Kinda looking for a bit of an edit my thoughts are probably mad jumbled and wanted some thoughts sent this hand+ analysis into cardplayer thought id post it here after writing about it for 2-3 hrs lol .

pokerstars Game #32819782735: Tournament #200909028, $1000+$50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (500/1000) - 2009/09/14 1:22:29 ET
Table '200909028 27' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: mahoney3 (158528 in chips)
Seat 2: Chucklo (26607 in chips)
Seat 3: Oakplayer (24359 in chips)
Seat 4: tomicars (129946 in chips)
Seat 5: Sick´nSocial (33674 in chips)
Seat 6: JackAdi (80625 in chips)
Seat 7: vmnielsen (60852 in chips)
Seat 8: anfo500 (85908 in chips)
Seat 9: 011180 (73340 in chips)
mahoney3: posts the ante 125
Chucklo: posts the ante 125
Oakplayer: posts the ante 125
tomicars: posts the ante 125
Sick´nSocial: posts the ante 125
JackAdi: posts the ante 125
vmnielsen: posts the ante 125
anfo500: posts the ante 125
011180: posts the ante 125
Chucklo: posts small blind 500
Oakplayer: posts big blind 1000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to anfo500 [8c 8s]
tomicars: folds
Sick´nSocial: folds
JackAdi: folds
vmnielsen: folds
anfo500: raises 1450 to 2450
011180: raises 4416 to 6866
mahoney3: folds
Chucklo: folds
Oakplayer: folds
anfo500: calls 4416
*** FLOP *** [Kc 2d 4h]
anfo500: checks
011180: bets 8255
anfo500: calls 8255
*** TURN *** [Kc 2d 4h] [Jc]
anfo500: checks
011180: bets 14555
anfo500: calls 14555
*** RIVER *** [Kc 2d 4h Jc] [Qs]
anfo500: checks
011180: bets 43539 and is all-in
anfo500: calls 43539
*** SHOW DOWN ***
011180: shows [6c Ah] (high card Ace)
anfo500: shows [8c 8s] (a pair of Eights)
anfo500 collected 149055 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 149055 | Rake 0
Board [Kc 2d 4h Jc Qs]
Seat 1: mahoney3 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: Chucklo (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Oakplayer (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: tomicars folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Sick´nSocial folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: JackAdi folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: vmnielsen folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: anfo500 showed [8c 8s] and won (149055) with a pair of Eights
Seat 9: 011180 showed [6c Ah] and lost with high card Ace

Pre hand Information: This is a 1000$ 2 day tournament on Pokerstars that is offered exclusively as one of their WCOOP events, which is a huge series of online tournaments that pokerstars holds once a year. Villain in hand is Aaron Kanter, he had been at the table for a quite a few hours now. He had come to the table with about 150,000 in chips and proceded to lose half his stack. Through observing his play I could sense he was growing a bit frustrated. I was playing very aggressively, opening alot of pots, and 3 betting/4 betting a decently high frequency . Through observing kanters play, I noticed that when he had a semi-strong but vulnerable hand in a big pot postflop that he would generally keep the pot small and try to get to showdown,especially when he had a positional advantage ,he wasn't one to bet for sick thin value and I actually felt that he had missed a few standard value bets up to this point. He didn't possess a very online-like game he wasn't extremely aggressive up to this point prreflop with 3 and 4 bets, however he opened alot of pots and seemed comfortable calling alot of raises and playing hands postflop, from what I had gathered he wasnt comfortable getting in huge pots preflop. Our biggest hand was actually a preflop spot where I probably made quite a massive mistake I was 38k effective at 300 600 MP1 opens to 1450 MP2 flats folds to me on the button and I reraise to 4885 with KdQd. From the small blind Kanter reraises my bet to between 11 and 12k, it folds back to me I type in the chat "doubt you call" and Jam 38k with KQs. He goes into the time bank for a minute with TT and reluctantly calls my shove, I flop a King and double through. This was a very big hand in the tournament, and a hand that gave me alot of information about Kanters game. He 4 bet my 3 bet in order to induce a shove from me (I would think) and then went into the tank with a hand that seems like a pretty standard call given the circumstances.

Preflop: Folds to me and I make my standard raise size to 2450 with the 8c8s, from directly behind me Kanter 3 bets to 6886 total the effective stacks to start the hand is ($73340). His timing preflop seemed quick and frustrated his exact sizing also indicates that he took the time to type in his bet size, he is attempting to come off as strong as possible with his play. When people attempt to come off strong in a hand, they usually aren't. I was farely sure that I was well ahead of his 3 betting range, but was sure that he would rarely if ever 5 bet worse hands( wow what an awesome spot to 4 bet air.) He wasnt the type of player to 3 bet weaker broadway hands suited/unsuited JT QT KQ KJ AT AJ were all hands that I was pretty sure he would be flatting with the stacks these deep, I also was farely certain that no small pairs exsisted in his 3 betting range and that he would be likely to set mine them in a spot like this. I was pretty sure that his value/3bet get it in range was no wider then TT+ AK. I elected to flat my 88 out of position. The next important factor is how Kanter views my flat. Given that I had 5 bet KQdd earlier, he probably assumed that I would be very likely to reraise him with at least JJ+ AK and probably alot weaker hands. My flat call probably appears marginal to Kanter.

