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interesting .5/1 6max spot

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  1. THEE Catfish THEE Catfish is offline

    Columbus, OH
    United States

    Posts: 633
    Joined: Apr 06

    Dec 9th, 2007 (12/9/2007 3:33pm)

    pokerstars GAME #13754830880: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/12/09 - 16:09:54 (ET)
    Table 'Siegma II' 6-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: TheeCatfish ($139.15 in chips)
    Seat 2: chloesdada ($37.55 in chips)
    Seat 3: solo319 ($29.80 in chips)
    Seat 4: DonBlinky ($158 in chips)
    Seat 5: kdogmc ($297.65 in chips)
    Seat 6: semolavi ($12.25 in chips)
    chloesdada: posts small blind $0.50
    solo319: posts big blind $1
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to TheeCatfish [Ks As]
    DonBlinky: folds
    kdogmc: raises $4 to $5
    semolavi: folds
    TheeCatfish: raises $15 to $20
    chloesdada: folds
    solo319: folds
    kdogmc: calls $15
    *** FLOP *** [3s 5d Ts]
    kdogmc: bets $277.65 and is all-in

    what do you put villian on and whats your play
  2. Mr_Stapler Mr_Stapler is offline

    Blairstown, MO
    United States

    Posts: 86
    Joined: Dec 07

    Dec 9th, 2007 (12/9/2007 6:46pm) in reply to THEE Catfish

    Either a set or a BS spade hand. It would make sense to fast play a set here especially given your re raise but this is a huge fast play obviously. You cant call becaue the best you could hope for is aq aj and you lose outs against a set. In this situation i think its a definite fold. You can find a better spot for all of your money.

    T dot J dot
  3. haphazard01 haphazard01 is offline

    Milwaukee, WI
    United States

    Posts: 76
    Joined: Oct 06

    Dec 9th, 2007 (12/9/2007 11:24pm) in reply to THEE Catfish

    99 and I call. A10 is probably the worst case scenerio. Maybe a worse spade hand, but that's a bit of a stretch given the action. You're calling 119 or so into a 159 pot. Someone who's set mining 33 and 55 doesn't open raise preflop, so I can only reasonably see a set of 10's. I don't know why they wouldn't let you commit your remaining 119 stack with an overpair since you reraised preflop. Any hand that would call this bet would also bet after being checked to and call a checkraise all in. You're compelled to fire a CB here that's going to be decent sized with hands you'd fold to this bet. Therefore I just can't see this being a hand. Therefore you kind of have to think that this is a hand that doesn't want action.

    You may be freerolling to your spade flush against AK too. I think you're ahead of his range since you get to see two cards, since I also can't see AA/KK taking this line.

    Of course I have no idea how kdog plays, and he may be playing a scared pair of 10's or JJ. Or he may just be gambling that you have AK or AQ. I also don't know what you've been 3 betting with and how often. If you've been frequently reraising preflop, I call this often. If you haven't been 3-betting preflop I'd tend to call this less.

    This exact hand is the reason I've stopped 3-betting AK preflop when in position. I've created a huge preflop pot (can't really fire 2 barrels if necessary) and I'm only hitting AK 1 of 3 times. Plus on those 2 of 3 times you whiff, you have to make a CB that is basically committing your stack.
  4. AceSpade2675 AceSpade2675 is offline

    Lafayette, IN
    United States

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    Dec 10th, 2007 (12/10/2007 12:41am) in reply to THEE Catfish

    Fold.....pick a better spot to get your stack in. At best you are a small favorite against his range. Unless he has been shoving light that you have seen I think this one is a fold
  5. ZEN888 ZEN888 is offline

    United Kingdom

    Posts: 22
    Joined: Jun 07

    Dec 10th, 2007 (12/10/2007 5:34am) in reply to THEE Catfish

    Its an instant fold. You have virtually no equity in making the play.

    If
    Villian has 6s7s,7s8s,JsQs or KsQs. Any of these he has the flush and backdoor straights.

