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  1. Call or Fold?

    I get stuck with this hand a bit, especially when the stacks get to be shovy. Never quite sure at which stack sizes a call is good. Understand I am often up against an ace and looking at pokerstove it looks like I'm flipping at best.

    Thoughts?

    pokerstars Hand #75882916641: Tournament #560010003, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XX (2000/4000) - 2012/02/20 9:22:15 AEST [2012/02/19 17:22:15 ET]
    Table '560010003 2922' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
    Seat 1: Maksimovich7 (87379 in chips)
    Seat 2: B.J1289 (25362 in chips)
    Seat 3: nassander (154196 in chips)
    Seat 4: yea321 (40492 in chips)
    Seat 5: st.anger6669 (76421 in chips)
    Seat 6: soluckyl^.^l (68880 in chips)
    Seat 7: EFENDI (26080 in chips)
    Seat 8: PeruPRO (96278 in chips)
    Seat 9: Mastermixus (71840 in chips)
    Maksimovich7: posts the ante 400
    B.J1289: posts the ante 400
    nassander: posts the ante 400
    yea321: posts the ante 400
    st.anger6669: posts the ante 400
    soluckyl^.^l: posts the ante 400
    EFENDI: posts the ante 400
    PeruPRO: posts the ante 400
    Mastermixus: posts the ante 400
    B.J1289: posts small blind 2000
    nassander: posts big blind 4000
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to nassander [Kc Qc]
    yea321: raises 36092 to 40092 and is all-in
    st.anger6669: folds
    soluckyl^.^l: folds
    EFENDI: folds
    PeruPRO: folds
    Mastermixus: folds
    Maksimovich7: folds
    B.J1289: folds
    nassander ???
    Add nassander to Rail
  2. call, its only 9bb and theres money in the middle already. You could be miles ahead, unless he's a nit and if you win you're set to win tournament.
    Add djdoodoo to Rail
  3. Forgot to mention it is the Sunday Storm so we are still far away from the final table. We are at about 1500 left.

    Thanks :)
    Thread StarterAdd nassander to Rail
  4. The villain is utg here when he is shoving his stack so I like a fold. If he was in mp or lp I would most likely call but him being utg his range is going to be stronger then if he was in mp or lp.
     
    Add kevmode to Rail
  5. This is a clear fold to me. You're hoping to what race with a pair for 1/3 your stack?
    Add realpokerpro to Rail
  6.  
    Originally Posted by realpokerpro View Post

    This is a clear fold to me. You're hoping to what race with a pair for 1/3 your stack?


    people shove more than aces or pairs

    if the guy is a good winning player i would call, but most of the time i fold as most peoples utg shoving range is pretty tight
     1
    Add mcandrews3rd to Rail
  7. reg/random? player read - tight/loose? winning/losing player? hud info?

    run the numbers in stove to differing ranges and see what hands have enough equity to call.

    how did this player get to this stack? did he just lose a hand? nitting sweaters?

    alot depends on player read/capability.
     
    Raise
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  8. I'd call. There are only 5 hands in the deck that are crushing you, his m is like 4 and you have nobody left to act behind you.
     
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  9. are you a gambler? how long since you played a hand? how long since he played a hand?
    im a gambler - i call
     
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  10. I looked up yea321 under OPR and he looks like a solid player in the smaller buy-in events. I could see JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, AJ, A10s, A9s, in his range here which your 40-50% ish not terrible but I'm not too happy. Maybe........... KJ, K10s which your dominating. There is a good chance your dominated too. Pretty easy fold. You got 4400 invested, not even 3% of your stack and it costs another 36000? You got enough behind to relax for now.
    Edited By: FrankieV Feb 21st, 2012 at 03:49 PM
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  11. Theres a good chance you're not dominated. Only hands that have preflop domination are ak, aa, kk, (qq). Definately call especially if he's a reg. If he's a nit you can find a fold. If he's a fish I'm probably just calling.
    Raise
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  12. yeah I'd like a fold too, UTG his range is better than KQs more times than not imo, and you have alot of chips to play with to steal and re-steal which I think gives you alot of room to find better spots.
    Raise
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  13. Me thinks calling is best ... There's antes so effectively he's shoving less than 9bbs. He could have a variety of suited connectors and worse Ks. With 1500 people left in the Storm with your stack, I don't think this is a spot you should be passing on.
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  14. I have ran this this exact spot many times and called more ofter than not because they should be jamming A5s+, A8o+, K10s+, any pair, and many sooted connectors plus here on the tight end. With that in mind though, from utg they seem to have the a loose ace or A10+ more often than not. I stopped calling in this spot especially if I lose and it takes my stack below 30 blinds. I agree with kevmode that it is a must call if they are jamming from mid to late pos. Agaisnt a good reg it a call all day though. GL at the tables.
     
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  15. I can't imagine folding here to a winning player. Maybe if villain had been super nit we could find a fold. Idk, anyone with half a brain is shoving worse kings and queens and some suited connectors.
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  16. Really? People fold here? I happily snap call. The fact that he's utg adds to the snap because he's about to have to pay blinds.
    Add paidchex to Rail
  17. It's close for sure. If it's a field I think I'm a big favorite in verse the average player, I fold. If it's a tougher field I'm probably taking a spot like this. I suggest downloading pokerstove and plugging in some ranges and seeing exactly what they need to be shoving for it to be a call.
     2
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  18. Given me a lot to think about thanks.

    I called and he rolled over A5 and he took it down with ace high.

