do you prefer to flat call or shove here and why (43 left; cant remember where im at in relation to field)...

Full Tilt Poker Game #5429105447: $6,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (40575178), Table 52 - 1500/3000 Ante 400 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:19:49 ET - 2008/02/28
Seat 1: bencoh7 (105,014)
<span>Seat 3: suitedaces1012 (59,940)</span>
Seat 4: jt705 (58,642)
Seat 5: Phil de fer (143,724)
<span>Seat 6: BfMyers (63,383)</span>
Seat 7: LluckyLlama (12,088)
Seat 8: pattimac (24,583)
Seat 9: HelloDeli (72,838)
bencoh7 antes 400
suitedaces1012 antes 400
jt705 antes 400
Phil de fer antes 400
BfMyers antes 400
LluckyLlama antes 400
pattimac antes 400
HelloDeli antes 400
<span>jt705 posts the small blind of 1,500</span>
<span>Phil de fer posts the big blind of 3,000</span>
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to suitedaces1012 [Jc Jh]
BfMyers has 15 seconds left to act
<span>BfMyers raises to 10,000</span>
LluckyLlama folds
JPH57 sits down
JPH57 adds 26,480
pattimac folds
HelloDeli folds
bencoh7 folds
<span>suitedaces1012.....</span>

tough spot id like to know to

i do like the reraise to 38k or somewhere around there to give the image of aces or kings....but at this point in the tournament i could use a double up to improve my chances of final tabling and a reraise might ruin my chances of racing vs ak (which i actually did not mind as i wanted to take a small advantage if there to double up) or as well someone maybe even calling light with 99 or 1010 as the allin sort of looks like ak......this thought process is what actually has caused me to post as i did not know if it would be optimal to reraise here and call shove obv which might actually force a laydown more than the allin?...do you think the pot is better here uncontested (assuming he doesnt have qq-aa and folds) or is this a good oppurtunity to double up or bust considering my stack and size of field left...playable stack i get if i win???

sorry for all the rambles...i type as i think ha

reraise with intention to go allin. You can't flat with over 15% of your stack, which will put 27k into the middle. if a Q flops and he has AK, yyou dont know where you are at IMO. With 43 left, you can't wait around for much better. If he has QQ+, gg, but that happens a small % of the time that you can't be too scared of it. He can have anything from 66-TT, including AK/AQ, so i would put in a strong reraise of at least half or more of your stack to show strength, and call a shove

Here's what happens: You shove, he calls with AQs or AK, and of course you lose cause as we all know, Jacks suck. GGman, UL

38k optimal, hopefully they fold, if not AKQ will hit and you move on to next tourney. JJ mojaority of the time will not hold.

awwwwww eeen

ok heres the results...obv brutal river to keep me from 5th in chips....i wanna know if i played it the most profitable way is this issue

*more questions and discussion on reason i posted this below results

Full Tilt Poker Game #5429105447: $6,000 Guarantee (Rebuy) (40575178), Table 52 - 1500/3000 Ante 400 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:19:49 ET - 2008/02/28
Seat 1: bencoh7 (105,014)
Seat 3: suitedaces1012 (59,940)
Seat 4: jt705 (58,642)
Seat 5: Phil de fer (143,724)
Seat 6: BfMyers (63,383)
Seat 7: LluckyLlama (12,088)
Seat 8: pattimac (24,583)
Seat 9: HelloDeli (72,838)
bencoh7 antes 400
suitedaces1012 antes 400
jt705 antes 400
Phil de fer antes 400
BfMyers antes 400
LluckyLlama antes 400
pattimac antes 400
HelloDeli antes 400
jt705 posts the small blind of 1,500
Phil de fer posts the big blind of 3,000
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to suitedaces1012 [Jc Jh]
BfMyers has 15 seconds left to act
BfMyers raises to 10,000
LluckyLlama folds
JPH57 sits down
JPH57 adds 26,480
pattimac folds
HelloDeli folds
bencoh7 folds
suitedaces1012 raises to 59,540, and is all in
jt705 folds
Phil de fer folds
BfMyers has 15 seconds left to act
BfMyers has requested TIME
BfMyers calls 49,540
suitedaces1012 shows [Jc Jh]
BfMyers shows [As Kd]
*** FLOP *** [Jd Ts 2c]
*** TURN *** [Jd Ts 2c] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [Jd Ts 2c 6c] [Qs]
suitedaces1012 shows three of a kind, Jacks
BfMyers shows a straight, Ace high
BfMyers wins the pot (126,780) with a straight, Ace high
suitedaces1012 stands up
The blinds are now 2,000/4,000 with an ante of 500
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 126,780 | Rake 0
Board: [Jd Ts 2c 6c Qs]
Seat 1: bencoh7 folded before the Flop
Seat 3: suitedaces1012 (button) showed [Jc Jh] and lost with three of a kind, Jacks
Seat 4: jt705 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: Phil de fer (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: BfMyers showed [As Kd] and won (126,780) with a straight, Ace high
Seat 7: LluckyLlama folded before the Flop
Seat 8: pattimac folded before the Flop
Seat 9: HelloDeli folded before the Flop

