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Some background... This player blademann was moved to my table one hand before and I had no prior notes or information on him. This was the one hand I saw:
pokerstars Game #12869655421: Tournament #64650313, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/10/27 - 00:27:53 (ET)
Table '64650313 83' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: blademann (37929 in chips)
Seat 2: toitlkatgr (8435 in chips)
Seat 3: frozencanuk1 (18222 in chips)
Seat 4: luckyz (15750 in chips)
Seat 5: rps5000 (38449 in chips)
Seat 6: Neek555 (29771 in chips)
Seat 7: Shafeeq (25738 in chips)
<script></script>Seat 8: ob1k (15347 in chips)
Seat 9: tigerman37 (6842 in chips)
blademann: posts the ante 50
toitlkatgr: posts the ante 50
frozencanuk1: posts the ante 50
luckyz: posts the ante 50
rps5000: posts the ante 50
Neek555: posts the ante 50
Shafeeq: posts the ante 50
ob1k: posts the ante 50
tigerman37: posts the ante 50
Shafeeq: posts small blind 300
ob1k: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Neek555 [7h Qh]
tigerman37: folds
blademann: raises 37279 to 37879 and is all-in
toitlkatgr: folds
frozencanuk1: folds
luckyz: folds
rps5000: folds
Neek555: folds
Shafeeq: calls 25388 and is all-in
ob1k: folds
*** FLOP *** [4c 9d Jd]
*** TURN *** [4c 9d Jd] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [4c 9d Jd Kd] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Shafeeq: shows [Ac Ah] (a pair of Aces)
blademann: shows [Qd Jh] (a flush, King high)
Neek555 said, "lol"
blademann collected 52426 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 52426 | Rake 0
Board [4c 9d Jd Kd 7d]
Seat 1: blademann showed [Qd Jh] and won (52426) with a flush, King high
Seat 2: toitlkatgr folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: frozencanuk1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: luckyz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: rps5000 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Neek555 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Shafeeq (small blind) showed [Ac Ah] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 8: ob1k (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: tigerman37 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Yeah I know, gross.
So here's the next hand:
PokerStars Game #12869664383: Tournament #64650313, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/10/27 - 00:28:30 (ET)
Table '64650313 83' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: blademann (64617 in chips)
Seat 2: toitlkatgr (8385 in chips)
Seat 3: frozencanuk1 (18172 in chips)
Seat 4: luckyz (15700 in chips)
Seat 5: rps5000 (38399 in chips)
Seat 6: Neek555 (29721 in chips)
Seat 8: ob1k (14697 in chips)
Seat 9: tigerman37 (6792 in chips)
blademann: posts the ante 50
toitlkatgr: posts the ante 50
frozencanuk1: posts the ante 50
luckyz: posts the ante 50
rps5000: posts the ante 50
Neek555: posts the ante 50
<script></script>ob1k: posts the ante 50
tigerman37: posts the ante 50
tigerman37: posts small blind 300
blademann: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Neek555 [Ks Ad]
Neek555 said, "gg Shafeeq"
toitlkatgr said, "genius play blade"
toitlkatgr: folds
Shafeeq [observer] said, "u 2 neeekaleeek"
frozencanuk1: folds
luckyz: folds
rps5000: folds
Neek555 said, "o boy" (I knew the shove was coming and I was calling)
toitlkatgr said, "that's just real bad playing"
Neek555: raises 1200 to 1800
ob1k: folds
tigerman37: folds
blademann: raises 62767 to 64567 and is all-in
Neek555: ?????
So lets say you have nearly 100% certainty that it's literally a random hand, any two cards, and most likely a 65/35 in your favor.
My question is NOT should I have raised here knowing that blademann was shoving any two cards quite literally, nor is it should I call, because the answer is obviously yes. at 35xBB this is a great opportunity to chip up and be in position to punish the upcoming bubble with a huge stack
My question is...there is a stack size where it's a blad play. If I had 5 million chips behind and he had me covered at these blind levels, this is an easy fold. the risk is just too great. In a very deepstacked NL cash game where you are underrolled this is also probably a fold.
So what do you think is the answer for the "borderline" stack size (in an MTT) here where smaller is a call and bigger is a fold? -
You playing to win? If yes stick your damn chips in...
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It's not as simple as that. I'm playing to win money, not chips. There is a chip stack/tournament where putting the entire stack at risk as a 2-1 favorite while being +cEV, may very well be -$EV. I'm trying to get opinions on where that stack/buyin lies.
