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Interesting analysis of $11 DS vs. $16 turbo SNGs

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  1. servitup servitup is offline

    Chapel Hill, NC
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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 1:31pm)

    Ok, so lately I have been doing some thinking about the profitability of playing $11 DS to the stars million for $T vs. $16 turbo SNGs as bankroll builders. So today I am sitting in an Endo lecture and decide to run some numbers for comparison. The gray fields are fields I had to fill in. I generated the numbers based off of the 675 $16 turbos I have played. I have not played many of the DS's so I tried to extrapolate my estimates based off of my results in the 16s + 1.4% for the 9th player being eliminated + 0.3% for my edge. Bottom line, based off these numbers it is much more profitable to play the turbos and they are less variance.
    PS I just realized it may not be clear but on the 2nd table there are 2 winners.
    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=369 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP> <COL width=64> <COL width=83> <COL width=94> <COL span=2 width=64> <TBODY><TR height=17><TD class=xl22 width=305 colSpan=4 height=17>$11 DS to Satellite Million vs. $16 turbo SNGs</TD><TD class=xl24 width=64></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl25 height=17>$11 DS</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD>1st table</TD><TD>Profit 1st table</TD><TD>2nd table</TD><TD class=xl26>Profit</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>1st</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.14499999999999999">14.50%</TD><TD>TBD</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.27800000000000002">27.80%</TD><TD class=xl29 align=right x:num="204">$204.00</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>2nd-8th</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.85499999999999998" x:fmla="=1-B4">85.50%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="-11">-$11.00</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.72199999999999998" x:fmla="=1-D4">72.20%</TD><TD class=xl29 align=right x:num="24">$24.00</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl32>$EV/tourney</TD><TD class=xl32>Expected ROI</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="1.3308" x:fmla="=B5*C5+B4*(D4*E4+D5*E5)">$1.33</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.12098181818181818" x:fmla="=B8/11">12.10%</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl33 height=17>$16 Turbo</TD><TD>Profit/Loss</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>1st</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.12740740740740741" x:fmla="=86/675">12.74%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="51.5">$51.50</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>2nd</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.1362962962962963" x:fmla="=92/675">13.63%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="24.5">$24.50</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>3rd</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.12888888888888889" x:fmla="=87/675">12.89%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="11">$11.00</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>4th-9th</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.6074074074074074" x:fmla="=1-B11-B12-B13">60.74%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="-16">-$16.00</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl32>$EV/tourney</TD><TD class=xl32>Expected ROI</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="1.6" x:fmla="=(B11*C11)+(B12*C12)+(B13*C13)+(B14*C14)"> $1.60</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.1" x:fmla="=B17/16">10.00%</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl34 colSpan=3 height=17>*Assumption is full DS field.</TD><TD class=xl35></TD><TD class=xl36></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
  2. neophyte neophyte is offline

    Williamsburg, VA
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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 2:20pm) in reply to servitup

    Thx for posting this! This is generally what i thought would happen. How many DS did you play? (I have done awfull in my limited attempts atht eh DS, one time i got beat with a huge CL to some guy who didn't even wanna play anymore...it was sad)
  3. yomamanodros yomamanodros is offline

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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 2:59pm) in reply to neophyte

    I think it is possible to have a much higher ROI than that for the double shootouts. I only have a sample size of 50 so far, but my ROI is over 200% for the turbo ones. Most people are so bad at playing winner take all tournaments that I have been winning my first table 24% of the time. These are the most profiitable tournaments for me by far. The majority of players are very very bad in these things.
  4. servitup servitup is offline

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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 3:30pm) in reply to yomamanodros

    Your sample is meaningless. My sample of 675 is still too small to be dead on but it is a much better reflection. I would suggest that no matter how bad the competition, you can't maintain that win rate at the first table nor that ROI but congratulations on the well timed heater ;-). On the other hand, I agree that it is possible to have a higher ROI than my little model suggested. How high, though, is debatable. My sample size for these is 3! All I have done is guess at what I may expect. In the three I played, I got heads up in 2 at the first table and took 1 bad beat and lost 1 race so no return. That is what got me to thinking about it. I definitely don't think even the best players could expect any higher than maybe 18-20% 1sts on the first table.
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  5. yomamanodros yomamanodros is offline

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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 6:59pm) in reply to servitup

    I realize that my sample size is very small. I wasn't trying to say that maintaining that ROI is possible, I was just trying to say that it is possible to maintain a much higher return than the example. I think that is is possible to maintain a much higher win rate than 14.5% at the first table. If everyone played at the same skill level and the cards were even you would win 12.5% of the time. The fact is that most of these people have not played many winner take all tournaments, so someone who plays them often and understands the stategy needed could certainly maintain a win rate of around 18-20%.