    I think in that spot again I am folding because:

    - I am in no way committed to the hand in terms of chips
    - Losing 1/3 of my stack is going to have a much worse impact than the positives of gaining 1/3 since I will no longer be the clear chip leader at the table, and will be roughly equal with a couple of other players. I think I need to stay ahead to get deep in these large mtts
    - I think if it was about 20K a call would be ok
    - As said by others his range utg screams Ax or better, why risk my edge of chip leader for a possible flip - not worth the gamble

    Poker stove against his hand:
    44.5% KcQc
    55.5% Ac5d

    Pokerstove against his open shoving range:
    46% KcQc
    54% 22+, A8s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, ATo+
    Raise
    Thread StarterAdd nassander to Rail
  19.  
    Originally Posted by nassander View Post

    Given me a lot to think about thanks.

    I called and he rolled over A5 and he took it down with ace high.

    I think in that spot again I am folding because:

    - I am in no way committed to the hand in terms of chips
    - Losing 1/3 of my stack is going to have a much worse impact than the positives of gaining 1/3 since I will no longer be the clear chip leader at the table, and will be roughly equal with a couple of other players. I think I need to stay ahead to get deep in these large mtts
    - I think if it was about 20K a call would be ok
    - As said by others his range utg screams Ax or better, why risk my edge of chip leader for a possible flip - not worth the gamble

    Poker stove against his hand:
    44.5% KcQc
    55.5% Ac5d

    Pokerstove against his open shoving range:
    46% KcQc
    54% 22+, A8s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, ATo+

    huh? he had A5o and u think his range is A8s+?? am i missing something?

    forgot to say: i fold there since players in such a tourney simply dont know how wide they actually should shove with that stack. also because of my edge, but the main reason is the first one.
    Edited By: RedIceRap Feb 25th, 2012 at 06:52 AM
     1
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  20.  
    Originally Posted by RedIceRap View Post

    huh? he had A5o and u think his range is A8s+?? am i missing something?

    forgot to say: i fold there since players in such a tourney simply dont know how wide they actually should shove with that stack. also because of my edge, but the main reason is the first one.

    That....is a good point.

    Red Ice what is the minimum hand you would call with in that spot?
    Edited By: bcassidy Feb 25th, 2012 at 07:08 AM
     
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  21. i think smth like 66+, ATo+ and A9s+. if he shoves A5o utg for 10bb (which is too wide/bad) i dont think he was only sitting around the last few orbits. so if he was active im prolly calling with that range.
     1
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  22.  
    Originally Posted by RedIceRap View Post

    huh? he had A5o and u think his range is A8s+?? am i missing something?

    forgot to say: i fold there since players in such a tourney simply dont know how wide they actually should shove with that stack. also because of my edge, but the main reason is the first one.

    I just used Tony G's open shoving range at 10BBs from UTG. When in the hand I didn't know what those ranges were, but I did consider that I was at least facing an Ace, but I have done some research and here I am saying that even against what he should be shoving, I am not a favorite.

    Like you say, it's more probable that his hand is gonna be even stronger.

    I think your calling range makes sense to me too.
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    Thread StarterAdd nassander to Rail
  23. i actually think your a favourite against his shoving range with that stack and although he's under gun like the other guy said IMO that makes him more likely to shove sometimes cos he's just about to lose 6000 chips by going through the blinds. In pokerstove i make you a 51% favourite. Seeing that he pushed with A5o he would most likely push any ace there so as a 51% favourite in the hand and with decent 1.38/1 pot odds and a nice hand yourself and a good chance to get to 200k in chips i think you should call. Also if you lose you only drop to 110,000 which means your only risking 26% of your chips, pretty nice with KQsuited. I understand what your saying about having an edge over the table but you will still keep that edge even if you lose with your poker skill and chip lead.
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  24.  
    Originally Posted by Grobo82 View Post

    i actually think your a favourite against his shoving range with that stack and although he's under gun like the other guy said IMO that makes him more likely to shove sometimes cos he's just about to lose 6000 chips by going through the blinds. In pokerstove i make you a 51% favourite. Seeing that he pushed with A5o he would most likely push any ace there so as a 51% favourite in the hand and with decent 1.38/1 pot odds and a nice hand yourself and a good chance to get to 200k in chips i think you should call. Also if you lose you only drop to 110,000 which means your only risking 26% of your chips, pretty nice with KQsuited. I understand what your saying about having an edge over the table but you will still keep that edge even if you lose with your poker skill and chip lead.

    please give us the range u think he's shoving and KQ is ahead of

    Board:
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 53.437% 51.83% 01.61% 1114683864 34550326.00 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, A2o+, KQo }
    Hand 1: 46.563% 44.96% 01.61% 966869308 34550326.00 { KQs }

    Every Ace, ever Pocket, every suited connector and the three top suited one gappers are in this range. this range is much wider than his shoving range would ever be! and KQs still only has 46.5%! it's a clear fold!
    Edited By: RedIceRap Feb 25th, 2012 at 07:39 PM
     1
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  25. It's an easy easy easy not even close fold.

    Alotta over analyzing going on here.

    Learn the Gap Concept. And at this stage in the tourney it's not worth the risk by calling that hand. You can win the same amount by stealing the blinds a few times.

    And you have king high....don't talk yourself into a call here, pick your spots and control the action.

    This is a tournament and this marginal situation will not win the tournament for you
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  26. nice explanation grobo y agree with you.
    i think if he is a reg he knows the fist in vigorish concept, and he needs to make a move rather sooner than later, here he is utg so he has just one hand to get to the blinds and lose a good percentaje of his stack, so a call here w 1.38 to 1 its just good, i really think you are a slight favourite here, even if you think you are a 45% underdog i think this is a call
     
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