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hunting for the coinflip

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  1. sparks4 sparks4 is offline

    Casper, WY
    United States

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 1:32pm)

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Here's a question i have and i would like as many opinions as possible. I was playing in the $5 rebuy on bodog last night, the rebuy period is over and i'm the deepstack at the table. i've been playing well and surprisingly getting alot of respect at the table. After the rebuy period ends and the blinds have gone up to 100-200 i get dealt 33in the cutoff, the player to my right raises it up to 675 and commits most of his chips. i put him on AK AQ maybe KQ but i figured he would have pushed with a large pair so i reraised him all in. i knew i went hunting for that coinflip situation, and he ended up having QJ off and hit his J, no big deal. My question is should i have made that play knowing i was going in 50-50? let me know what you think.

    Sparks </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  2. Stupor_Mundi Stupor_Mundi is offline

    Silver Spring, MD
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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 1:43pm) in reply to sparks4

    Big stacks should gamble to get bigger stacks... only way to win.
  3. Randomizer Randomizer is offline

    Virginia Beach, VA
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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 1:49pm) in reply to sparks4

    In this situation I think u did the right thing. You had the chips to take a chance to knock out another player. I think u got to take it, especially if it's really not going to hurt your stack if u lose.

    I was going to start a similar thread asking the question, "When is it OK to take a obvious coinflip situation? By this i mean calling an all in bet where u expect to be in a coin flip or reraising when u expect a call. I would be very curious to know what the top MTT players think about this. At what point do you decide to risk it all on an obvious coin flip situation?
     
  4. Suthereader Suthereader is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:03pm) in reply to sparks4

    There's something else here you might want to ponder....What effect do you think you have on the table when you push all-in with pocket 3s....Do you think the respect will continue? What happens to the table dynamics...
  5. sparks4 sparks4 is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:05pm) in reply to Randomizer

    See and thats a good question too. I don't know if you ever want to risk it all on an at best coinflip spot unless you're shortstacked and the blinds are comming around. But when you have a average to above average stack the only way i could go purposefully into a coinflip situation is when its against a true shortstack in the hope either they through it away or your going in with at least the 52% than the 48%. i think thats the only way i could pull the trigger.

    Sparks
    Thread Starter
  6. No1CeLtSfAn34 No1CeLtSfAn34 is offline

    Herndon, VA
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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:06pm) in reply to sparks4

    as far as this specific hand goes, your play wit 33 is fine IMO. However, what suthereader says is an awesome point. People may fear that you put some1 all-in w/33, but they will also open up their calling rqanges a bit to try and get big stacks themself vs u.
  7. sparks4 sparks4 is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:10pm) in reply to Suthereader

    Very good point. and to be honest i didn't think about that fact at all. But I definatly see where that road can go... so okay next question, which becomes more important, try to bust the guy with a marginal at best situation and get 1 closer to the money or throw it away to preserve table image?
    Thread Starter
  8. Stupor_Mundi Stupor_Mundi is offline

    Silver Spring, MD
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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:12pm) in reply to No1CeLtSfAn34

    If they do that, all you have to do is tighten up for a few orbits and they will spew chips when you get hands.
  9. JackBileDuct JackBileDuct is offline

    Mactan
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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:28pm) in reply to sparks4

    If it were me I'd call and try to push him around post flop. If you think he has big unpaired paint, then provided he has not made his hand on the flop he is going to be easy to push out of the hand. By going all in you gave him no choice. He was small stacked and committed. Basically you gave him two free cards. If you call and let him miss the flop, you take it down with a bet and nobody sees your threes. If an A, K, or Q, was out there which is what you thought he had, then you can get out of the and, save some money, not double him, and not show you are calling with 3's.
  10. Suthereader Suthereader is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 2:36pm) in reply to sparks4

    I think Jennifear has a coinflips article...you may want to read that...but its probably about coinflips early in the tournament....You'll see people getting more likely to take flips late in the tournament, but pocket 3s are vulnerable to domination...The way to look at small pockets is as more of a drawing hand...If you lose the flip you'll lose some of your edge on the table as well as chips, but things might be about to bust loose anyways...but as Cloutier points out in his books...some hands are "chip burners" so you save chips for more positive EV hands...You're suppose to put your money in with the best hands....against AK pocket 3s are only a 1.2 to 1 favorite... I've never seen any pros go all in with pocket 3s though I'm sure there are exceptions... the dividing line seems to be more around pocket 8s or 9s for all in maneuvers, but if you're a desperate small stack go for it or maybe in a headsup finals situation I'd consider it ...
  11. peeved peeved is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 3:02pm) in reply to sparks4

    There are only three situations where I WANT to take a close gamble with a big stack before the FT: When my action has least 10% fold equity; when pot odds dictate, ie I'm in one of the blinds; and when it will improve my table image, usually showing I'll defend my blinds or an early minraise. Otherwise I'm thinking pass, especially with counterfit 3s.

    Remember that a chip you lose, even with a big stack, is worth more than a chip you win in freezout tournament play unless taking a player out moves you instantly up in the money.

    As to the smooth call, if shorty is any kind of a player at all, you cant push him off post-flop. He's all in on the flop no matter what hits.
  12. sparks4 sparks4 is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 3:29pm) in reply to Suthereader

    Now i see what you mean as far as pushing all in with 33 and it's really something i would never do, but that wasn't the case here. In this situation i'm sitting with right around 12k in chips, and the player directly to my right has about 1175 or so... he raises to 675 and i reraise the min to 1350 to put him in and take the flip right there. it was more of the situation of the big stack trying to be the elimanator than the small stack pushing with 33 to double up. like i said i knew this was 50-50 at best, I just didn't know if this might be the spot to raise, or just fold and pick a better spot down the road.

    Sparks
    Thread Starter
  13. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

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    Feb 1st, 2007 (2/1/2007 7:27pm) in reply to Suthereader

    My take on coinflips are they are best to take when you are short.

    I do think that pressing any edge at any time is a good play, however, even if that edge is very small.
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