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Late tourny decisions with M between 6 and 10

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  1. lampshade9909 lampshade9909 is offline

    Syracuse, NY
    United States

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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 2:55pm)

    Im citing a specific example then going on to ask a more general question related to having an M between 6 and 10

    Merge network, Nighly $33 tourny, 15 minute levels, roughly 250-300 players, approaching money bubble.

    Blinds are 800 400 with a little over 600 in total antees
    Average Stack about 25k chips (~14M)
    My stack (cutoff position) about 18k chips (~10M)
    Small Blind 34k chips (~19M)
    Blinds going up in about 1 minute

    Small blinds HM2 stats that I remember are as follows.* VP:20%, PFR: 10%, 3bet: 10% over about 50 hands.* So not* lose, but not a complete nit either.* But a fairly small sample size of hands so it's hard to judge.

    Other notes:* Most pots at this table have been opened by min raises, i have always opened my pots by raising it up to the size of the starting pot.* I've stolen from late position a few times and this player has yet to 3bet me, but he has 3bet other players 5 times in 50 hands.

    Action:* Folds to me in the cutoff with AQo.* I raise to the size of the starting pot, approx 1800 chips.* Small blinds insta-3bets to approx 5000.* By insta-3bets, I mean he 3bet within about 2 or 3 seconds of it being his turn.*

    My first question here is, is this a must fold against this type of opponent?* Or is this a 4betshove?* Also note that if I fold here, my M will be about 9 and the blinds will jump up almost immediately so my M will probably be about 7 after i fold.

    Second question, in this specific case my M is about 10.* If in this case my M was an 8, would I be obligated to 4bet allin to this raise?* And if my M was 6, would I be obligated to 4bet all in to this raise?

    Thanks in advance.
    Edited By: lampshade9909 Jan 4th, 2012 at 09:30 PM
    Reason: Additional information
  2. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 7:39pm) in reply to lampshade9909

    Surely you should just be shoving pre here? You have 10M so about 13-15 bbs depending on if antes are in and what size the tables are. I think I would just shove here. Unless you can enlighten me as to the blinds. Might be wrong if I miscalculated.
    Edited By: djdoodoo Jan 4th, 2012 at 07:39 PM
  3. kelmann333 kelmann333 is offline

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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 7:39pm) in reply to djdoodoo

    What are the blinds, antes, etc?
  4. lampshade9909 lampshade9909 is offline

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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 9:33pm) in reply to kelmann333

    I put the blinds in the origial post.

    I thought a key peice of information here was the fact that he insta3 bet. Would you factor that into the equation?
    Thread Starter
  5. MYBLUEDOG MYBLUEDOG is offline

    Greenville, MS
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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 9:37pm) in reply to lampshade9909

    400/800/80
  6. kelmann333 kelmann333 is offline

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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 9:44pm) in reply to MYBLUEDOG

    You are in that grey area with 20ish BB;so it's either shove or fold. With bubble looming, I'd shove. SB would need a monster to call.

    Now I've made it known many times that I can't stand AQ. In this same situation recently, I ran into AK and 88- lost both (I'm unlucky that way by nature).

    I'd put less weight on 'M' factor and more on BB status.
  7. razorpoker2002 razorpoker2002 is offline

    Owingsville, KY
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    Jan 4th, 2012 (1/4/2012 10:00pm) in reply to kelmann333

    First off I think the insta 3 bet means nothing. With your stack I like the raise instead of the shove. Only because you said you have raised from lp and stole a few pots. Meaning these guys are more apt to play back at you now. I'd insta ship it back in his face and wouldn't be surprised to see a fold. If he has a hand there's nothing you could of done. I'd be happy getting it in here.
     
  8. PeaceGotAces PeaceGotAces is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 5:04pm) in reply to razorpoker2002

    Please don't open shove. There's no way i'm r/f AQ in the CO to one guy.

    I think it's easier to use the amount of BB's rather than M when you're around 15BB+ imo. I think shoving an M of 8-10 s usually too big from MP/EP. Either R/F or R/C.

