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Is J10o better than I thought? This is not a comedy or bad beat post...

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  1. R P L R P L is offline

    Biloxi, MS
    United States

    Posts: 97
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 2nd, 2006 (3/2/2006 11:28pm)

    Live tourney last week, and I've been thinking about this hand for a while. Finally put it in a calculator and now I'm really confused...

    Late in a tourney, blinds were high (1K/2K). I've got 7K left UTG. BB is all for his 2K before cards are dealt. I have A6c and raise all in, trying to shut the button and small blind out - button has about 10K total left. He calls my 5K raise into a 9K pot. He's getting about 2 to 1 odds and has J10o. I thought it was a marginal call by a marginal player with the most overrated hand ever, J10o. I figured at worst I was a slight favorite to win the hand. He of course hits a 10 to win the pot and I finish on the bubble at 8th.

    After I looked the odds up at two dimes, this was the output:

    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    Ac 6c 478685 34.92 888458 64.82 3611 0.26 0.350
    5d 4h 390980 28.52 976163 71.21 3611 0.26 0.286
    Js Td 497478 36.29 869665 63.44 3611 0.26 0.364

    A6c is NOT a favorite to win! I'm 57/43 to win HU against J10, but throw in 45o and J10 becomes the favorite?!?!

    I really don't understand why. 45 takes away straight opportunities? WTF? Is J10 really more powerful than I thought?

    Help please...

    Randy
  2. Jennifear Jennifear is offline

    Niagara Falls, NY
    United States

    Posts: 10,222
    Joined: Nov 05

    Mar 2nd, 2006 (3/2/2006 11:57pm) in reply to R P L

    here's the correct answer...

    45 hurts your 6 because of st8 opportunities lost by the 6.

    45 helps j10 because it adds str8 possibilities to j10 due to the other 2 missing cards in the deck.

    Simply put, the 45 hurts the A6 more than the J10.

    This is the same reason that 56s is the best hand to play against AA, other than the other two aces.

    Yes, J10 is more powerful than you thought, but only three-handed or more.
  3. threeven threeven is offline

    Tucson, AZ
    United States

    Posts: 18,612
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 3rd, 2006 (3/3/2006 12:09am) in reply to R P L

    Against 5 4 and J T you lose a lot of straight possibilities, for both your cards. A6 isn't a huge favorite against JT anyway, and if you pair the 6, the 45 gets at least 3 to a straight.
    2
  4. R P L R P L is offline

    Biloxi, MS
    United States

    Posts: 97
    Joined: Feb 06

    Mar 3rd, 2006 (3/3/2006 12:30am) in reply to threeven

    Yeah, I see both your points - I just had the math in my head wrong. When I'd thought about a hand like A6s not being a favorite against several opponents, I thought that meant that it wasn't a winner more than 50% of the time anymore. I didn't realize (or pay attention to) that it made it not even lead the win % - even if by a little.

    I also looked up 88 vs A10 and 54 - and A10 is the favorite 3 handed. I've been playing for years and never had that click in my head before...

    Randy
    Thread Starter
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