my stack is worth if I call and lose ($0). Once we have estimated those quantities, we need the frequency of each occurance... in other words, a hand range for the big blind that I could calculate my equity against.
Does that sound right? What am I missing? How do I go about calculating the relative value of each stack?
There are a few interesting comments you made before I go into the hand anaylsis. First you said that the big stack was not playing correctly. You said that you should push with XX when on the SB. This IMO is incorrect. The fact that the stack is that low should come into your decision. Now say the stack on the SB had 3.5K i may agree with this. But remember that the M of the SB is only 5. He is put to a decision. If you constantly do that, he will know that you are pushing with XX. This will give him the ability to call with a marginal hand such as Ax, KQ, etc. The reason for being able to call this, is with ICM consideration. The blinds are high enough, that the SB will only have a few more rounds. Essentially either way, his fate will be left on a gamble. Yet if you continue to push everytime, he can rest assured that there is a high possibility you do not have a good hand, thus being able to call. The other option is to push with a marginal hand and have atleast 2 players with the option of calling. Now he has reduced his risk from dealing with 2 random hands to 1 random hand.
The BB may not be as thoughtless as you think. By pushing everytime, he will get called once. This will not be a huge detrement to his stack, but will add chips to the smaller stack from his stack instead of yours. If he loses one of these, his worry is not with the BB's stack, but with your stack. He is allowing you to steal the blinds, as he may not want to get into a big hand with you incase you have something and are not the player you are. YOU HAVE ASSUMED THAT EVERYONE THINKS WITH RATIONAL ANALYSIS LIKE YOU DO. This for the most part is not true, even at higher levels. There are players at higher levels, who will call off all their chips with AJ.
I think you have to fold KK here. Even though you are likely ahead, why risk the chance that you get unlucky or are behind? The other stacks have so few chips that you assured 2nd place if you a good player and do not run into something rediculous. You also have a good chance at 1st by being a better player.
I fold here 100% of the time in this situation. The goal is to make money, not win everytime.
Please do not flip out me ;-)
Here's my quick summary. Kings are too strong to laydown. The only way I could imagine laying that down would be if it were a satellite and 3 people got paid. Other than that I think laying it down gives up way too much EV. I'd consider laying down something like jacks or ak for sure though.
Brings up an interesting question about ICM and the 4 handed game. Do ICM calculations account fo the "correct" strategy. That is if the second stack is gonna get popped everytime he sticks his head up, is his real equity less than what ICM calculations say it is.
It all comes down to your odds of finishing in what place if you win the hand vs. if you fold the hand. You're about 70% against A3(o) and 85% against 49(o). Would you say a distribution if you win the hand would be something like
And if you fold the hand
If that's the case, then folding to A3 is the right move based on EV, but calling if you're up against 49 is the right move. Let me know if this distribution seems right, or needs to be changed.
against A3 calling EV = 1526, folding = 1800
against 49 calling EV = 1849, folding = 1800 (obv)
You need to be at least a 83.7% favorite in the hand based on this distribution, so folding to a small pocket pair would also be correct in that case.
the only thing I would like to respond to is your assertion that him folding the sb is correct.
The two instances where he did so, the big blind had 6-7 blinds left, and the only other short stack had about 5 bbs left. It is profitable to shove in that spot with 23o, simply because the big blind will not call near frequently enough to make your push a bad one.
I agree that if he just pushed/reraised all in every single hand, the short stacks would get agitated and think "screw it, blinds are going up, im blinding down, I have to call and gamble otherwise im probably going out 4th anyway". They would also be forced to call in a couple of orbits simply because they would be pot commited, even if the other short stack had a stack of similar size.
However, when analyzing such a situation, you have to consider it at the current moment. If it is plus EV to shove from the small blind there, you shove all in. I don't think there is much else to it, and I don't know a winning high level sng player who doesn't make that play.
without calculating I think it is a call vs 94, and against a random hand (obv the Ax case is somewhat worse than the random hand), it is a fold but only a small mistake to call.
Also I think if you did put that situation on ICM the big stack has even more equity than what ICM says because "proper" play is for the big stack to steal everything.
I really dont understand the problem here. Your raise of 5x the BB is fine. However, under no circumstances can you fold at this point. The BB can easily be playing 10 10 JJ or QQ, or even worse (AK AQ or a low pair). In my opinion, you make this raise with the HOPE that the big blind goes allin. INSTACALL!
i dont get the question here...i call instantly, 4 handed wtf are the odds he has aa, let him suck out on you, but you know folding is the wrong play...folding here is ridiculous...as many players say, go for the win, not so you make the money..
I remember the exact same situation came up in the WPT when Carlos Mortenson pushed with ace junk and with 3 left and got a call from 2nd in chips with 1010. I forgot the guys name though. Anyways I thought it was a terrible call because the guy in third couldnt even match the big blind the next hand. and we arent talking a few thousand but like a 500k swing. In your case I dont think a fold is a bad play because with 5k you can still take the thing down if you believe in your short handed game. my 2 cents.
yeah I remember that situation. That was just an AWFUL call. It made no sense at all.
"playing for the win" is great in MTTs, but in sngs we are concerned with maximizing the amount of money we can make. Bubbling is not as heroic as it is in MTTs, LOL.
The fact that the payouts go 2500-1500-1000 make the situation a lot different than at a final table 4 handed or something.
no. I would never raise with the intention of folding. if I was going to do that, I would just open shove my pocket KK, thus eliminating the problem.
This is more of an excercise in figuring out how to analyze the situation once I have raised, so that we can compare the alternatives of open shoving and raising and calling a shove and see what is best.
i would make a standard open raise to 600 and try to play a small pot postflop
according to my ICM calc:
fold ev: $1545
call and win ev: $2051
call and lose ev: obv $0
so you need to be about a 3:1 favorite vs his range for this to be a call... ie if you think he is pushing more than about the top 10% of hands here you need to call
clearly raising and enticing an allin re-reraise is more often the better of the two plays here. obviously it's different with every opponent. That said, I think you played it very well with your overbet on the button. A raise of 600 might not have had the same effect.
If you are so worried about limping into the money that you would possibly fold KK preflop 4 handed, then you are not playing within your bankroll. With your 6k chip stack, you could certainly fold/ blind steal into the money w/o ever risking your entire stack. With that strategy and your chip stack you would probably get 2nd as much as you get 3rd. So on avg. you would earn $1250. Consider the hands that your opponent could have. AA-88, AK-AJ, KQs. On avg. you're better than a 70% favorite, and with a win in that situation, you would end up taking the SNG around 3/5 times, and get 2nd the rest of the time. So your avg. win becomes (3/5x2500) + (2/5x1500)= $2100. This means you are losing ($850x%.70) every time you fold KK in this spot. So your final loss in folding KK is about $600 every time you do it. Keep it up and you won't need advice on how to play 500+30's anymore, as you will be playing the 20+2's.