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how +ev is the sunday million?

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  1. fpdog fpdog is offline

    Newton Center, MA
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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 6:30pm)

    so always heard this is such a positive ev tourny for the above average player. So in reality how +ev is it if one is truly an above average player given the number of micro satty players in the tourny? Is it worth it it to play it reguarly even if outside your average buyin range if you can particuarly satellite in for equal to or less than your avg buyin range? Thoughts? I used to satty in a lot and take the t$ only playng a few times only going sorta deep once. Most of the time running into coolers getting knocked out midway 3 times with kk vs aa - it happens. What other tournys have high + ev other the million also have high?
  2. pokerscrub1 pokerscrub1 is offline

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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 7:22pm) in reply to fpdog

    I've never had much success in it, but its generally a soft field because of the massive amount of sattelites
     
  3. yarbles yarbles is offline

    Montreal
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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 8:09pm) in reply to pokerscrub1

    there is a ton more dead money in it but the expected value is gonna take a ton more of a sample size to see your true roi and the short to midterm is gonna be greatly skewed from variance as the structure late is average stack 20 to 30 bbs which makes for a great luckfest in the end and forces gamble to have a chance at the big top 3 spots
    439 
  4. hookey91 hookey91 is offline

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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 8:13pm) in reply to yarbles

    prolly shouldnt play it unless you have a huge roll because it can take such a long time to show a profit with the crapshoot fielid and structure
  5. Scarypooper Scarypooper is offline

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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 8:24pm) in reply to hookey91

    The field is so huge you'll never come close to a full variance cycle in a lifetime in this particular tournament. But because it's so huge, it's still crazy +EV to play due to the massive numbers of bad people. I would say the massive field outweighs how +EV it is for someone who is taking a shot at it, and is therefore not the best option to take a shot at.
    166 2
  6. Gags30 Gags30 is offline

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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 8:29pm) in reply to Scarypooper

     
    Originally Posted by Scarypooper View Post

    The field is so huge you'll never come close to a full variance cycle in a lifetime in this particular tournament. But because it's so huge, it's still crazy +EV to play due to the massive numbers of bad people. I would say the massive field outweighs how +EV it is for someone who is taking a shot at it, and is therefore not the best option to take a shot at.


    what is a 'full variance cycle'...just play the sunday mil a lot, and you'll make money

    edit: unless you suck
    Edited By: Gags30 Dec 4th, 2010 at 08:29 PM
    170 2 

    Gags30 is an instructor at PocketFives Training . To get more of his advice and to watch his training videos, click here.

  7. gjallen1975 gjallen1975 is offline

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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 8:56pm) in reply to Gags30

    i don't buy it for a minute. any tournament with 8,500 runners and all of sorrel mizzi's accounts/horses is not easy, no matter what you've been told. money is still weighted towards the top, and the field is a minefiled full of names, so what if there is some dead/satellite money, most will never see any of it. good structure though...
    Edited By: gjallen1975 Dec 4th, 2010 at 08:57 PM
  8. iatetheredcrayon iatetheredcrayon is offline

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    Dec 4th, 2010 (12/4/2010 8:59pm) in reply to gjallen1975

    Due to the huge field size and the fact it only runs once a week your long term expectations are going to be low. If there was this much dead money in a smaller field tourney that ran more frequently, your long term expectations would be a lot higher.
  9. fpdog fpdog is offline

    Newton Center, MA
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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 5:17pm) in reply to iatetheredcrayon

    great opinions - keep them cming
    Thread Starter
  10. supra1988t supra1988t is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 5:29pm) in reply to gjallen1975

     
    Originally Posted by gjallen1975 View Post

    i don't buy it for a minute. any tournament with 8,500 runners and all of sorrel mizzi's accounts/horses is not easy, no matter what you've been told. money is still weighted towards the top, and the field is a minefiled full of names, so what if there is some dead/satellite money, most will never see any of it. good structure though...


    None of this. Especially the structure part.
    649 
  11. HanoverHero HanoverHero is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 6:00pm) in reply to supra1988t

    Not a BR expert here but isn't any tournament that your properly rolled for with a big prizepool and a lot of terrible players going ot end up being pretty +EV???
  12. m_hawk_1 m_hawk_1 is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 6:08pm) in reply to HanoverHero

    Some of this thread is pretty loltastic. Gags is pretty spot on.
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  13. apology7 apology7 is offline Cake Poker PLB Champ

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 6:23pm) in reply to m_hawk_1

     
    Originally Posted by m_hawk_1 View Post

    Some of this thread is pretty loltastic. Gags is pretty spot on.