It probably has a lot to do you with your roll and risk of ruin as well. -
hi neek,
have u reD SKLANSKY tourney hold em for advanced players??
i'm paraphrasing here but.... are you a BETTER player than most others in this tourney. if the answer is yes then avoid races your better play will give you better situations. If the answer is you are about, or below, average skill of the other players, then get in as many (even slight)+ev situations as you can.
BTW not sure you are 2/1 fav here. if hes pushing atc then unlikely he has an A or K in which case youre prob only 60/40 which makes what i put above even more relevant.
That my take on it for what its worth!
dicko -
To sacrifice this big an edge you would need a massively deep stack in a slow structured tournament and be significantly favoured over the field. Certainly much much deeper than this......
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just stick it in there and dont worry about the consequences
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thats what she said?
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lol
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I guess that cuts to the core of my question.
Is there no stack reasonably deep enough in a MTT where a hand like this becomes a fold?
To all those saying "easy call". I agree. I think any reasonable player will agree that in this case at this time with this stack it's an easy call. It just got got me thinking there may be a situation where this becomes a fold? -
1) You have 50 BBs, not 35 (30k at 300/600)
2) You don't need a huge stack to profitably exploit the bubble
3) I am not sure if one hand is enough to be sure that this maniac is shoving ATC, but it certainly widens his rnge significantly
4) If you are confident in your read that he is shoving ATC, do you think you are good enough to pass up a 65/35 edge in this spot? I know I sure as hell am not.. -
1) Yeah IIRC blinds were just about to go up to 400/800 so I used that in my figures
2) It does help
3) Just for argument's sake lets say you know it's any two
4) I agree that almost nobody can pass up this kind of edge when heads up lets say. But if you are deepstacked in the early/middle stages of a MTT, you can have enough chips that you can win the tourney or go very deep without taking a 30-40% chance of busting out. If you have 100BB here do you <span>have</span> to take such a chance? 200BB? I don't think you do. If I had 100BB, in the middle stages like this, would the 60-70% chance of doubling to 200BB through this guy increase my $EV for the tournament enough to balance the 30-40% chance of making my $EV zero? -
Oh sick call, BTW:
pokerstars Game #12869664383: Tournament #64650313, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2007/10/27 - 00:28:30 (ET)
Table '64650313 83' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: blademann (64617 in chips)
Seat 2: toitlkatgr (8385 in chips)
Seat 3: frozencanuk1 (18172 in chips)
Seat 4: luckyz (15700 in chips)
Seat 5: rps5000 (38399 in chips)
Seat 6: Neek555 (29721 in chips)
Seat 8: ob1k (14697 in chips)
Seat 9: tigerman37 (6792 in chips)
blademann: posts the ante 50
toitlkatgr: posts the ante 50
frozencanuk1: posts the ante 50
luckyz: posts the ante 50
rps5000: posts the ante 50
Neek555: posts the ante 50
ob1k: posts the ante 50
tigerman37: posts the ante 50
tigerman37: posts small blind 300
blademann: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Neek555 [Ks Ad]
Neek555 said, "gg Shafeeq"
toitlkatgr said, "genius play blade"
toitlkatgr: folds
Shafeeq [observer] said, "u 2 neeekaleeek"
frozencanuk1: folds
luckyz: folds
rps5000: folds
Neek555 said, "o boy"
toitlkatgr said, "that's just real bad playing"
Neek555: raises 1200 to 1800
ob1k: folds
tigerman37: folds
blademann: raises 62767 to 64567 and is all-in
Neek555: calls 27871 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [5c Td Jd]
*** TURN *** [5c Td Jd] [7c]
*** RIVER *** [5c Td Jd 7c] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
blademann: shows [Tc 3h] (a pair of Tens)
Neek555: shows [Ks Ad] (high card Ace)
Neek555 said, "lol"
blademann collected 60042 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 60042 | Rake 0
Board [5c Td Jd 7c 2d]
Seat 1: blademann (big blind) showed [Tc 3h] and won (60042) with a pair of Tens
Seat 2: toitlkatgr folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: frozencanuk1 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: luckyz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: rps5000 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Neek555 showed [Ks Ad] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 8: ob1k (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: tigerman37 (small blind) folded before Flop -
If I had 100BB, in the middle stages like this, would the 60-70% chance of doubling to 200BB through this guy increase my $EV for the tournament enough to balance the 30-40% chance of making my $EV zero?
Yes and its not close. -
I cannot see any point where it would be correct to fold this hand against this player.
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