.....now...................what i wanna know is which is the most profitable play in the long run

A.) If i would have flat called there would have been around 28000 in the pot....i would see him firing out a c-bet around 15 on the flop...i would have played it prolly just by flat calling then i see him checking 4th and i fire bet and he folds (again this is just my line of thinking and in no ways accurate)...thus if i played it this way i would have made another 15k give or take assuming he c-bets than if i shoved and he folded

B.) I shove, im in a race to double up and give me plenty more chips to work with this late in the tournament.....im a small favorite and in the long run this shove is better than just callin

the question with this play is if he folds instead of calling am i getting the most value out of my hand as jacks can easily lose there value on the flops.....thus do i want a fold and to win the pot uncontested

C.) i flat call....board comes with 1 or 2 overs and i have no idea where im at.....i dont really know what percentage of the time this would happen over a large sample size thus im unsure about this situation

...thus this hand has basically just caused me to contemplate what is the most profitable play here in the long run....ive favored shoving as i can win the pot uncontested and if he calls im a small favorite to double up

appreciate all the responses and would like to hear more thoughts on the possible lines i can take here

I cant really see a flat call here unless the player has been EXTREMELY tight @ the table. Even there I dont know about just a call. If it was me I would of raised about half my stack and if he pushes in then so be it...

"38k optimal, hopefully they fold" Why??? This is the problem with the thought process of many mtt players.. You are holding the 4th best hand in poker and you are hoping the raiser folds?? Betting is for value, unless you are bluffing, and JJ is not a bluffing hand.

JJ majority of time will not hold?? Against what? You are slight favorite of AK and AQ and it will hold a MAJORITY OF THE TIME..If he has AA or KK or QQ then so be it. This guy's range has to be larger than that unless he has been a complete nit.

You have an M of 15 here, you don't need to be flipping. And no you don't fold to an obv c-bet. Any flop with just one over is getting reshoved there IMO. But if the flop comes AK4, you can definitely get away and stiill have a playable stack.

Flipping here, given your position in the hand, your read on your opponent and your stack size is terrible and will in no way maximize your results.

Regardless 15% of your stack is nothing here unless you are terrible post-flop, which most MTT players probably are.

wow, a flat call is HORRRRRRRENDOUS there. you have 60k at 1500/3k...he opens to 10k...you're really gonna call off 17% of your stack and then re-evaluate?

he opens to 10k from utg...this is simply evalute your hand vs his range, and do the action that's most +ev. you kind of need some sort of read on how he's been playing, like total nit or not...he opens to 3.3BB's utg...he usuallllly doen'st have AA or KK, but i'll include that anyway (your average player in the 3r is opening to 3BB's MAX with those hands cause they want value and they don't want to scare people out of the pot, especially utg...so with that being said, i think he shows up with AK/AQ and 99-QQ a LOT of the time here...but i'll include AA/KK too):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.184% 49.22% 00.96% 318570540 6243024.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 49.816% 48.85% 00.96% 316194324 6243024.00 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }

it's a shove vs that pretty tight range...and if you take out AA and KK, it's def a shove:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.601% 56.46% 01.14% 295827540 5983266.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 42.399% 41.26% 01.14% 216170952 5983266.00 { QQ-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

therefore...shove, easily...get mad when you lose a race

let's face it...ther'es 40 people to go and you barely have 20BB's...you need to chip up

the difference in opininion with your reply i guess i have to bring up is i wasnt sure he was a tight player as i had only been at the table 2 orbits max that ican remember....and i saw it as not a "flip at best" as i could see him opening like that with 99-qq and aq-ak though i really didnt consdider aq an option with his raise amt...thus i didnt see it as necessarily a flip at best as i could have 99-1010 dominated..thus if i called and all unders came a hand like 99 and 1010 will get it all in and i would have him beat here where as if i shove i see most players folding 99-1010 here with the amount of fold equity and my stack vs his stack ratio

and i also agree with the poster that ruled out aa-kk.....obviously i cannot 100 percent rule it out but i did not see him having aa or kk here as he raised OVER 3x the big blind which is hardly a case you will find utg especially in a 3r where most players will be drooling over seeing a hand like this and want plenty of action...

shove, repping AKs, get called by tens, you run good

i feel i have fold equity here.....i think hes able to fold ak or any pair 99-jj if he so decides assuming hes not throwing away qq-aa for sure

i think theres no way you can say i have zero fold equity though??