    The second table in these things is much easier than the first because the first few people usually go out fast because they already made some money and are willing to take big risks to get a big stack. The players who are patient early and wait a level or two before opening up their game will often get action from the weak players who have chipped up early and don't see anything wrong with calling a 4x raise with A10 because they have money to burn. By the time there are 4 players left people start to tighten up to try and sneak into the money. I come in and start stealing tons of blinds and build a little bit a lead. The bubble on these is much more of a stealing point than in regular SNGs and if you have a nice lead you can get the blinds almost every hand by just pushing. If you double up a short stack you just gained an ally in getting the last person out so there really isn't a down side to this strategy if you have a decent amount of chips and are facing two smaller stacks.

    While I don't think that maintaining a ROI anywhere near mine is possible over the long run, I would say that they can be significantly more profitable than regular SNGs.
  6. yomamanodros yomamanodros is offline

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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 7:42pm) in reply to yomamanodros

    Oh and using anything other than winner take all tournaments to determine your numbers is going to make them very far from accurate. Even if you had played 3000 turbo SNGs you would still be comparing two completely different things. One of the reasons that these can be so profitable is because people like yourself think of them as regular SNGs. I am not saying that to attack you, I am trying to point out a common misconception among the people who play these.
  7. servitup servitup is offline

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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 9:16pm) in reply to servitup

    Well against my own advice from earlier, I played another one just now. Unless the ones I am in are outliers, I must admit the play is much much much much much worse than a normal $16 turbo. I got heads up again for the 3rd of 4 times I have played these and finally won one. At the final table I looked up sharkscope on the last 7 players and only 1 of the 6 was a winning player other than myself and most were bigtime losers. The average VPIP during the final table until I busted was 48%!! Unreal! The guy who busted me called off 2/3 of his stack to my all in push w/ JTo. I had Q5s and the best hand didn't hold. I think I will have to reevaluate my numbers. I would love to hear from someone with a large sample of these, even if just 150 or more.

    HEre is the same thing w/ my updated numbers. I must eat crow now!! I think it could go up even more too. I am sold on playing at least 100-200 of these and will report back on my success.

    <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=369 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP> <COL width=64> <COL width=83> <COL width=94> <COL span=2 width=64> <TBODY><TR height=17><TD class=xl22 width=305 colSpan=4 height=17>$11 DS to Satellite Million vs. $16 turbo SNGs</TD><TD class=xl24 width=64></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl25 height=17>$11 DS</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD>1st table</TD><TD>Profit 1st table</TD><TD>2nd table</TD><TD class=xl26>Profit</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>1st</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.2">20.00%</TD><TD>TBD</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.27800000000000002">27.80%</TD><TD class=xl29 align=right x:num="204">$204.00</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>2nd-8th</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.8" x:fmla="=1-B4">80.00%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="-11">-$11.00</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.72199999999999998" x:fmla="=1-D4">72.20%</TD><TD class=xl29 align=right x:num="24">$24.00</TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl32>$EV/tourney</TD><TD class=xl32>Expected ROI</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="6.0080000000000009" x:fmla="=B5*C5+B4*(D4*E4+D5*E5)">$6.01</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.54618181818181821" x:fmla="=B8/11">54.62%</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl33 height=17>$16 Turbo</TD><TD>Profit/Loss</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>1st</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.12740740740740741" x:fmla="=86/675">12.74%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="51.5">$51.50</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>2nd</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.1362962962962963" x:fmla="=92/675">13.63%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="24.5">$24.50</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>3rd</TD><TD class=xl28 align=right x:num="0.12888888888888889" x:fmla="=87/675">12.89%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="11">$11.00</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17>4th-9th</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.6074074074074074" x:fmla="=1-B11-B12-B13">60.74%</TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="-16">-$16.00</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl32>$EV/tourney</TD><TD class=xl32>Expected ROI</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl31 align=right x:num="1.6" x:fmla="=(B11*C11)+(B12*C12)+(B13*C13)+(B14*C14)"> $1.60</TD><TD class=xl30 align=right x:num="0.1" x:fmla="=B17/16">10.00%</TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl27 height=17></TD><TD class=xl26></TD></TR><TR height=17><TD class=xl34 colSpan=3 height=17>*Assumption is full DS field.</TD><TD class=xl35></TD><TD class=xl36></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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  8. yomamanodros yomamanodros is offline

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    Jul 7th, 2006 (7/7/2006 9:49pm) in reply to servitup

    I will do the same. I won't be playing many for the next week because I am looking for a new place to live, but I will do start playing a bunch when I get a chance. It should be interesting to see what we will be able to maintain. GL
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