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Help Understanding the Thinking / Numbers Here

1. Hi

I've started playing poker again during the last SCOOP and want to better my understanding of some of the concepts and situations for later on intournaments

Recently I’ve been able to go deep in many tournaments only to fade away asthe blinds increase. One thing I’m trying to do now is pick spots to 3 bet and pick up chips before the flop. This hand is an example

This hand started as an attempted steal (BB very tight)

I wasn't bothered about the call from seat 8 and thought that I may prompt a squeeze from Seat 9. Seat 9 had been playing with a 14% pf raise percentage and hadn't shown down too much. I'd seen him 3 bet previously also and had him down as a good player.

My re-re-raise was basically to call him out on his squeeze and for him to fold the hand. I'd not shown down many hands and had a pf raise percentage of 11% so I thought that with my initial raise and then my second raise he would fold and I would pick up the \$14k which was in the pot at the time. He thought foraround 30 seconds and then called.

I've played the hand though a few times, ran some odds on Pokerstove and have a few questions

a) Based on my reads, was this a good spot to try and add \$14k to my stack? Or do I just fold the hand and carry on picking up blinds etc?

b) He thought for a very long time before calling. Even if he knows what I’m doing... do the numbers work out so that he would justify a call? I'm really interested in this as I feel that this is where my understanding is lacking. I have it down as he needs to call \$17k to win \$31k which is 1.8 to 1. Can he make a case for the call if he puts me on a certain range? and what is this range?

c) If 44 is not a good hand to call with - what hands would be good to callin the position with?

More than anything I’m just looking for a few points for me to think about and better my understanding

Thanks

VK

pokerstars Hand #82077728824: Tournament #570452684, \$50.00+\$4.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIV (500/1000) - 2012/06/17 16:54:44 WET [2012/06/17 11:54:44 ET]
Table '570452684 159' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Giani Capat (30507 in chips)
Seat 2: Funnnuraba (22893 in chips)
Seat 3: ilovetyumen (6292 in chips)
Seat 4: ShaiC`akes (18007 in chips)
Seat 5: shea1000 (27480 in chips)
Seat 6: B4D VK (19896 in chips)
Seat 7: BomberPaul (33333 in chips)
Seat 8: sharpe2010 (21004 in chips)
Seat 9: Futti18 (34107 in chips)
Giani Capat: posts the ante 100
Funnnuraba: posts the ante 100
ilovetyumen: posts the ante 100
ShaiC`akes: posts the ante 100
shea1000: posts the ante 100
B4D VK: posts the ante 100
BomberPaul: posts the ante 100
sharpe2010: posts the ante 100
Futti18: posts the ante 100
Giani Capat: posts small blind 500
Funnnuraba: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to B4D VK [9c As]
ilovetyumen: folds
ShaiC`akes: folds
shea1000: folds
B4D VK: raises 1400 to 2400
BomberPaul: folds
sharpe2010: calls 2400
Futti18: raises 4600 to 7000
Giani Capat: folds
Funnnuraba: folds
B4D VK: raises 12796 to 19796 and is all-in
sharpe2010: folds
Futti18: calls 12796
*** FLOP *** [Ts 6s Jc]
*** TURN *** [Ts 6s Jc] [3c]
*** RIVER *** [Ts 6s Jc 3c] [3h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
B4D VK: shows [9c As] (a pair of Threes)
Futti18: shows [4d 4c] (two pair, Fours and Threes)
Futti18 collected 44392 from pot
B4D VK finished the tournament in 1022nd place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 44392 | Rake 0
Board [Ts 6s Jc 3c 3h]
Seat 6: B4D VK showed [9c As] and lost with a pair of Threes
Seat 9: Futti18 (button) showed [4d 4c] and won (44392) with two pair, Fours and Threes
Edited By: N0ttingham Jun 17th, 2012 at 05:46 PM
2. First thought: A9 is just not a strong enough hand to 4-bet here, Futti has put more than 1/5 of his stack in pre-flop, I doubt he will be folding that often to your raise which is giving him nearly 3:1 odds to call because your stack is reasonably small compared to the 3-bet. Your stack is just not large enough to really apply pressure there.

I'd just play it simpler there, fold, and keep picking up blinds.
3. your math is way off,he has to call another 12k into 31k... as long as the player here isnt an idiot then he isnt folding any hand that he 3bets here with. youre early/mid pos. with a vulnerable hand and only a 19bb stack, Id probably just open fold tbh
4. i think your math was off ... he only needed to call 12,796 after his 3b not 17k , 12.8k to call to win 31 and change is much better odds than 1.8 to 1 ... so mathematically he is getting the right price but that has to be what he based his decision on because your line is strong here and 44 is trash in this spot a majority of the time

in regards to your 4b shove, i'd say a lot of it is read dependent/image dependent but you can def find a better spot to get your chips in ... essentially you're hoping for him to have a small pair or KQ/KJ i suppose, and your stack is too small to really give him much chance to fold, i think this play would work better if you had a bigger stack like 30 or 35k
5. I think fold pre.