Flop: We take the flop with 66,000 effective stacks with a potsize of about 16,000 chips so were still fairly deep and working with about 4x the size of the pot there is still alot of room to maneuver. The flop rolls of Kc2d4h, I elect to check to Kanter and he fires out a bet of 8255. This is a good flop for my hand, given that I had him on a pretty wide range preflop and had eliminated hands like KT KJ KQ from his preflop raising range, my hand is pretty strong vs his percieved range of hands. If Kanter missed the flop completely he is going to represent the King a very high percentage of the time, there is only one way to do that, by betting. As I had noted in the information leading up to the hand, I had a strong feeling that Kanter would check back this flop with most of his hands that had good showdown value. Hands that had good showdown value and were in his range were TT-QQ. I had also believed that he would never 3 bet a small pair like 22 or 44 with stacks these deep so I eliminated those hands. So at this point in the hand he is representing a very thin value betting range KK,AK, and AA.Theoretically k4, k2,24 and 26 should also be given some consideration to being a part of his range and heres why: The reason that I don't eliminate those trash hands from his range is because I assumed he had air when I flatted his raise preflop, He may or may not 3 bet those hands with the same frequency that he 3 bets other weak hands that might flop alot better,but given that I had him on air I feel like they should be included in his range. If he is infact 3 betting air in this spot preflop, then the difference between 3 betting K6, 24, a3 isnt that significant. So those hands SHOULD infact be in his range if he did choose to 3 bet nothing in this spot preflop. However, as I said before Kanter did not seem to have a very online-esque base for a game so my assumptions about those hands possibly being in his range are probably way off.. As you can see the MAJORITY of the hands in his range missed the flop completely and given that he usually has nothing at all he will begin by representing something on the flop that he does not have by continuing his aggression and betting. I am far ahead of Kanters range at this point, and every option but calling seems wrong. I elect to call and take a turn.

Turn: The size of the pot has grown significantly since my opening raise we take the turn with 57,000 effective chips and a potsize of about 33,000 chips. I am out of position in a a pretty marginal spot. The turn rolls off and it is the Jc making the board completely rainbow(there are no flush draws to worry about.) Although this seems like a bad card for my exact hand it actually doesnt improve his range of hands at all. I again check to Kanter and he fires a strikingly fast bet of 14555. The size of his bet is very small, less then half the pot, and it appears to me that he is attempting to represent a very strong hand. So how did the Jc improve his hand and what is he representing?I assumed he would check back the flop with JJ and wouldn't 3 bet me preflop with KJ, so unless he had some random J4 or j2 type of hand the Jack does absolutely nothing to improve his hand. So since the turn rarely ever improves the strength of his hand he is still playing based off of the strength he was representing on the flop. I had also noted that Kanter was the kind of player who wouldn't bet for thin value and liked to get to showdown to avoid marginal spots in inflated pots. Based on these assumptions I felt that Kanter would not be continuing the betting on the turn with AK. On the turn he is continuing to represent a very thin range of hands for value and the only ones that I can plausibly keep in his range are KK, AA, and random trashy two pair hands. Given that I am unsure of the frequency that he 3bets his random K-x and J-x hands in the given situation I can probably comfortably remove the majority of those hands from his range and include a few just to be safe. So lets say we include KK ,AA, k4s and J2s. On the turn he is still representing an unrealistically tight range of hands. The next question is if he actually had these strong hands, would he bet the turn for less then half the pot? I had no information to go off that would suggest that he would or wouldn't. However, I would generally think that if he had the top of his range of hands that he wouldn't take a line that appears to be so strong to the common eye. I believe that he would check the turn with his monstrous hands on such a non threatening board because of the fact that I should be theoretically folding all of the hands that he is attempting to get value from. My assumptions could be completely off, but what I do know is that his sizing and timing on the turn led me to believe that he still had ABSOLUTELY nothing and there were very few hands in his range that he would be taking this line for value with. If he did have a hand with great value on the turn I believed he would have taken a different approach to disguise his hand in someway and get me to call off chips with a a much wider range of hands. Therefore because he is TRYING to represent such a strong hand I believe that he actually has the opposite of what he is trying to show me he has. Now what is the best way to procede given my beliefs? Raising the turn protects my hand, but eliminates the value that it has. All i have is a bluff catcher, to get value out of my hand I need to call the turn and allow him to try to win the pot on the river the only way he can and that is by bluffing. I elect to call the turn.

