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KK on official bubble of sattie, AUTOMUCK?

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  1. TheSlicKKid2 TheSlicKKid2 is offline

    Boynton Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 217
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 1:57am)

    Okay so i have read the couple articles about satellite play, and have always felt comfortable folding JJ, QQ KK, even AA real deep in sattie when im pretty sure inless a miracle happens, that I will get my seat.. OKay so im playing the 500fpp mtt, to the sunday mill, top 9 get seat, were down to 10. I have 12k, blinds are 1500/3000, obv the big stack whos been bullying, raises it up to 9k, im right behind him, now if i didnt already know that there were 4 lower stacks, going to be posted all in before i would be all in, I didnt hesitate to muck them in a heartbeat.. I figure if one of the 4 dont lose there all in blind hands, then it wasent meant to be with the kings anyway. HH is below, Just wanted to see exactly how many people agree with me, The shortty stacks at other table was 9600, 8500,and 10500(about to be bb next hand) Please post opinions, Im sure most will agree, but im sure some will disagree.. HOW MANY AGREE ITS AN AUTOFOLD UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES?

    For the record the 3rd player posted all in, lost and i won my seat 4 mins after folding this KK.

    pokerstars Game #5489513041: Tournament #27316410, 500FPP Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2006/07/08 - 01:30:58 (ET)
    Table '27316410 23' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
    Seat 3: RSK1 (53348 in chips)
    Seat 5: thick2 (10114 in chips)
    Seat 6: NaplesMS (59838 in chips)
    Seat 7: TheSlicKKid2 (12393 in chips)
    Seat 9: fat&50 (13151 in chips)
    RSK1: posts the ante 150
    thick2: posts the ante 150
    NaplesMS: posts the ante 150
    TheSlicKKid2: posts the ante 150
    fat&50: posts the ante 150
    RSK1: posts small blind 1500
    thick2: posts big blind 3000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to TheSlicKKid2 [Kd Kh]
    NaplesMS: raises 6000 to 9000
    TheSlicKKid2: folds
    fat&50: folds
    RSK1: folds
    thick2: folds
    NaplesMS collected 8250 from pot
    NaplesMS: shows [9d 9h] (a pair of Nines)
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot 8250 | Rake 0
    Seat 3: RSK1 (small blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 5: thick2 (big blind) folded before Flop
    Seat 6: NaplesMS collected (8250)
    Seat 7: TheSlicKKid2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 9: fat&50 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

    Followed up with,
    Dealer: TheSlicKKid2 wins the tournament - congratulations!
     
  2. Octan3_ipwnsippin Octan3_ipwnsippin is offline

    Winnipeg
    Canada

    Posts: 6,263
    Joined: Feb 06

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 2:01am) in reply to TheSlicKKid2

    ewwwwww
  3. isuck123 isuck123 is offline

    Clearwater Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 4,003
    Joined: May 05

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 2:02am) in reply to TheSlicKKid2

    Before answering, i need to see what the chips on the other table are
    many people will tell you 'instafold' but if you were in 7-10th place, which it looks like you were, i PERSONALLY push all in here and take my chances with KK.
    I need to win a couple pots ANYWAY, and in this case you are likely to MORE then double up with KK. only AA has you dominated, and against MOST hands you face you are OVER 80% to win, and 67-70% to win vs his Ax holdings. He obv calls no matter what he has, you win and you have 30k..and THEN can just click 'sitting out' if you wished and you skate in......

    again, some may disagree (many may) but PERSONALLY that is what i do there.
     
  4. yellowsub yellowsub is offline dive dive dive

    Athens, GA
    United States

    Posts: 1,239
    Joined: Dec 05

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 2:04am) in reply to isuck123

    isuck is 100% right here, if there is a <span>CHANCE </span>you could bubble out, then u must call here, KK is obv way in front of utg's range, and the double up will let you coast.
     
  5. TheSlicKKid2 TheSlicKKid2 is offline

    Boynton Beach, FL
    United States

    Posts: 217
    Joined: Jun 06

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 2:10am) in reply to yellowsub

    Ya i was thinking right away that with the blinds so high that the shorttys could very well all win there all ins, i did the math and 4 people would be all in before i was forced all in by the blinds, So i figured 1 or 2 people going up against the blind all in, 4 different times, that my chances were better to wait for that, rather then get the chips in as a 4 to 1 favorite say. This is just a way I have alwayd played sats and been pretty sucessfull. However if i was 7-10th like isuck said, I would have been all in knowing im the favorite like 98% of time, but since i was 6th, maybe even 5th, with the 4 players gaurenteed posted all in before me, I figured that was my best shot, and fortunally it worked out for me.

    weeeee
     
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  6. DoGGz DoGGz is offline

    San Lucas
    Mexico

    Posts: 736
    Joined: Jan 06

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 3:04am) in reply to TheSlicKKid2

    ok, KK is at best 80% to win here. If you think you have a better chance of advancing higher then 80%, then fold.

    It sounds like this is an easy fold. NH
    338 
  7. Adam Adam is online now Emperor

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 12,629
    Joined: Dec 04

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 4:01am) in reply to isuck123

    There's certainly a mathematical answer to this. The questions we need answered are:

    1) What % are you to win this hand against the big stack's range?

    2) What is your % of winning the seat if you WIN the hand?

    3) What is your % chance of winning if you muck this hand?

    If 1 * 2 < 3, it's a fold.

    My gut says that at least 80% of the time here, you're winning the seat after mucking, but I'd like to see the math, based on the big stack's range, and I'm too tired to figure it out right now.
     
  8. Adam Adam is online now Emperor

    Atlanta, GA
    United States

    Posts: 12,629
    Joined: Dec 04

    Jul 8th, 2006 (7/8/2006 4:12am) in reply to Adam

    I just used the card calculator for KK vs. a random hand, and it puts KK as ~82% to win. If the big stack is raising every hand, then those are your odds. Assuming the answer to number 2 is a very high % (~98%), the product of the two %'s is almost exactly 80%. So it comes down to how often you win if you muck. I am believing now it's a fold, but it's close. If the big stack is only raising some of his or her hands, I think it's a definite fold.
     
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