    Your not a fav

    If
    Villian has a set

    Your near enough drawing dead or to a runner runner and hope villian does not fill up.

    If
    Villian has any pair

    Your still not a fav and need to hit

    So the only hand you are getting in good is an AQ or AJ.

    I put the villian on a flush draw or Aces/Kings.
  6. sathers sathers is offline

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    Dec 10th, 2007 (12/10/2007 5:53am) in reply to ZEN888

    IMO - Zen if the villain is drawing to a flush then OP should call because the spade gives the nuts or have I read it wrong?

    I think that he is either playing JJ/QQ/KK or the rockets I think this because I am not sure I would call such a raise if I didnt have one of these. I think that an over pair to the board is a most likely choice here cos I have seen it played like this a thousand times were they insta shove when they are holding the over pair in the pocket. I have also seen 99 played the same way and like one of the posts above says they are hoping you are playing AK and that you will fold when no ace or king hits.

    In this scenario I usually have to have a good read on the player to call. Did it play out ?
  7. haphazard01 haphazard01 is offline

    Milwaukee, WI
    United States

    Posts: 76
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    Dec 10th, 2007 (12/10/2007 11:54am) in reply to ZEN888

    I don't think you read the post too closely...

    Scenerio 1: Maybe 10-15% of the time, decent favorite.

    He's a favorite and doesn't have to improve vs all of the hands here. Plus opponent cannot have KsQs, since you have the AsKs.

    Scenerio 2: Maybe 5-10% of the time, 3:1 or so dog.

    This just isn't happening very often given the opponent's line, and you're not in such horrible shape anyhow.

    Scenerio 3: Most likely spot, 1.5:1 fav or even

    You're also ahead of any pair less than kings since you get to see two cards and there will be no more betting, assuming you're not sharing a kicker. Two overs plus flush draw is about a 1.5:1 favorite vs a pair that doesn't share a kicker and is about even with a hand that does share a kicker.

    You're only a 3:1 dog (by my guesstimates) a small percent of the time, and the rest you're a 1.5:1 or better favorite.
  8. TheMayor TheMayor is offline

    Boston, MA
    United States

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    Dec 10th, 2007 (12/10/2007 11:58am) in reply to THEE Catfish

    150:110 pot odds you only need to be 42% against his range to make calling +EV.

    As long as he doesnt have AA/KK (ruled out by the preflop? most likely) or a set (ruled out by the donk shove on the flop? almost definitely) then you are gold.

    Call.
  9. saukendar saukendar is offline

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    Joined: Mar 07

    Dec 10th, 2007 (12/10/2007 1:14pm) in reply to THEE Catfish

    His bet says he has an over PR and wants to bet the darw out.

    Looks like you are facing JJ or QQ most of the time in this case you have 9+6 = fav to river.

    If the over PR is KK its 12 and you are behind but the overlay is enough.

    If you find AA then its 9 and you are a 2/1 dog.

    Set and you are a 3/1 dog.

    lesser flush or flush + str8 draws - you are ahead and your 6 overs offset his 6 str8 - all good.

    The play discounts the sets and supports the over PRs. You are partly blocking As and Ks so you have to weight the Js and Qs over the A and Ks. Overall this looks like a high variance must call situation.

    my 2 cents
  10. babyblueeyes babyblueeyes is offline

    Stamford, CT
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    Dec 11th, 2007 (12/11/2007 3:50pm) in reply to THEE Catfish

    Before I give my decision-here's my thought process. Assuming the opponent is solid and plays well-I think I can assume no set of 3's or 5's but the 10's might be there. He isn't playing against a stack of the same size, which I think is very important, and calling a 4x bet pf where the odds of hitting a set is 7.5 against-the odds against just don't justify him calling to set mine here if he is solid. This is a smart bet OOP if he holds JJ-QQ and up, which I think he has since he is only risking about $119. For the player with AKs-I like the hand but there are no implied odds and it is possible 1 of your outs is gone or maybe more if he has KK or AA. 2 pair no way-set unlikely except 10,10 and an overpair is most likely. I probably go for it.
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