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How i fkd this one up?

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  1. MikeyRy MikeyRy is offline still fat

    Massapequa, NY
    United States

    Posts: 5,811
    Joined: May 05

    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 3:17am)

    200/400 blinds in bodog 20R ..ill reconstruct to spare you the hand history

    hero 4,200

    villain 10,000

    Villain in SB, hero in cutoff

    folded to hero, with 4s8s, raises to 899 (obv trying to steal, SB is the only one who has been showing resistance and he isnt a particularly strong player)

    Folds to SB, calls.

    Flop: 9s-6d-3c

    Villain checks
    Hero Bets 1,000
    Villain calls

    Turn: 7h

    Hero bets 2,500ish and is all in.

    Villain calls

    Thought process throughout the hand:

    Preflop: I'm obviously short and the cards arent really important, i need chips. I have a suited someone connected hand, raise, dont want any calls but get one, have position, no big deal.

    Flop: Not a terrible flop, doesnt seem to have hit him, although his preflop calling range is pretty wide from what ive seen. Try to take it down, he calls, oh well.

    Turn: Pretty decent turn card for me here, gives me a double gutter for 8 outs, to go alogn with the strong possibility that an 8 is also good for me, and the slight possibility that a 4 is. To average that out, assuming that the 8 outs are always good, lets say the 8 is good half the time for 1.5 outs and the 4 is good 1/4 of the time for .75 outs or so. Bad math im sure but its just a guess. this would give me an average of 12.25 outs once, putting me at about 4:1 assuming im behind.

    In this case, would the shove be a bad play here? How often would i need him to lay this down to make shoving here profitable, assuming im going to win the pot 1/4th of the time?
  2. cchan cchan is offline

    Brooklyn, NY
    United States

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 10:43am) in reply to MikeyRy

    well to start, your raise was basicsally a minraise. shoulda at least made it 2.5x or closer to 3x. your flop bet was 1000 into 2200 pot.. really small.

    and your numbers dont add up.

    4200 - 899 - 1000 - 2500ish. - 200ish.
  3. Blackout4 Blackout4 is offline

    Chicago, IL
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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 11:08am) in reply to MikeyRy

    The big mistake you made was the raise to 899, usually shows weakness and if the villian was a good player he would prolly realized that. The flat call on the flop would have scared me a bit, but pushing the turn isn't terrible bc you now have picked up a st8 draw and the villian may not have a hand to call you, but it does look to me like he may have 10 9 10 8 9 8 what did he have????? You can definitely fold the turn though, by doing that you can set the villian up with a similar preflop raise in position with a big hand.
     
  4. BusHansen BusHansen is offline

    Toronto
    Canada

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 11:31am) in reply to Blackout4

    Shove preflop or get off the hand wtf.
  5. MikeyRy MikeyRy is offline still fat

    Massapequa, NY
    United States

    Posts: 5,811
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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 12:00pm) in reply to BusHansen

    he ended up having 55 and calling my shove on the turn.
    Thread Starter
  6. uglytuna uglytuna is offline

    NY
    United States

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    May 31st, 2007 (5/31/2007 2:32pm) in reply to BusHansen

    I agree, either shovel or fold here.....
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