200/400 blinds in bodog 20R ..ill reconstruct to spare you the hand history
Villain in SB, hero in cutoff
folded to hero, with 4s8s, raises to 899 (obv trying to steal, SB is the only one who has been showing resistance and he isnt a particularly strong player)
Folds to SB, calls.
Hero Bets 1,000
Hero bets 2,500ish and is all in.
Thought process throughout the hand:
Preflop: I'm obviously short and the cards arent really important, i need chips. I have a suited someone connected hand, raise, dont want any calls but get one, have position, no big deal.
Flop: Not a terrible flop, doesnt seem to have hit him, although his preflop calling range is pretty wide from what ive seen. Try to take it down, he calls, oh well.
Turn: Pretty decent turn card for me here, gives me a double gutter for 8 outs, to go alogn with the strong possibility that an 8 is also good for me, and the slight possibility that a 4 is. To average that out, assuming that the 8 outs are always good, lets say the 8 is good half the time for 1.5 outs and the 4 is good 1/4 of the time for .75 outs or so. Bad math im sure but its just a guess. this would give me an average of 12.25 outs once, putting me at about 4:1 assuming im behind.
In this case, would the shove be a bad play here? How often would i need him to lay this down to make shoving here profitable, assuming im going to win the pot 1/4th of the time?
well to start, your raise was basicsally a minraise. shoulda at least made it 2.5x or closer to 3x. your flop bet was 1000 into 2200 pot.. really small.
and your numbers dont add up.
4200 - 899 - 1000 - 2500ish. - 200ish.
The big mistake you made was the raise to 899, usually shows weakness and if the villian was a good player he would prolly realized that. The flat call on the flop would have scared me a bit, but pushing the turn isn't terrible bc you now have picked up a st8 draw and the villian may not have a hand to call you, but it does look to me like he may have 10 9 10 8 9 8 what did he have????? You can definitely fold the turn though, by doing that you can set the villian up with a similar preflop raise in position with a big hand.
Shove preflop or get off the hand wtf.
he ended up having 55 and calling my shove on the turn.
I agree, either shovel or fold here.....