Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

Huge discussion between 5 of us (Johnster, Reddog, me, and a couple other pros) about a situation in the Bellagio 500nl

Reply to Thread
  1. ahh_snap ahh_snap is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,353
    Joined: Mar 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 1:35am)

    Ok here's the situation.

    Chipleader at 70k and on the button
    Shorty (donk) on SB with 11k
    Reddog133 on BB with 58k

    Payouts are: 1st: $8500 2nd: $4600 3rd: $2800

    Action:

    Chipleader makes it $6k
    SB: flat calls (obv a bad play)
    Reddog has 10 10 and shoves in 58k

    Chipleader auto calls and SB then mucks.

    2 of us think that the shorty should muck his hand hoping to get 2nd (we're putting his range as A9 - J8 (big donk) and 3 of us think its a horrible fold even though he knows he's dominated.

    THOUGHTS?
  2. Ugottook420 Ugottook420 is offline

    Dallas, TX
    United States

    Posts: 813
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 1:38am) in reply to ahh_snap

    If he is playing for a shot at the 8500 its a must call. $1200 in a $500 buy in should not be enough of a factor to lay down anything jack high or better IMO in that situation. Now if it was 5k to 3rd and 9 0r 10 to 2nd, MAYBE fold. But by folding you are giving up on winning.
     
  3. yellowsub yellowsub is offline dive dive dive

    Athens, GA
    United States

    Posts: 1,239
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 1:39am) in reply to ahh_snap

    blinds?
     
  4. Bullox Bullox is offline

    Posts: 785
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 1:44am) in reply to ahh_snap

    How is first only 8500 in a 500 buyin?
    and what are the blinds like yellow said?
    One thing you may not have thought about is that Shorty will no longer be Shorty if CL loses
  5. ahh_snap ahh_snap is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,353
    Joined: Mar 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 1:45am) in reply to Bullox

    Blinds are 1k-2k... We're looking at this purely from a $ point of view.. What play makes him the most money in the long run if he play it out enough times to make variance a non factor. There was only 41 entrants in it today so the payout was much lower than normal. Its usually like a 13k payout and 75 entrants.

    EDIT: The 2 against the call are saying that they personally would call but considering that the guy is a donk he's better off folding.. At least that's their thought process.
    Thread Starter
  6. Crazyhorse76 Crazyhorse76 is online now

    Posts: 2,377
    Joined: Nov 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 1:59am) in reply to ahh_snap

    with the chip leaders instacall, I don't think it is a bad fold. Being a donk, as you say, he is probably not gonna have much of a chance heads-up anyway, I don't mind the fold at all. After all, he needs to survive that hand to have any chance anyway.
     2
  7. ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 3,943
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 2:01am) in reply to Crazyhorse76

    you don't need anyones input. This is entirely a math problem. Break out PokerStove and an ICM calculator, and go nuts. GL.
    1
  8. PocketGnomes PocketGnomes is offline

    Clifton, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 69
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 2:26am) in reply to ActionJeff

    Who ended up winning that hand?
  9. number1pen number1pen is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 3,884
    Joined: Feb 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 2:49am) in reply to PocketGnomes

    i would call but only bc of the large payment increase between 1st and 2nd, in most sngs i fold

    correct answer is whatever marcus says not to do
     
  10. Bubble_Bath Bubble_Bath is offline

    Auckland
    New Zealand

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 2:52am) in reply to ahh_snap

    Disclaimer - have never done this before so could be WAY off...

    If we look at it from the donk's perspective:

    First you need a range for Reddog, who could be making a squeeze hoping to get the big stack out and go one on one versus the small stack donk. Depending on the flow of the game I would put Reddog on pairs 66+ and A10s+

    Next you need a range for the chip leader - he is calling off most of his stack and will be absolutley crippled if he loses so depending on what kind of player he is you have to at least put him on pairs 88+ and AJs+

    Therefore, if the donk has the range that you suggested, then according to pokerstove these are the approximate winning chances:

    Chipleader = 45%
    Reddog = 35%
    Donk = 20%

    Also, between the chipleader and Reddog we get the following winning chances:

    Chipleader = 55%
    Reddog = 45%

    So...

