<span>its down to 16 players in the 75k on full tilt on Sunday when this hand comes up</span>

<table><tbody><tr><td>Seat 1: WaterbedKev4 ($43,290 in chips) - </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 2: dennismac718 ($60,981 in chips) </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 3: OneUponAStar ($95,760 in chips) </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 4: ChipSteela ($152,872 in chips) </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 6: AceWPT ($95,973 in chips) </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 7: USCswimmer ($33,052 in chips) </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 8: ANIMAL5050 ($230,915 in chips) - </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 9: yellowhat ($52,828 in chips) - </td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>PRE-FLOP: </td></tr><tr><td>yellowhat posts small blind $1200</td></tr><tr><td>WaterbedKev4 posts big blind $2400</td></tr><tr><td>Dealt To: ANIMAL5050</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>ANTE WaterbedKev4 ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE dennismac718 ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE OneUponAStar ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE ChipSteela ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE AceWPT ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE USCswimmer ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE ANIMAL5050 ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>ANTE yellowhat ($300)</td></tr><tr><td>FOLD dennismac718</td></tr><tr><td>FOLD OneUponAStar</td></tr><tr><td>RAISE ChipSteela ($5995)</td></tr><tr><td>FOLD AceWPT</td></tr><tr><td>FOLD USCswimmer</td></tr><tr><td>CALL ANIMAL5050 ($5995) (Pot Odds: 2.00:1)</td></tr><tr><td>FOLD yellowhat</td></tr><tr><td>CALL WaterbedKev4 ($3595)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>FLOP: </td></tr><tr><td>Pot: $21585 </td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>CHECK WaterbedKev4</td></tr><tr><td>BET ChipSteela ($13450)</td></tr><tr><td>CALL ANIMAL5050 ($13450) (Pot Odds: 2.60:1)</td></tr><tr><td>FOLD WaterbedKev4</td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>TURN: </td></tr><tr><td>Pot: $48485 </td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>BET ChipSteela ($25485)</td></tr><tr><td>RAISE ANIMAL5050 ($55555)</td></tr><tr><td>RAISE ChipSteela ($85625)</td></tr><tr><td>RAISE ANIMAL5050 ($211170) - All in</td></tr><tr><td>CALL ChipSteela ($47502) - All in</td></tr><tr><td>UNCALLED ANIMAL5050 ($78043)</td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>RIVER: </td></tr><tr><td>Pot: $314739 </td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>SHOWDOWN:</td></tr><tr><td>ANIMAL5050:</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>ChipSteela:</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>ANIMAL5050 collected $314739 from main pot with three of a kind, Queens</td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td colspan="100"></td></tr><tr><td>SUMMARY:</td></tr><tr><td>Total pot: $314739</td></tr><tr><td>Rake: $0</td></tr><tr><td>Final Board:</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 1: WaterbedKev4 big blind folded on the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($ -6295.00)</td></tr><tr><td>Seat 2: dennismac718 folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($ -300.00)</td></tr><tr><td>Seat 3: OneUponAStar folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($ -300.00)</td></tr><tr><td>Seat 4: ChipSteela showed [Ad Ah] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens - Net Gain/Loss: ($-152872.00)</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 6: AceWPT folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($ -300.00)</td></tr><tr><td>Seat 7: USCswimmer folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($ -300.00)</td></tr><tr><td>Seat 8: ANIMAL5050 button showed [Kd Qh] and won 314,739 with three of a kind, Queens - Net Gain/Loss: ($161867.00)</td></tr><tr><td> </td></tr><tr><td>Seat 9: yellowhat small blind folded before the Flop - Net Gain/Loss: ($ -1500.00)

<span>Here is my analysis:
</span>
-the BB was a poor player who never 3 bet so preflop i expect him to have a wide enough range to make calling with KQ a better option than raising or folding.

-the flop call seems pretty standard.
pot on flop =48485 + 55555+55555 = 159595
77572 shoved over top + 159595 = 237167

putting in 77572 to win 314739
77575/314739 = .246% (i need to be 24.6%)

if he has QQ+, 66-55, 22, AdKd, AsKs, AQs, AdJd, AsJs, AdTd, AsTs, KQs, KdJd, KsJs, KdTd, KsTs, AQo, KQo i am <span>23.8%</span>
****(also to consider here is that I have every conceivable hand that beats me however only the best A and K high flush draws it is possible that he shows up with a hand like A9d or JTss, etc etc)****

if he has QQ+, AdKd, AsKs, AQs, AdJd, AsJs, AdTd, AsTs, KQs, KdJd, KsJs, KdTd, KsTs, AQo, KQo i am <span>30.7%</span>

if he has QQ+, 66-55, 22, AdKd, AsKs, AQs, AdJd, AsJs, AdTd, AsTs, KQs, KdJd, KsJs, KdTd, KsTs, QJs, AQo, KQo, QJo i am <span>34.9%</span>

if he has AdKd, AsKs, AdJd, AsJs, AdTd, AsTs, KdJd, KsJs, KdTd, KsTs i am <span>75.3%</span>

reasons for me to raise turn (there is 74k in the middle he has 108k behind)

A) if hes check raising turn strong even a small % then alot of his range for betting is draws with 10.5 outs that i dont expect him to bluff river with but i do want to protect against
B) i rep a weaker hand then i have such as 78dd, a float, and take KQ and AQ out of my range since a % of the time since he expects me to call with those

if he has AA, KK, QQ, 66, 55, 22, AQ, KQ reasons for him to chk R turn,

A) good spot for me to float flop dry board (gets an extra bet out of me)
B) hes going to fold out TT down by betting (JJ i almost always 3 bet pf)
C) hes giving me the right odds with a flush draw
flush draw is 4-1 i am getting 3-1 on turn with 4.3x left in his stack)
D) if turn does go check check he may be able to get value from TT down on river
E) ive been very aggressive and he likely expects me to bet a Q

if he has A or K high flush draw reasons for him to bet turn

A) gets me to fold TT down
B) hes still getting value from worse flush draws
C) builds a pot for river with 12 outs if over is good and i have a Q (its probably about 10.5 because of AQ and KQ in my range)
D) builds a pot that he can bluff shove river with easily if he doesnt expect me to slowplay flop and turn

reasons for him to make it 85k over my 55k

A) if he has A or K high flush draw he gets me to call or shove worse flush draws
B) if he has AA, KK, QQ, AQ, 66, 55 he gets me to sometimes shove a Q
C) if he has a draw he can get me to fold up to AQ here because he looks so strong

Even if i am a couple % behind his range it still makes it ok to get it in because of the stack sizes I will be left with:

if i get it in and lose i have 78k left (32bbs)
if i R to 55k then fold to his RR i have 156k left (65bbs)
if i get it in and win i have 393k (164bbs)

So pretty much my thought process was I was eliminating some of the stronger hands from his range and putting him more on draws with the combined fact that I expect him to check raise strong on turn and also just shove over my 55k R with his made hands.

Mistakes that I think i made:

A) i should have called turn and made a decision on river that includes folding a decent amount
B) i gave him credit for thinking that I would interpret a min RR to 85k as strength
C) my raise to 55k was not optimal, i wanted it to look bluffy but in his eyes it committed me and it put me in a difficult spot after he came over the top)

Let me know what you think I did wrong and should have done instead.

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