First off, want to thank everyone at P5's Live for covering Main Event. I appreciate the sweat during the day - it was nice to see a familiar face and to get some attention. Sometimes things can get frustrating when cameras and media are swirling through the room and taking notes on insignificant hands just because a well-known pro is involved.

Second, I thought I'd share my bust out hand. I played poker for 2 1/2 days only to go out around 680, so obviously, I'm very dejected at the moment. Not to sound Matusowian or Hellmuthian, but I played some great poker for a few days and am feeling somewhat beat after bubbling the ME. But, I was obviously playing FTW and not just a cash (or at least thats what I keep telling myself). I keep replaying the hand in my head, which I know is normal for any bustout in a big tournament. Hopefully this post will be somewhat cathartic.

Level 13 ME...more than 1 hr after dinner break, I'm at 105k. Lost two smallish pots from my 127k starting stack. 3betting/stealing to stay at the current mark and have a tight aggro image at table...

AK spades UTG, raise to 8300 at 1500/3000 with 400 ante. Cutoff, bad internet father in pokerstars clothing, calls. Matusow, on button, calls. As he does, he looks over at me and laughs out loud as I have the common "I raised UTG and am getting called in at least 2 spots look on my face." BB, good live player, also calls. Flop is 9s7s2x. BB checks. I took a really long time here. I knew at least 1 of the players was set mining, if not all of them. Guess I just have to pray no one has a set because I'm a favorite against any other hand at this point (besides 97).

I lead out for 25k hoping no one hit. I didn't want to give a free card if both checked behind because with 3 other players in, the likelihood of them hitting the turn hard was feasible. Pretty standard. I could also cr if someone bets but meh...

Bad player f, Matusow immediately repops to 100k and BB folds. To give you a background, Mikey was playing extremely snug, only raising with the goods. It was fairly obvious he had a set. I was 85% sure it was a set, with 8s10s as the only other option. Still It was like 70k to call to win a pot of around 240k. I hemmed and hawed for a while. Knew I was beat but somewhat priced in. Had I checked and Mikey bet, I would have had to raise him there, pretty standard. I end up complaining for a while, asking Mikey which of the three hands he had 2's, 7's or 9's. He was silent for once (lol). I make the decision that to fold there getting those odds is terrible, leaving myself with 20 BB on the bubble (recipe for disaster).

So, I shove, cameras are called. He flips over 77 and I brick turn and river. Matusow cheers for a second, comes over to me to give me a weird handshake hug thing and thats all she wrote. I ask the boom mic guy to move out of my way while I'm packing up and exit the room in what was probably 680th place. MEHHHHHHHHHH. Standard cooler?

SQ

Good post. Sucks to go out so close to the money, but give yourself some credit for playing the tourney to give yourself a chance to go deep and make some real money.

I think the hands pretty standard and plays itself out as such.

You played it fine, you could argue check-raise all-in vs. bet-call all-in, but it obviously makes no difference here.

Unlucky, but hold your head high, you played it fine. Good luck next year.

i dont' get it, you thought that one or all was set mining, you hit nothing on the flop...you bet, get re-raised and still called? not sure if that makes any sense to me right now and with 20BB you still have a chance to double up...wouldn't you want to check the flop if your read was that someone had a set and fold to a bet?

Edit....

thanks guys didn't read the board right, i thought it said all x and no spades....a big difference.

Check folding there is awful. They don't know that I know that they are set mining. Or better yet, they aren't sure that I know that, so they might still fire if I check with JJ, 1010, 99 or flush draw/gutter. In a perfect world, or, if we have complete information, then maybe that's best, but not with all the other variables.

I can see an argument for CR but same thing would have happened. At least that was my conclusion...

Stnd cooler. C/R is my play but either way same deal.

 

Originally Posted by marc1313

if you play to win, you are always getting felted here. gg and good luck.

Wrong. Playing to win doesn't mean "IM GOING TO JAM MY MONEY IN WHENEVER I HIT ANY PART OF THE FLOP!!!!" it means playing solidly and using your information to make decisions, not the payout structure. This hand is just spew. You aren't getting a good price if the only hand you put him on is a set.

When you bet 25K the pot had about 38K in it, no? Now you bet 25K and Mikey puts you all in. That means that you must call 75K to win 88Kish, right? So you are getting just a little bit better than even money.

You state yourself that you are thinking Mikey has a set. The only way that price works is if you are sure that the A, K and all spades are good there. Against two pair or better you are not even a 2 to 1 dog. You are worse because of kill cards. Against a pair that contains either an A or a K you are a little worse than even money. But I don't think Mike would play those hands anyway. You are hoping here that he has an overpair only, basically. Now, I am not sure he would play TT or JJ the way you describe. AA and KK are unlikely because he would have reraised before the flop. So it sounds like your call is the right call against only 1 hand, QQ.

So against his range which seems to be sets or QQ that is not a good call. I am not sure why 20 BB's would be bad. That sounds like more than enough to play poker with. Once you choose the bet out, against that action, it seems like a fold is the best mathematical option there. If you were heads up against Matusow going to the flop then the story would be different...that would be a definite call it feels like.

The way you go broke it to take the check raise option. I actually think this is the better play here because against multiple opponents playing this hand more like a flush draw makes sense. It becomes much more ulikely that the A or K feature of your hand is good with multiple preflop callers. If you check you might 1) get a free card...not so bad in this spot 2) You might see sick action behind you that allows you to easily get off the hand 3) You might be able to check raise and isolate on one player who bets just a pair or you might be able to check raise and get a hand like TT to fold which would be fine by you and 4) You might check and have a bet and multiple callers and just call and take a juicy price with the flush draw.

Just my thoughts...

Annie

"When you bet 25K the pot had about 38K in it, no? Now you bet 25K and Mikey puts you all in. That means that you must call 75K to win 88Kish, right? So you are getting just a little bit better than even money."

Please tell me youre joking Annie. Its roughly 75k to win like 160k after mikey repops him.

What about if u check and called the the bet

still 30+BB

Idk anyone with a set is going to call a huge bet on turn, Idk i guess i play to passively when it counts.

I really think this is one of those Gigabet situations where you get your money in with slightly unfavorable odds to give yourself a legit shot at winning. Despite what Annie Duke says, leaving yourself with 20bbs when there are significant antes and aggressive/good players at your table does not leave you enough chips to really play with. I think it's better to get your money in here as a 3:1 dog than to shove doodie on the button and get called being dominated.

just my .02

betting with the intention of folding is terrible

or with 35k in the pot, why not bet out a little less say like 15k? IF he calls, i'd be worried cause i would have no idea where i stand (unless the 3rd spade comes), if he repops you, well you could fold and not draw to the flush, leaving you still enough chips to pick a better spot. this is def sick...you floppin a nut flush draw and Mikey flopping a set.

the problem is that you are OOP here, so you have to make that move first.

 

Originally Posted by Neek

Even if he just has the flush draw outs, that's 9 outs twice, or roughly 2:1.

No, that is very wrong.

I actually think the optimal line here is check reraise pre, especially if pokerstars dad is flatting/floating a lot of hands. Mikey might reraise with his button and then op can jam preflop and win a nice pot without showdown. If mikey flats, op bets 15k on flop and prob folds after mikey makes big reraise