    I usually agree w/ Gags but not so much here.

    I think it's very statistically probable that a good player could play the SM every week for 3 years and lose. That's only 156 donkaments, it's an 8,000 person field. Yeah it's soft but a good player would literally need to play it for 25 years to insure he was profitable.
    1 
  14. gjallen1975 gjallen1975 is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 7:11pm) in reply to apology7

    8,000 / 9 = 1 final table every 888 tourneys, or once every 16 years or so.

    guess if your twice as good as the filed (most of you are), then you could FT every 8 years or so. but you have to think long term. who doesn't plan on playing that long? Gonna feel sweet when it happens!!!
  15. gotzballz gotzballz is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 8:42pm) in reply to gjallen1975

     
    Originally Posted by gjallen1975 View Post

    8,000 / 9 = 1 final table every 888 tourneys, or once every 16 years or so.

    guess if your twice as good as the filed (most of you are), then you could FT every 8 years or so. but you have to think long term. who doesn't plan on playing that long? Gonna feel sweet when it happens!!!

    you show a fair amount of incompetance.
     
  16. gjallen1975 gjallen1975 is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 8:48pm) in reply to gotzballz

     
    Originally Posted by gotzballz View Post

    you show a fair amount of incompetance.

    dude i don't fucking know you.
  17. FenwayKing FenwayKing is offline The Well: FenwayKing

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 8:54pm) in reply to gjallen1975

     
    Originally Posted by gjallen1975 View Post

    8,000 / 9 = 1 final table every 888 tourneys, or once every 16 years or so.

    guess if your twice as good as the filed (most of you are), then you could FT every 8 years or so. but you have to think long term. who doesn't plan on playing that long? Gonna feel sweet when it happens!!!

    lol i hope you never lose your password
    247 1
  18. pr33bo pr33bo is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 11:52pm) in reply to gjallen1975

     
    Originally Posted by gjallen1975 View Post

    8,000 / 9 = 1 final table every 888 tourneys, or once every 16 years or so.

    guess if your twice as good as the filed (most of you are), then you could FT every 8 years or so. but you have to think long term. who doesn't plan on playing that long? Gonna feel sweet when it happens!!!

    With that "logic" you would have spent around 90k during 8 years to make one final table. And still, the first place isn't guaranteed. Good luck mate.
  19. gjallen1975 gjallen1975 is offline

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    Dec 5th, 2010 (12/5/2010 11:59pm) in reply to pr33bo

    yeah but you are forgetting about the time value of the dollar. you see, if you invested that money in the stock market instead of playing the sunday million, then with inflation, minus the PLB index, you break about even before your other cashes to go along with the FT. it's ez math, and just be positive. that tourney rocks man.
  20. mcandrews3rd mcandrews3rd is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2010 (12/6/2010 12:16am) in reply to gjallen1975

    it is jst like the $3r in my opinion - obv very +ev with lots of weak players but for those of us who arn't fortunate enough to win our flips deep and ft you wont see how truly +ev it is
    183 1
  21. gymrat56 gymrat56 is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2010 (12/6/2010 4:18am) in reply to mcandrews3rd

    The variance is why you need to play a ton of tourneys other than the Sunday Mill but playing any tourney that you're rolled for w/ a ton of donks and a shot at big money that is going to be a +EV move.
  22. gjallen1975 gjallen1975 is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2010 (12/6/2010 4:23am) in reply to apology7

     
    Originally Posted by apology7 View Post

    I usually agree w/ Gags but not so much here.

    I think it's very statistically probable that a good player could play the SM every week for 3 years and lose. That's only 156 donkaments, it's an 8,000 person field. Yeah it's soft but a good player would literally need to play it for 25 years to insure he was profitable.

    i guess dude is letting his game say "i told you so." homie is 3rd. go gags, whoever u are. just know ur a reg here, so ship that bitch!!!
  23. neuby neuby is offline

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    Dec 6th, 2010 (12/6/2010 5:16am) in reply to Gags30

     
    Originally Posted by Gags30 View Post

    what is a 'full variance cycle'...just play the sunday mil a lot, and you'll make money

    edit: unless you suck

    Would be such a boss if he ships the milly tonight. glgl
    555 
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