Check out our brand new Local Poker Communities! Get updates and interact with poker players in your area.
Visit the United States Poker Community | Visit the California Poker Community | Read more about the Launch of P5s Local

If you start with step 1...how many...

Reply to Thread
  1. Chet22r Chet22r is offline

    Fort Myers, FL
    United States

    Posts: 287
    Joined: Oct 07

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:14pm)

    I am not a probability and have the time to break that the math myself. But as of right now, I have obtained 17 step 2 ticket's, given the payout structures of the higher steps. I am looking to have a rough estimate of how many more step 2's I should try to obtain to give myself a decent shot of obtaining a package. I am a winning player longterm, have experience playing step 6's in previous years vs the regs, confident I only a slight dog vs them, and only will be buying in directly to step 1's.

    Ideally, I understand an infinite number of step 2's would be beneficial. But is 20,25,30,35...50 the best. The least amount the better, but so far I have played 50 step 1's, obtained 17 step 2's. Im probably spitting into the wind with this question, but just a rough idea is all I need.
  2. 27utg 27utg is offline

    Chapel Hill, NC
    United States

    Posts: 617
    Joined: Feb 09

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:22pm) in reply to Chet22r

    all you need is 1.... and a dream
  3. creekhouse creekhouse is offline

    Live Oak, CA
    United States

    Posts: 278
    Joined: Oct 06

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:38pm) in reply to 27utg

    <H4 class=P5_PostHeader> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center><TD vAlign=top align=left rowSpan=2> </TD><TD align=left colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Re:If you start with step 1...how many... </TD><TD vAlign=center align=right>In reply to </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD align=left>By 27utg on 04-27-2009 5:22 PM </TD><TD align=right>Reply Quote </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></H4> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD class=P5_PostContent><TABLE height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=ForumPostContentText>all you need is 1.... and a dream

    </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

    All u need is one and a horseshoe up your arse!!!
     
  4. Laois Hammer Laois Hammer is offline

    Port Laoise
    Ireland

    Posts: 536
    Joined: May 08

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:41pm) in reply to 27utg

    well if it takes you 50 step 1s to get 17 step 2s

    it might take 50 step 2s to get 17 step 3s but step has better players i guess but im sure theres some kind of proper math behind what im trying to say
     
  5. Mr Galt Mr Galt is offline sister-in-law's a ho

    Overland Park, KS
    United States

    Posts: 9,097
    Joined: Nov 07

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:45pm) in reply to Chet22r

    Assuming all players are of equal skill, ahem, you have a 2/9 or 2/10 chance to advance through each round. Figure out the probability you wish to secure for the step 6 and work backwards. You will win at a higher rate in earlier steps but that will even out as you hit the regulars in 5 and 6.
  6. jdawg0913 jdawg0913 is offline

    Philadelphia, PA
    United States

    Posts: 871
    Joined: Dec 06

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:48pm) in reply to Laois Hammer

    i was gonna say the same thing

    usuing that logic, do u feel u will win a step 6 with 17 step 3's? i think u need 10 step 6's. thats a tall order. i dont think a 100 step 2's are enough. but then again, all u have to do is run really good for a couple of these. im sure there are people who only need 10 step 2's and 1 step 6. i know that i need more lol
  7. Mr Galt Mr Galt is offline sister-in-law's a ho

    Overland Park, KS
    United States

    Posts: 9,097
    Joined: Nov 07

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 6:55pm) in reply to Chet22r

    one guy on pxf invested about 1k into the step system and finished with four Step 6s. He ran those four step 6s into 0.00. Got lots of fpps at least....
  8. skillivey skillivey is offline

    Los Angeles, CA
    United States

    Posts: 375
    Joined: Apr 06

    Apr 27th, 2009 (4/27/2009 9:54pm) in reply to Mr Galt

     
    Originally Posted by Mr Galt View Post

    one guy on pxf invested about 1k into the step system and finished with four Step 6s. He ran those four step 6s into 0.00. Got lots of fpps at least....

    so he payed step 6? went o for 4
    I'm actually trying a similar idea i think 10+ 2nd steps should give u a few good shots if you know what your doin
  9. Bawsten Bawsten is offline

    Fort Myers, FL
    United States

    Posts: 4,967
    Joined: May 07

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 2:54am) in reply to Chet22r

    what a dum dum
  10. GambleAB GambleAB is offline 1. I'm awesome

    Las Vegas, NV
    United States

    Posts: 5,493
    Joined: Apr 05

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 3:39am) in reply to Chet22r

    If you figure you have a 10% roi in sngs, then you just need to work backwards.

    Step 6 pays out a 12k package, so you need to invest 10909 in that.

    You need to make 10909 in step 5, so you need to invest 9917 in that.

    You need to make 9917 in step 4, so you need to invest 9015 in that.

    You need to make 9015 in step 3, so you need to invest 8195 in that.

    Which means you need to invest 7450 in step 2.

    The buyin to Step 2 is $27, so you need about 276 tickets.
     
  11. ntanygd760 ntanygd760 is offline

    Fort Drum, NY
    United States

    Posts: 5,495
    Joined: Jul 08

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 3:46am) in reply to GambleAB

    will you be able to use step 4s and 5s to buy into mtt sats of equal value. I think you have a better shot than trying to take on step 6s.
     
  12. woosewoo woosewoo is offline

    Posts: 102
    Joined: Jan 07

    May 1st, 2009 (5/1/2009 4:10am) in reply to Chet22r

    Some of the math you were given above isn't the best way to go about this, saying your chances of moving up is 2/9 is discounting the fact that steps pay more than just top two, for example in step 3, since 5th-3rd allow you to play again, you can say that when you actually recieve something other than a replay, 2 times you will have advanced and 4 times you will have lost, so your chances of eventually recieveing a step 4 ticket is not 2/9 but 2/6 (assume everyone's an equal player)

    The easier way to go about the math is just assume that your $27 ticket is a 27/12000 shot of winning, the only thing that you need to account for is the rake that you'll pay. If there was no rake and your full ticket value went into the prize pool and the pool was paid out in the same proportions for all steps, then winning a step 6 would be worth 16710, so the chance of turning a step 2 into a step 6 eventually after jumping up and down steps is 27/16710 or about .16%. The chance that at least 1 of your 17 step 2s turns into a step 6 is 1-(1-(27/16710))^17) = 2.7%

    If you'd like to adujst for your personal ROI then replace the 27 in the equation with the amount you get below:

    27*(1+ROI for step 2)*(1+ROI for step 3)*(1+ROI for step 4)*(1+ROI for step 5)*(1+ROI for step 6)

    Note: ROI should not include amount lost to rake

    And to see how many step 2's you need just replace the number 17 in the equation with a different number of tickets.
Reply to Thread