I got pwned by fischman.. was getting 2-1ish.. HOW BAD IS THE CALL? comments/ constructive criticism please..

pokerstars Game #8529179692: Tournament #43326784, $100+$9 Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1000/2000) - 2007/02/19 - 23:19:53 (ET)
Table '43326784 21' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: skuja (9744 in chips)
Seat 2: emptyseat88 (29481 in chips)
Seat 3: gboro780 (38484 in chips)
Seat 4: Grizzly Joe (22140 in chips)
Seat 5: Jovial Gent (25948 in chips)
Seat 6: Shepstar (49191 in chips)
Seat 7: eyegetpaid (13500 in chips)
Seat 8: faithless (32383 in chips)
Seat 9: TAMIRUSH (12480 in chips)
skuja: posts the ante 100
emptyseat88: posts the ante 100
gboro780: posts the ante 100
Grizzly Joe: posts the ante 100
Jovial Gent: posts the ante 100
Shepstar: posts the ante 100
eyegetpaid: posts the ante 100
faithless: posts the ante 100
TAMIRUSH: posts the ante 100
gboro780: posts small blind 1000
Grizzly Joe: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Shepstar [Ad Qc]
Jovial Gent: folds
Shepstar: raises 4000 to 6000
eyegetpaid: folds
faithless: folds
TAMIRUSH: folds
skuja: folds
emptyseat88: raises 23381 to 29381 and is all-in
gboro780: folds
Grizzly Joe: folds
Shepstar: calls 23381
*** FLOP *** [4h Ah 7h]
*** TURN *** [4h Ah 7h] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [4h Ah 7h Qd] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Shepstar: shows [Ad Qc] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
emptyseat88: shows [Qs Qh] (a full house, Queens full of Sevens)
emptyseat88 collected 62662 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 62662 | Rake 0
Board [4h Ah 7h Qd 7c]
Seat 1: skuja folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: emptyseat88 (button) showed [Qs Qh] and won (62662) with a full house, Queens full of Sevens
Seat 3: gboro780 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Grizzly Joe (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Jovial Gent folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Shepstar showed [Ad Qc] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 7: eyegetpaid folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: faithless folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: TAMIRUSH folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Pretty bad call I doubt he shoves on an EP raiser with less than AK, I'd say the best you can hope to get it in against is JJ maybe TT.

standard one outter

mc64 u are not allowed to comment at this site........leave!!

If were gonna be constructive, Id like to throw something out there...

I dont like the original raise to 6k here, i know maybe your multitabling and just clicking one over then raise to 6k really fast, but I think its much more advantageous to raise to something close to 5k. It allows u to get away from hands like these to a push for 15bbs, and Grizzly Joe doesnt have enough chips to smooth call a raise to 5k, just a small thing i would do differently.

Its not that bad at all, I don't think zspaceman paid attention to the stack sizes behind tmay, because if he did he obviously would not have posted how awful it is.

Oh and about the call, I think against many players its not bad at all. However understanding emptyseats play, and the play of most solid tag high limit players, they won't be restealing a 2nd position raise with his stack size with many hands that don't have you crushed. My honest opinion would be TT+, AQ+ for his range. He knows you are a very solid player, he knows you raised in 2nd position, and he is nowhere near a point in the tournament where a play like this with worse than AQ is necessary, and to top it off, he is an extremely solid tag player. While there are probably times where he will flip up TT and JJ and AQ and you will think you are a genius, I just think his range is too small to warrant a call. Oh, and I also agree with #1PEN's opinion of not making it a full 6k to go.

OK my gut instinct was bad shove, but let's analyze...

The shove looks weak and the guys with 10BBs or less are looking to chip up (it's not close to any money bubble: they've just made the 10th-18th place money) so I feel their average calling range here is 77+ and AT+.

Discounting his A that's 93 possible calling hands x 3 players = 279. There are a total of 52x51/2=1326 starting hands in NLHE, but we need to reduce that number given that 5 players have mucked and likely hold no A and discount his cards. So really there are 40 cards left including all 3 remaining Aces giving 40x39/2 = 780 possible starting hands for the remaning three players.

The chance of someone having a hand they can call with is therefore 279/780 = 36%

All calling hands are beating his A2 by at least 70/30 so:

64% they all fold and win 7.8k = +4992
36% x 70% = 25.2% chance of losing an average of 36.8k = -9273
36% x 30% = 10.8% chance of sucking out and winning an average of 41.7k = +4504

Total +223 chips (i.e. very marginally +cEV)

From a $EV perspective, however, adding 7.8k chips does almost nothing for his chances of moving up the money by making the FT (it is <10% of his stack) whereas losing an average of 36.8k chips puts him down to 14BB/M=7 and in serious jeapordy of not making the FT:

Fold and retain 93k chips: 70% chance of making FT and averaging $4k more than current pay level: current chip value = +$2800

Shove, 64% they all fold, increase to 101k chips: 75% chance of making FT: $1920
Shove, 25.2% called and lose, reduce to 56k chips: 50% chance of making FT: $504
Shove, 10.8% called and win, increase to 130k chips: 80% chance of making FT: $346

Total value of shove = +$2770

Total EV -$30 by shoving

Maybe not so awful as it first appeared, but still a bad move IMHO because as well as being slightly -$EV it also damages his table image when called (Tmay being a great player could argue that he was making the shove to mix up his game and make himself less predictable for a modest price of $30)

Why do you think Fischman wouldn't be re-stealing with something worse than AQ here? Personally, I'd say that if he's seen you laying down to re-raises before, his range here is pretty big. Not quite 9-Get Out Of Jail Free big, but certainly big enough where you're not automatically dominated (although you happened to be in this instance).

EASY FOLD SHEPSTAR, number 1 pen is correct about the 5k raise, althought i find myself doing a 6k raise here but willing to fold.

i dont fold that most of the time... i.e. i need a really good reason to lay it down with those odds