    But when you have like 20bb on the button it's going to be better to raise call something like ATo+, A8s+, KQo+ 66+. Hands like lower pairs than 66, small suited aces and broadways like KJ, QJ i'd just open shove.

    shove charts become more reliable (optimal) when you're 15bb and under. With a ~20bb stack open shoving big hands like Aj+ and big pairs is profitable but not optimal.
  9. Sweet866 Sweet866 is offline

    Brigg
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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 5:20pm) in reply to PeaceGotAces

    Raise folding not a option with the size of your stack, when raising that size stack u got to be raise calling or 4 bet shove. i think open shoving is way better than raise folding though.
  10. tyson219 tyson219 is offline Moderator

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 5:22pm) in reply to PeaceGotAces

     
    Originally Posted by PeaceGotAces View Post

    Please don't open shove. There's no way i'm r/f AQ in the CO to one guy.

    I think it's easier to use the amount of BB's rather than M when you're around 15BB+ imo. I think shoving an M of 8-10 s usually too big from MP/EP. Either R/F or R/C.

    But when you have like 20bb on the button it's going to be better to raise call something like ATo+, A8s+, KQo+ 66+. Hands like lower pairs than 66, small suited aces and broadways like KJ, QJ i'd just open shove.

    shove charts become more reliable (optimal) when you're 15bb and under. With a ~20bb stack open shoving big hands like Aj+ and big pairs is profitable but not optimal.

    ^^^

    Only note is that depending on the players in the blinds, you can also r/f KJ, QJ, baby pairs, etc. from late position. It all depends on how wide they are reshoving you. I personally don't like open shoving 18-22bbs in that spot and will either r/f those hands to certain players or r/c to others.
     969 
  11. double_kyan double_kyan is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 5:29pm) in reply to tyson219

    well with u stealing beforehand ,that insta 3b could also mean "fu dude take that" and thats when u pop him with the aq slamma jamma down his throat
     1
  12. PeaceGotAces PeaceGotAces is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 7:25pm) in reply to tyson219

     
    Originally Posted by tyson219 View Post

    ^^^

    Only note is that depending on the players in the blinds, you can also r/f KJ, QJ, baby pairs, etc. from late position. It all depends on how wide they are reshoving you. I personally don't like open shoving 18-22bbs in that spot and will either r/f those hands to certain players or r/c to others.

    Ya, you're right..(just talking about on the button btw, with effective stacks at 20bb). I did the math on this awhile ago but r/f KJo and QJo is going to be much better than shoving or r/c against someone shoving correctly/too tight. It's alot closer with like 17-18bb.Obviously you can shove a bit wider depending on the effective stacks and the opponent.

    I just remember the R/C cut offs are close to what i said, KQo, 66, ATo, A8s...maybe even a bit looser for the A's. But in the end it all depends on what the opponent is capable of..just a good starting point

    Never did any math for CO or anything, just tighten it up as you get further away.
  13. CJDeman CJDeman is offline

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    Jan 5th, 2012 (1/5/2012 9:56pm) in reply to PeaceGotAces

    Given the info that you have given - i.e. you have been stealing a lot in LP, he has been 3 betting a fair bit, and it is close to the bubble - this seems like a reasonably straightforward 4 bet shove.
     
  14. D_d_me_001 D_d_me_001 is offline

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    Jan 6th, 2012 (1/6/2012 3:11am) in reply to CJDeman

     
    Originally Posted by CJDeman View Post

    Given the info that you have given - i.e. you have been stealing a lot in LP, he has been 3 betting a fair bit, and it is close to the bubble - this seems like a reasonably straightforward 4 bet shove.

    I think this

    but if the small blind is a reasonable strong player then he knows he will be getting nearly 2:1 on a call of your shove so wont be folding very often.

    raise folding with a M < 10 (and especially 8) seems pretty weak (read, pos dependant etc.) but 3bet folding seems even worse to me.
    Edited By: D_d_me_001 Jan 6th, 2012 at 03:16 AM
  15. forty_as forty_as is offline

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    Jan 6th, 2012 (1/6/2012 3:12am) in reply to D_d_me_001

    Unless PLayer in the blind is really really nitty, it's a clear 4 bet shove.
  16. djdoodoo djdoodoo is offline

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    Jan 6th, 2012 (1/6/2012 3:22am) in reply to forty_as

     
    Originally Posted by forty_as View Post

    Unless PLayer in the blind is really really nitty, it's a clear 4 bet shove.


    This
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