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High Variance Move: Good Line/Bad Line/Unnecessary?

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  1. SorryImDrunk SorryImDrunk is offline Trade with Caution, trade on PocketFives reported as delayed - Could be a scammer

    Elkhart, IN
    United States

    Posts: 93
    Joined: Apr 11

    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 8:16pm)

    Okay, so I've been sitting at this table for about 2 rounds and have only played one hand, which was pretty standard spot...pf 3bet with 32bb from CO vs an open with 24bb from utg+1 then c-bet the fllop and TID.

    While its only been 2 rounds, it is the high roller and I feel that I have established a somewhat tight image. Don't have much history against Villian but did note that he has been pretty active in defending his blind on two previous occasions.

    Hand#3025B00F7D001028 - $15,000 GTD High Roller T11538301 -- TICKETCASH -- $200 + $15 -- 9 Max -- Table 9 -- 50/250/500 NL Hold'em -- 2012/07/17 - 00:11:29
    Dealer: Seat 7
    Seat 2: Chipsforme? (29,832 in chips)
    Seat 3: slowrollin78 (23,556 in chips)
    Seat 4: bonamassa24 (15,937 in chips)
    Seat 5: MuttCrusher (21,891 in chips)
    Seat 7: SorryImDrunk (17,919 in chips)
    Seat 8: jimmy rustle (31,829 in chips)
    Seat 9: CH0S3N0N3 (12,838 in chips)
    Seat 10: letsgojets77 (20,933 in chips)
    Chipsforme?: posts ante of 50
    slowrollin78: posts ante of 50
    bonamassa24: posts ante of 50
    MuttCrusher: posts ante of 50
    SorryImDrunk: posts ante of 50
    jimmy rustle: posts ante of 50
    CH0S3N0N3: posts ante of 50
    letsgojets77: posts ante of 50
    jimmy rustle: posts small blind 250
    CH0S3N0N3: posts big blind 500
    Dealt to SorryImDrunk [8h,Kc]
    letsgojets77: folds
    Chipsforme?: folds
    slowrollin78: folds
    bonamassa24: folds
    MuttCrusher: folds
    SorryImDrunk: raises to 1,325
    jimmy rustle: raises to 3,000
    CH0S3N0N3: folds
    SorryImDrunk: calls 1,675
    *** FLOP *** [Th,Qd,4h]
    jimmy rustle: bets 2,800
    SorryImDrunk: calls 2,800
    *** TURN *** [2s]
    jimmy rustle: checks
    SorryImDrunk: is all in 12,069.

    Preflop I put him on a pretty wide range (55+, A8o+, KJs+). His c-bet sizing makes me think he's on a draw or has a small pp, so I decide to float with the intention of shoving any blank that he checks on the turn (Given that read, I feel it might have been smarter to jam the flop here).

    So let's open the floodgates: is this a good line/bad line/or too high of variance at this stage of the tournament? (we're still like 10 spots from the money). What range do you put him on preflop/postflop?

    I'll post the results momentarily after some feedback.

    Thanks,
    Drunk
     
  2. bazingaking bazingaking is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 351
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    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 8:58pm) in reply to SorryImDrunk

    Pre-flop: When your open is raised, K8 just isn't the sort of hand that plays well post-flop, let alone with your quasi-small stack size. Small-ball play (what I'd do) = just fold pre-flop.

    Flop: If you call with a hand like K8 off-suit - unconnected, so unlikely to get straight or flush draws - you must have a plan for post-flop, and that is generally: calling to steal the pot on the flop if the villain shows weakness or (occasionally) to hit a disguised two pair and get value etc.

    His very small bet on the flop does also make me think that he doesn't have a strong made hand because he isn't attempting to bet large to price out draws, of which there are obvious flush and straight draws. Because he appears weak, you could say raise to 6k to give yourself a little room to fold if he jams or shove, if you think your read is good.

    This bluff is obviously high variance because it depends upon your read (which could be wrong) and history (which doesn't mean you understand the villain's play especially over a small sample size) with villain. Since you called pre-flop you have to follow through with your plan and raise.

    Turn: He's shown weakness twice now by only betting small on the flop and checking the turn when you called. Now I think you do have to shove, even though the bluff has been delayed, you should make it now. You called with a mediocre hand in order to take away the pot if the villain showed weakness; the villain has shown weakness so you need to follow through with your plan and attempt to take the pot away from him. {Disclaimer: All of this could have been avoided if you folded pre-flop ;) }
  3. alun alun is offline

    United Kingdom

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    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 9:06pm) in reply to bazingaking

    Interesting to hear what ppl think about this, you can either look like a genius or an idiot depending on the outcome but whatever the outcome i dont know if this line is neccesary although i dont know what info/dynamics you got with the villain so floating could be a great play and im guessing it worked for you.
  4. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

    United States

    Posts: 2,724
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    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 9:15pm) in reply to alun

    It's only unnecessary if it doesn't work. #resultsorientedpoker

    In all seriousness, if you have a read and this was your plan, it's meh. I've definitely done worse.

    Problem is when you flat the 3b your hand plays awful post flop. And eff stacks are only 26bbs. So villain has 10k behind and a 7k pot on the flop. After he cbets it will usually be 6-7k behind with 13k-15k in the pot on the turn. At this point, villain should often be committed with his entire 3b range.

    Okay...after typing this i changed my mind. This is spewy/unnecessary -- stacks just aren't deep enough. Villain should be 3betting for value a vast majority of the time, his range includes a ton of hands that dominate you and isnt going to fold turns often enough for flatting pre to be profitable.
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  5. norfair18 norfair18 is offline

    Costa Rica

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    Joined: Dec 06

    Jul 17th, 2012 (7/17/2012 9:45pm) in reply to tyson219

    I think the villain picks this bluff off too many times. If you have KJ or hearts you're shoving the flop, so he can rule those out. Probably any Q you're shoving the flop too. Any sets or QT you're raising on flop. Villain could put you on a lone T but your big turn bet is suspicious and makes him wonder if you would risk it all with 2nd pair. If the villain is TheBattler33 he thinks for 5 seconds before turning over 33.

    IMO risky to float the flop since that board connects with his 3bet hands quite a bit, and in too many situations he shoves the turn before giving you a chance to take the pot away from him and you're stuck 1/3 of your stack.
     
  6. CharlesD1ck CharlesD1ck is offline Scammer & Thief - Do NOT Trade

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    Jul 29th, 2012 (7/29/2012 4:55pm) in reply to norfair18

    I agree on just folding pre, however, if you play the hand I'd probably 4bet if I thought he was that wide. On the flop I would min click back his c bet, imo seems stronger than just shoving and it sets you up to shove the turn if he shows weakness. Just calling pre and just calling the flop would give a lot of people the green light to snap you off.
  7. double_kyan double_kyan is offline

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    Jul 30th, 2012 (7/30/2012 1:54am) in reply to CharlesD1ck

    i love checking strong hands on the turn to call these bets,perfect turn card for a strong hand to check and snare chips

    also i dont like this flop for floating as well but ill be curious to see what happened
    Edited By: double_kyan Jul 30th, 2012 at 01:55 AM
     1
  8. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

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    Jul 30th, 2012 (7/30/2012 5:34am) in reply to double_kyan

    I dont like this move tbh.. Theres a lot of draws and its a really donkish spot. Also flatting k8o vs the 3bet is really bad. 4bet or fold tbh because it flops so horribly.
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