This is a pretty tough question. Playing live you could shove all day and rarely get called. However, playing online, there is much more to think about. On stars, you have to take into consideration the number of bots behind you. This is important because if there are no bots then you can shove all day and rarely get called, just like playing live. But if there are bots on the table, they are initially dealt rags, but once you shove, Stars won't let you get away with it because they will change the cards of the bots to a top 5% hand and you'll be called and crushed. Full Tilt though is entirely different. Much fewer bots on FT, but if it folds around to the BB you will 100% of the time get tank/called/runner-runnered by a baby sooted connector. You're much better off limping and shoving any flop. Defenders are everywhere on FT and they never lose pre-flop all-ins. In conclusion, on Stars, make sure you know if there are any bots behind you before shoving. On FT, never shove pre-flop.

if u just want to know chance of them getting a top 5% hand its pretty easy to calculate. basicly the odds of them not getting a 5% hand is 95% and u raise that to the power of however many ppl still need to act

so if in the cutoff and u are curious about top 5% its .95^3 =85.7%, so theres a 14.3% chance someone does

if u dont know the % of hands ur worried about but know specificly which hands, u can use pokerstove to approximate the % that the range represents, if u have 99 and are worried about TT+ u plug that range into stove and see what % of hands it gives u (i say approximate bc stove doesnt take into account that u know u have 99 when it gives the odds so its slightly off) once u have the % u can do the previously mentioned calculation

 

Originally Posted by JoGentleman

Thanks a lot!!

How do you call this (?^? -> the ^ part) in english? I know the word in my own language, but just curious..

.95^3 = .95 to the 3rd power

Jay

I don't fully understand the math here, but I think it makes sense. If you think about it, what your saying is right, 25% of the time there will be a top 5% hand behind you.

However, that really isn't the question. The question is, how often am I in the clear behind (because, I really don't care if 1 person/2 people/ or even 3 people wake up with monsters here.

So, with your 25%, the times more than one person wakes up with one, it goes into the 25%. But, you really only care how often it's a clear path, which would be more than 75% of the time.

Hope this makes some sense.

Also, for the OP, I don't really think ICM plays hard into this. Most MTT structures are very top heavy, which means you shouldn't play to just move up, it makes sense to play to win the thing.

 

Originally Posted by okse54

adding % doesnt give u an accurate answer, to give a very obv example as to why, say ur in the button and u think each player will call with top 50% of their hands, if u add the 2 together u get 50% + 50% and thats 100% of the time.

we know this is wrong since there is the chance both players get a below 50% hand, the correct way is to do 50%*50% which gives that 25% of the time both players will fold, and 75% of the time at least 1 player will call

ty, I told you I was a bit slow. tyvm

 

Originally Posted by lordxixor101

Jay

I don't fully understand the math here, but I think it makes sense. If you think about it, what your saying is right, 25% of the time there will be a top 5% hand behind you.

However, that really isn't the question. The question is, how often am I in the clear behind (because, I really don't care if 1 person/2 people/ or even 3 people wake up with monsters here.

So, with your 25%, the times more than one person wakes up with one, it goes into the 25%. But, you really only care how often it's a clear path, which would be more than 75% of the time.

Hope this makes some sense.

Also, for the OP, I don't really think ICM plays hard into this. Most MTT structures are very top heavy, which means you shouldn't play to just move up, it makes sense to play to win the thing.

This will another topic, but I think you would make a big mistake here.

two extreme examples..

#Example 1: We play the NHG on stars. The final table pays:
1. 18K
2. 13.5K
3. 10K
4. 7.5K
5. 5.3K
6. 4.2K
7. 3.2K
8. 2.2K
9. 1.5K

Let's say we play make 100 times the FT and we use a very aggressive approach, playing only to win. Gamble in every cEV spot in order to build a stack and gain all the chips.

We will win 5 times, get 2nd 4 times, get 3rd 10 times, 4th 11 times and the rest of te time we bust at 8th place.

This would give us a profit of:
5 * 18000 + 4 * 13500 + 10 * 10000 + 11 * 7500 + 70 * 2200 = 480.500

Now let's take a very ICM typish approach. Where we get a lot less first place finishes but a lot more high finishes.

We get 1 time 1st, 4 times 2nd, 15 times 3rd, 30 times 4th, 30 times 5th. 20 times 6th and 10 times 7th.

1 * 18000 + 4 * 13500 + 15 * 10000 + 25 * 7500 + 25 * 5300 + 20 * 4200 + 10 * 3200 = 658.000

Playing ICM wise (658K) > Playing FTW (480,5K)

#Example 2:
We make the FT of the SM $4M GTD, there are 4 people left. The CLer has got 150BBs, we are second with 30BBs and number 3 has got 8BBs. UTG has only 1 BB left after this hand, we have AA on the button, should we risk going AI?

Let's say we raise and the SB big stack goes All-in. He even tells us he goes all-in blind.. should we call????????

The pay-outs are:
1. 1.1M
2. 750K
3. 500K
4. 280K

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Well, I think part of your problem here is that your example is rather non-sensical.

You say your playing ICM and not 'to win'. Yet:

You only cut your wins down by 1 (from 5-4)
Yet, you give yourself 11 more seconds and 20 more thirds (let alone huge more numbers of 4th and 5th place finishes.

This is all from where you have 13 people left.

I think if you had a more realistic example, it turns out different.

Say out of 100 times at the final table

Agressive:

3 wins, 6 seconds, 6 thirds, 8 fourths 12 5ths-8ths 29 9ths. Average prize ($4,773)

More passive, trying to move up (and I know this isn't what ICM says, using as an example

0 wins, 1 second 2 thirds, 10 fourths, 30 fifths, 30 sixths 17 7ths, 5 8ths 5 9ths equaling an average of $4,664

Obviously I rigged these numbers to make my point, but I think your example is just too unrealistic to be useful here.

there is a phil gordon pair chart online somewhere that calculates what % someone behind wakes up with bigger pair. not the exact info u wanted but its still helpful to get a good idea of when to shove what pairs etc. too lazy to find link, gl