    If Donk plays he will win 33k 20% of the time, and come 3rd 80% of the time

    Possible Outcomes =

    1. Donk wins, Chipleader beats Reddog = 20% * 55% = 11%

    Chipleader = 106k
    Donk = 33k

    ICM = $5500

    2. Donk wins, Reddog beats Chipleader = 9%:

    Chipleader = 12k
    Donk = 33k
    Reddoge = 94k

    ICM = $5000

    3. Donk folds, Chipleader wins = 55%

    Chipleader = 133k
    Donk = 6k

    ICM = $4800

    4. Donk folds, Reddog wins = 45%

    Chipleader = 12k
    Donk = 6k
    Reddog = 121k

    ICM = $3575

    So if he folds, his expected ICM is 0.55*4800 + 0.45*3575 = $4250

    If he calls, his expected ICM is 0.80*2800 + 0.11*5500 + 0.09*5000 = $3295

    $4250 > $3295, so FOLD

    Sound right??
  11. the_schmenx the_schmenx is offline

    Burgh
    Netherlands

    Posts: 5,194
    Joined: Jan 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 3:06am) in reply to ahh_snap

    Unless my read is blatantly strong that the CL has the best hand from the quickness of his call and perhaps a negative reaction from Reddogg I think I have to call.

    If I get a real strong read the other way it's an instacall. If I get no real read I'm leaning towards calling.

    This is a situation where I think you may get a pretty strong read from a lot of players.

    This is assuming I'm in the Twilight Zone and flat call a 6k bet with 11k left 3 handed with a player behind me.

    Can someone tell me what my cards are?
  12. ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 3,943
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 3:33am) in reply to Bubble_Bath

    that looks good, excellent work
    1
  13. cneuy3 cneuy3 is offline

    Chiang Mai
    Thailand

    Posts: 105
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 3:37am) in reply to ahh_snap

    Yes. The SB play was awful but I agree that their best option is now to fold considering the situation.

    A better question is why didn't Reddog just re raise? I think the only hand that is calling his all in here by the chip leader is a hand that has him beat or AK maybe AQ. Lets say the chip leader does fold to his All in. He is almost definitely getting called by the shortstack donk. He may or may not have the SB dominated. He should have just re raised. This accomplishes the same thing as the all in but would allow you the option of folding if the chipleader did indeed come over the top. It also makes your hand appear stronger in my opinion.
  14. Bullox Bullox is offline

    Posts: 785
    Joined: Mar 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 3:40am) in reply to cneuy3

    If it was me ,I fold
    Fold to cash ,Skeet to win
  15. number1pen number1pen is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 3,884
    Joined: Feb 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 4:10am) in reply to the_schmenx

    i think the range of cards are a little off...

    in this situation, its not your typical squeeze play with the guy in a strong 2nd CL putting up all his chips 3 handed with a very small short stack, i think this range of hands (for me atleast) would be AJ-77

    i would not give credit for the sb having a strong hand at all, probably JT-78s-22, this is just too stupid of a play for this player to be any good and know what hes doing

    the button has to have a stonger hand to call this (especially imediately), id say TT-AK (maaaaybe AQ)

    anyways, i thnk this would change the calculation, and i hate being wrong, my instinct says call, but i would never be in the situation in the first place

    EDIT: 1 thing that should be mentioned is that a lot of the decision should be based on the speed of play, if theres all in every other hand, then calling is a much better option, if little action, then folding should be a consideration.
     
  16. Grip Grip is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,917
    Joined: Apr 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 4:24am) in reply to Bullox

    not going off topic....but what time does this tourney start tomorrow ahhh snap? please reply so i can come take it down, thank you

    reply and tell me if you'll be there, il probaly be wearing a forwrd tigers hat
    207 
  17. Bubble_Bath Bubble_Bath is offline

    Auckland
    New Zealand

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 4:36am) in reply to number1pen

    If you tightened the ranges for the Chipleader and Reddog it would make it an even clearer fold...
  18. reddog133 reddog133 is offline

    United States

    Posts: 165
    Joined: Apr 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 7:47am) in reply to Grip

    PEn nailed this on the head.................... am i reallly resteling when i move up for 2k more(which i dont care about per say but they dont know that...... im not moving in AJ im flatting............. ) i think johnster AKA the monster AKA actionjeff thinks he is a joke(i have nothign but sick respect ofr jeffs play) makes the best argument reraise smaller and make the button raiser flat then make the small blind decide and i can gain more info after the flop as he obv hit the Q on the river.............. i dont think my push with TT is terrible but i dont think it was optimal either.............. PS bellagio is joke and its getting owned, tryns are $$$$ obv
  19. degenrat degenrat is offline

    Crosswicks, NJ
    United States

    Posts: 877
    Joined: Feb 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 8:01am) in reply to Grip

    horrible falt call, but then i think it is 100% correct move to fold.