River: the river rolls off the Qs,to be completely honest I was up in the air at this point, even if my reads were spot on I was still in an extremely tough spot, his bet sizing on the river was going to be the biggest factor in to whether or not I call his bet. I check to Kanter and he quickly fires all of his chips in the pot I immediately called without thought. His river sizing combined with the sizing of his turn bet just illustrated that the hands he was taking this line for value with were so few, and his range was heavily weighted towards nothing at all. Nothing he did in this hand added up for me, if he bets the river like 26,000 then im in an extremely diffficult spot. The timing of Kanter's actions throughout the hand provided me with strong feelings that he was trying to represent something he didn't have. I also deducted through his actions, that the majority of hands that beat me would rarely if ever take this line for value. I also never expected to call the river and be beat by any one pair hand unless he was somehow turning it into a bluff. There are very few hands in his range that he could have that are bigger then one pair. The only hand I was truely worried about on the river was KKK or a random 9T. He is representing the top of his range throughout the whole hand, the main factor of the hand was my belief that he wouldn't take a line like this if he were holding the top of his range of hands, his line was just too heavily weighted towards nothing at all, just kind of sick when he turns over 9T here :-).

great post man. ty

Great analysis...I wish I could think tank like that :\

Don't know if its a mistype or a misread on the board, in the HH u have Kc and turn is Jc putting two clubs out, where in the hand analysis you have written that the board is rainbow on the turn. So possibly Kanter can be betting flush draws on the turn. Again I don't know your reads on him or if you have any idea how he plays FDs on the turn, but I think it changes the hand a little bit and perhaps your thoughts about it.

If you knew he doesnt' play his FDs aggro and instead checks to try and keep it small and see if he can get there by the river, then you can take that outta his range. But a hand like AQs that you put into his original range, if he holds AQcc he picks up the straight draw, flush draw, as norman chad says..."even a royal flush draw and we never fold those Lon!" and an over to the board on the turn. So with that hand in his range, still makes it top heavy, but smaller 109cc, and smaller club hands could be in his range. Clearly it doesn't get there and I dont' think he jams the AQcc on the river after he hits the Q, as you said your read was he would just check and get it to showdown.

Kinda jumbled thoughts there too, but I think I would add AQcc to his range as well since its in his preflop range, and flop range since he is trying to rep. the K. Probably add smaller connected clubs into his range, maybe even A4-A7cc, and AQcc. I dunno if this changes any of your thoughts on the river, but I think it changes some of your thought on the turn, maybe still keeps your hand as a bluff catcher going to the river.

Dunno if that helps or not, just some thoughts...nice thought analysis and call on the end, enjoyed it.

Thanks for sharing this EXCELLENT analysis! I'm actually smiling when I'm reading this, because it's clear to me how much more I have to work on my game. You have all these factors guiding you to the right decision. I love it!!

Again, thanks for sharing!

EDIT: Quick question: How fast do you do these thought processes during a hand?

 

Originally Posted by Camz2895

YO ROCK IMMA LET YOU FINISH BUT PHIL IVEY IS THE BEST SOULREADER OF ALL TIME.

looooooooooooool nice

rock you a sick mf. and your my age. PROPS
<input id="gwProxy" type="hidden"><input onclick="jsCall();" id="jsProxy" type="hidden">

 

Originally Posted by Deoxyribo

i just doubt that many players will 3 barrel and spew 70ish BBs with ace hi while nearing the bubble in a 1k event (idk how close the bubble is or if it matters to him but ima assume it does) so i dont see him 3 barrelling air very much

you're pretty off here. i doubt he's worried about cashing at this point.

in general though, unless you're rock3656 you're probably better off 4betting lol

nice post mayne

dam its long got through pre flop and noticed its time for class :( great post though should help a lot of us out

So you thought through all of that and called right away? O rly?
Kinda spewy imo

Can't wait to see all the p5'ers making the most insane hero calls from now on.

Great thread thx for posting this. I wish more good players would make posts like these. It helps me to understand how the really talented players think and analyze things. I woulda prob flatted his 3 bet to set mine (even though I know you aren't getting quite good enough implied odds to do so) and then folded like a bitch to his continuation bet on the flop. I need to learn to accurately figure out people's ranges amongst a ton of other leaks in my game. I have always felt that I am pretty decent at reading people but I definitely didn't see this situation like you did at all. You took into account a lot of information that I would never have even seen. Sick soul read.

Really enjoyed reading this post... reminds of me of why i use this site!

Can't add anything at all, just that i completely agree with ur logic and it's always appreciated when players of your calibre take the time to reveal their thought process to the community.

Gl at the tables.

All the analysis of the player, hand etc. doesn't change the fact that you made a call with 88 and KQJ on the board. Now, in this instance it looks brilliant, however long term it's just a losing call no matter who you are playing or what the circumstance is. This is the type of thinking and the type of post that is going to lose the average player tons of money because now they all of a sudden are going to severely overvalue their hands. Even a wild player who is on tilt could easily have a hand that beats your 8s here, it's a situation where someone could be betting into you trying to push you off your hand when in reality they are ahead. In other words, it's not as simple of a situation as we often face where he either has everything or nothing with his continuous bets. In this situation he could have everything, nothing or somewhere inbetween the two which beats 88! I understand your line of thinking and respect the thought that went into the hand but to me it's all for none in a situation like this.

Perhaps you could expand a little on your thoughts? Just because I'm not coddling this guys nuts like everyone else here? Look it was a great call THIS time, you can't honestly tell me this is a profitable call long term.