The following hand was at the end, we were both still very deep, of a 9 man PLO8 SNG on pokerstars. My impression of the villian is tight/solid. He has generally been showing down the nuts during play. What do you think of my turn shove here? I put the villian on the nut low draw and did not have a good read on his other cards but was fairly certain he did not have a King. My thinking was that I had enough fold equity to make this play and get him off his hand. Was that an accurate assessment? Also it seems like neither flatting or folding here is a good option. Thanks in advance for your feedback.Edited By: kbmclain Jun 13th, 2012 at 09:29 PM
PokerStars - Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament - $75/150 Blinds - 2 Players
Hand Converter from Pokerhand.org
tightwkfish (BTN): $7,740
razor447 (BB): $5,760
Pre-flop: Dealt to tightwkfish 3c 4h Jd 9d
tightwkfish raises to $300, razor447 raises to $450, tightwkfish calls $150
Flop: ($900) Kc 5d 2c (2 Players)
razor447 bets $600, tightwkfish calls $600
Turn: ($2,100) Qd (2 Players)
razor447 bets $1,050, tightwkfish raises to $5,250, razor447 calls $3,660 and is all-in, tightwkfish returns $540
River: ($11,520) 2s (2 Players)
razor447 Showed 4s Ac Qs 4d
tightwkfish Showed 3c 4h Jd 9d
razor447 wins $11,520 with HI: two pair, Queens and Deuces
Reason: Adding a link
Im not very keen on a semi-bluff on a draw heavy board against a villain who has been that aggro on every street and put that much of his stack into the pot. He shouldn't really ever be folding. A better time to jam would have been the flop, when he has committed less and your draws have more potential to hit. Your draws arent super nutty, though I think that's not the end of the world since youre heads up, although his continuation on the turn could mean he picked up a bigger flush draw.
I think flatting and seeing if you hit one of your draws is maybe okay, though you may not get paid off if you hit, and when you do it's probably because he also has a share of the pot. But with how much is out there I dont think a flat is really too bad.
I mainly dont like the play because x% of the time you end up with Jack high, no low at showdown and this hand should get to showdown like 95% of the time.
Thanks for your analysis. So I take it in this spot you would elect for the flat call then?Edited By: kbmclain Jun 13th, 2012 at 11:02 PM
The reason I didn't jam on the flop was I had a strong feeling that he was drawing to the wheel which had me in really bad shape. I thought it was much wiser to see how the turn developed and hope that I could get a free card to the river if the turn was a blank.
As for flatting I didn't like it for many of the same reasons you don't. Alot of the value from my hand comes from my draws and I'm likely to have J high at showdown. What do I do if the river is a 7? That leaves me with the 3rd nut low and a huge % of my stack invested. The only thing I liked about flatting was that it might allow me to bluff shove the river if a blank (e.g. 9h) comes and the pot is checked to me. However I did not envision this player giving up on the river especially when I show so much weakness by flatting that board twice
With each street your play narrowed your range in his mind i think. On the flop and PF AA23,AK23, XX23,etc would have reraised to get it in then. I would think he guessed you had A2xx after the flop and he had a lot of FE and quite possibly the best H and L draw after the turn. I dont see what you were representing on the Turn that you wouldnt have potted the Flop with...
Edited By: allynlong Jun 14th, 2012 at 12:18 AM
Why in heavens name would he put me on A2xx? He would have to have a pretty poor image of me to call the flop with bottom pair!
Here are a few hands I might call the flop with and move all in on the turn:
1. KQ, K5, K2 - Flopped top pair or top/bottom and either, was unsure of whether I was ahead, or wanted to wait for the turn to make sure the wheel doesn't get there. There is no way I'm jamming two pair on the flop when I know he has a wheel draw (he snap calls there)
2. KK, 55, 22, QQ - If I have a set in this spot I'll often call the flop to see what happens on the turn and then push when the low doesn't come
Remember we are deepstacked so jamming the flop is not all-in