    If the donkey is smart enough to realize he is outplayed by his 2 opponents it's an even better fold.

    YOu fold here and you are no longer the shortstack either way. you now have a good chance or a lock on 2nd place. how is this even a debate?
  20. ahh_snap ahh_snap is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,353
    Joined: Mar 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 8:02am) in reply to reddog133

    Reddog is drunk(as are gank, johnster, and myself) and is about to hook up with a hot chic (he says she's hot, we'll see when she gets here)... but on topic, the bellagio 500 starts at 2pm.. biggest joke of a tourney ever. One of us has won it every time we've played it except this time as Reddog couldn't get KK to hold vs AQ and get AK to hold vs J 10 on a K Q 6 board or get 10 10 to hold vs AQ... The level of play is similiar to that of a $30nl on stars. SOooooooooooooooo bad.

    ps Gank is seriously the greatest beer pong player i have ever seen. he won like 8 str8 games of competitive beer pong. what a sicko.
    Thread Starter
  21. ahh_snap ahh_snap is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,353
    Joined: Mar 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 8:04am) in reply to ahh_snap

    Also.. I think the donk's fold is good considering how bad at poker he was.. I realize that mathematically speaking its a horrible fold and I woulda called any 2 personally but if i was a friend of his and had a 50% stake in his play i woulda told him to fold. The guy was sooooooooooo bad. Worse than UH BIG TEX.

    SHERMINATOR!
    Thread Starter
  22. Bubble_Bath Bubble_Bath is offline

    Auckland
    New Zealand

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 8:29am) in reply to ahh_snap

    "I realize that mathematically speaking its a horrible fold"

    Um, i thought that i showed that it was a GOOD fold - by almost a thousand bucks.

    And even it isn't a good fold then it is very close and definitely not a horrible fold
  23. sheets sheets is offline

    Syosset, NY
    United States

    Posts: 2,254
    Joined: Jan 05

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 9:09am) in reply to ahh_snap

    (EDIT,,,,,,,,,,,,,,JUST SAW BUBBLE BATH DID ALL THIS...ALBEIT WITH SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS, BUT THE RESULS ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME ..SO IGNORE)

    Ok, as usual in this kind of thing, this is a pure math question (well almost pure, but close enough, and obv impossible to calculate over the board, but anyway..)....so here it is....

    I am putting the big stack on a range of QQ+,AK althoug adding in JJ changes things ever so slightly....none theless Reddogg has 37% against the instacaller big stack, and just so I dont have to reiterate it again, if everyone calls, the donk has 15% of tripling according to pokerstove, and my $ ev calcs are simple icm calculations

    A.If Donk folds, his equity is combined of the sum of:

    1.63% OF THE TIME reddig is ousted and donk is left with $ equity of $4740 (.63*4740)=$2986
    2.37% of the time reddog doubles and donk is left with $ equity of $3475 (.37*3475)=$1285

    or combined, by folding he has $4271 in equity if he folds.

    B. If Donk calls, his equity is combined of the sum of:

    1.63% of the time that donk triples up (15%), donk will be heads up and have $5597 in equity ..or..(.15*.63*5597)=$528.91
    2.37% of the time donk triples up he will be 3 handed and will have $3700 in equity or..(.37*.15*3700)=$205.35
    3.85% of the time he will lose and get 3rd money of $2800 (.85*2800)=$2380

    or combined, he has $3114 in equity if he calls.


    This is, thus, (IGNORING ANY EXTRANEOUS CONSIDERATIONS) a trivially easy fold.

    sheets
     
  24. Grip Grip is offline

    United States

    Posts: 1,917
    Joined: Apr 06

    Jun 21st, 2006 (6/21/2006 11:53pm) in reply to ahh_snap

    Wait a second, you live in henderson, play cards and love a competetive game of beer pong???? dude, we are gonna have to start partyin' real soon. me and my roomate will own all. BRING IT!
    207 
  25. OMG_LOL_WTF OMG_LOL_WTF is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 2,628
    Joined: Nov 05

    Jun 22nd, 2006 (6/22/2006 12:13am) in reply to sheets

    There you have it!

    Fold to cash; skeet to win!

    Finally, someone crunches the numbers.

    Cheers.
  26. ActionJeff ActionJeff is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

    Posts: 3,943
    Joined: Oct 05

    Jun 22nd, 2006 (6/22/2006 12:30am) in reply to OMG_LOL_WTF

    Bubble_Bath already crunched the numbers, lol.

    I like it when people are willing to do the math =)
    1
Reply to Thread