Also if you hold this player in regard. You have to think he is not going to 3-bet fold here very often. It's a good spot to try and squeeze light for him, but he at least has to have some kind of hand that can go to showdown after shipping 35% of the effective stacks. Also 14% pfr isnt exactly loose so I really just don't see him doing this with air. I think you cAn take aces your dominating almost completely out of his range. Throw in some suited suited Broadway's, 55+AJ+ a9s and I just don't see you Really liking a call from him. That said 44 is pretty light to commit yourself with here, so Perhaps I give too much credit.
6. Futti18: calls 12796

easy call, you should be wondering if he folded.

just win the flip next time, gl.
Edited By: EyeKnows Jun 17th, 2012 at 09:25 PM
7. Thanks for the replies

Yes I see that my math is off here. He needs to call 12.8k to win 31k.

I was never hoping for the call so I guess the mistake I made was to make this move assuming that he would fold most hands when in fact what you're saying is that he'd call with most hands.

I agree that there's much better spots to pick up chips if I know I'm getting called.

Cheers guys
8. when you only have 19bb to start the hand, you don't really have a lot of fold equity vs any sort of decent hand. in other words, if the person that 3bets here has any sort of showdown value (like 44 or KJo or AT or anything like that) he's gonna have to call your shove. he's getting a great price, and even vs a tighter range, he's still getting the right odds to make the call.

as for your play, it's highly highly situation/read dependent. vs a random player that i had no reads on i would never make this play...however given the fact that you said he was very aggressive and squeezing a lot, i don't hate it. A9 is definitely a hand that can be ahead of many hands he could be doing this with. most players make this move with any A and a lot of face card combos or suited connectors, so it seems fine to get it in if you have this read

as for his play with 44...instead of 3betting and then being put to a decision...look at the stacks at the table, everyone only has like 25bb at most...he definitely should have just shoved his 44 if he thought you could be stealing the blinds here

Gags30 is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.

9. Thanks Gags

When the hand played out initially I thought that he would fold a lot of hands given the strength I'd shown... After reading the responses in this thread through I went back and crunched some numbers and worked out that he'd only need to win around 30% of the time to make the call. Had I known this initially I wouldn't have put my tournament on the line with A9.

Thanks for the inpnsight onto his play. I guess that he should have just shoved instead of having to make a decision to make the call.

I first time I've posted a hand in a while and it definitely helped with my understanding of the numbers

Thanks

VK
10. Quick question here.. If were jamming this and since hes very likely to call an all in here anyways would the possibility of flatting preflop and jamming any flop be an option since we act first??
11. Just for discussion sake as i am no elite player by any means! I thought that i would play around with some numbers while at work. In this hand im prob never opening A9 for the most part from this position unless i was going to open shove; As i only have 12bb's ante adjusted? But in this case i would like to assume that with the pot only offering +12% to our stack. The risk greatly out weighs the reward, as we are risking 19K to win 2400; In the process of shoving into 5 players behind?

As played however in this situation: B4D VK: raises 1400 to 2400 which represents 12% of B4D's(spi) stack% investment. In the villan's point of view i would view this spot in two ways, but this would have to be read/Hud dependent ect. I would assume that if B4D was a weak player/non-thinking player; I could easily 3-bet raise or jam in this spot depending on stack sizes ect.

However if i knew B4D to be a strong tight aggro player or a nitt for that matter; I would most likely avoid this spot all together.As i would fear being 5 bet jammed or called/jammed on any flop. From what i have seen in spots like this is that most solid tournament players will not open/ fold 11%+(spi) opens enough in these spots for a 3-bet/jam to be profitable. These are just my own assessments and hold no weight whatsoever.

I do feel however that i am going into the right direction with my thought processes. my results have not been stellar to say the least; But since going into a more numbers based % view of MTT play. I have been able to move up in ranks from #63 to #49 in the Illinois forum ratings. I have been using it lately to help me gauge my play,as well as a tool for motivation so bear with me i am learning.

Originally Posted by bazingaking

First thought: A9 is just not a strong enough hand to 4-bet here, Futti has put more than 1/5 of his stack in pre-flop, I doubt he will be folding that often to your raise which is giving him nearly 3:1 odds to call because your stack is reasonably small compared to the 3-bet. Your stack is just not large enough to really apply pressure there.

I'd just play it simpler there, fold, and keep picking up blinds.

1/5=20.58% to be exact! He's never folding(in this situation) IMO!
Edited By: willmccoy Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:33 PM