u have 15 bbs? why would u fold here?

Never ever folding here!

i prob dont fold in play. But i dont see it being flame worthy. you were prob right.

Most likely scenario is you are sharing an A with someone and the other has a pair...so I don't think it's absolutely horrendous but you're gambling you're going to find a better spot in the next couple orbits. I doubt it do that and just stick it in and try to make FT.

 

Originally Posted by jinx_987

wow i take it u usually play $2 tournys and took a shot and now ur playing with scared money? a fold is just horrible imo with 15bb, get it in and make or break FT

No a fold is not horrible. Slightly nitty yes, horrible no. The first line in this post tilts me and is the kind of unnecessary, douchey, noob shit that is not needed in this forum. gtfo

Nobody thinks you call if you have chips in the pot, but fold since he watched it all happen from the SB?

None of the pre-flop action matters, or the fact that he hasn't already put money in?

Just his stack and cards are all that matter here?

I don't see how this is bad. Some people just auto shove AK no matter the action. There are spots where it's obvious when AK is no good and this is one of them.

A lot of the value from AK comes from fold equity or when you think you can get a dominated hand to call. You don't have fold equity in this spot and are likely a significant underdog to any pocket pair due to card removal. Sure once in a while a crazy hand will come up and you would've won a big pot, but I'd say you lose way more often than you win in a spot like this and you can wait for a better 1.

 

Originally Posted by apology7

obviously no one is loving AK right here w/ all of that action.. but waiting 'for a better spot' with 15 big blinds and A SHIT TON of chips already in the pot is terrible. you're stack is low, it's time to gamble and build so that you don't have to nit it up. the strategy here always tilts the heck out of me

I respect the badge and all but don't you think calling here would be practically the same as calling w/ 9Ts. Vs the ranges of the 3 bet and the cold 4bet AKo has about the same equity as a mid suited connector. I think you'd have a better edge folding this and shoving ATC on the BTN the next hand.

I'm certainly open to any logic that trumps this but I just don't see it.

I briefly thought about folding AK earlier with 15BB because it was the bubble and I could get $80 by folding. A second later I remembered I was bankrolled properly and don't care about mincashing. Or in this case bubbling.

 

Originally Posted by Limo Wreck

I respect the badge and all but don't you think calling here would be practically the same as calling w/ 9Ts. Vs the ranges of the 3 bet and the cold 4bet AKo has about the same equity as a mid suited connector. I think you'd have a better edge folding this and shoving ATC on the BTN the next hand.

I'm certainly open to any logic that trumps this but I just don't see it.

cold 4better usually shows up with JJ+, AQ+ but sometimes worse if he's a lunatic and depending what the table dynamic is ilke. AK does a lot better against that range than a mid-suited connector. I'd pull up poker stove but frankly that's a waste of time because I already know the answer. there's so much in the pot it's almost impossible to fold this. I'd much rather gamble with villians range here and accumulate a big stack to take to the final table than nit it up waiting for that dream-come-true Ace-Ten on the button that's never going to come

cold five bettor should be JJ+ AK+ everyone else is pretty hard to range.

seems like a great spot to chip up n acquire a stack with great win-the-tournament equity. u can fold n like apology said already hope to cooler someone or get lucky, orrrrr you can take a likely flip for a great stack. i get her in here

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

JJ - 13:10 Dog
QQ - 13:10 Dog
KK - 13:5 dog
AA - 6:1 dog (rough guess)
AQ - 6:1 fav (rough guess)
AK - Even Money
LH (Lunatic Hand) - 5:3 fav (rough guess AK vs XX)

So the value isn't in these ranges. I guess the value is in the fact that you could win.

You could argue that taking a 25% chance here to win 120,000 is mathematically the same as having three opponents dominated 75% to 25% for $40,000 chips each.

Say you have a 75% chance of busting here, and pass it up, then get three equally stacked opponents dominated individually 75/25. Your chances of busting in one of those three hands ends up being 75%, the same as in the larger pot above.

The caveat is, if you wait for the 75% chance, then you will win that 3/4 of the time, so you wont be as easy to bust. That is true, but also, you aren't just winning 120k chips here, but the bully rights that go with it, so you need to weigh that too. And, how many chips will you have left when you get that 75/25?

is this along the correct line of thinking to justify this call?

these calculations are misleading, just give the percentage of ak against this range, because the percentage of each hand in the range is not the same, aa and kk come up a lot less often since u have blockers than qq's

 

Originally Posted by andressoprano

Seat 5: bossamtisch (34916 in chips)

schmilf: raises 2600 to 4600
iggyping: folds
letathena: folds
bossamtisch: raises 5400 to 10000

^^^If this guy has less than KK I'm taking 6 months off from poker. Good fold.

He might have JJ-QQ...

See you in a couple days?

 

Originally Posted by gjallen1975

AA - 6:1 dog (rough guess)
AQ - 6:1 fav (rough guess)

So you think that the odds of AK cracking AA are the same as the odds of AK getting cracked by AQ?