Was watching a buddy of mine a few days ago in the $5.00 rebuy. I believe 1st was in the neighborhood of $9500.00 and there were about 60 left out of a field of roughly 3000.

He was kicking ass in the top 10 with a healthy 350,000 stack and picked up Kings on the button.

Blinds were 3K/6K and there was an EP raiser who popped it up to 24K and my buddy slammed in a re-raise to 95K

Well the big blind immediately shoved 500K

My buddy insta called and obv the guy had AA and that was it. He was out in 60th place for a whopping 100 bucks profit.

We had a long discussion about the hand and my thinking was that there is an argument for laying it down his Kings pre flop.

I mean what else could the guy possibly have but Aces here ?

He said 'there is no way I will ever lay down KK pre flop in a $5.00 tourney, but in my opinion when you are down to 60 with just under 10 grand on the line, it's not an auto call.

I mean when you are down to 60 in a starting field of over 3000, its safe to say that most of the donks are long gone.

Even if the guy shoving has AK or AQ (which I think is highly unlikely in this spot) he is still risking everything with a 30% chance of getting sucked out on.

I am convinced this is one situation where laying the hand down is correct. A fold here leaves him well over 200K at 3K/6K.

Naturally if the guy shoving is a short stack it's an auto call, but in hindsight it's my opinion the 3-better has Aces almost certainly. This can't possibly be a squeeze because the guy shoving barely has him covered.

I dunno maybe it's just me, but I would rather lay this down and look to keep on abusing the short stacks and chipping up with steals.

thoughts ?

To me, the EP raiser's line looks a lot like AK. Obviously reads would be helpful in determining ranges and style, and nobody wants to lose a huge stack, but unless the original raiser is a huge nit, you need to be getting it in here.

What line do you think the raiser would take with AK/AQ? How about QQ?

I'm not saying i wouldn't contemplate it for a minute, but as played I would call 100% of the time.

EDIT: Ok, apparently my reading comprehension has gone downhill. Not sure it makes it any less of a call that the bb shoved and not the EP raiser, and if anything, it looks more like a snapcall regardless of if the original raiser calls.

Folding is awful. Not only have you already stuck over 1/4 of your stack in the pot, making the pot odds hugely attractive, against QQ+ AK (which is probably his range here) you have over 50% in equity, which means you should be getting in there whatever the pot odds are. Saying you have 30% chance of getting sucked out on is just pessimism, you also have 70% of doubling up and you should be happy to put everything in there knowing you have that kind of equity. You are severely overestimating the ability of chipping up with steals. Never fold here no matter what the stakes are.

You never fold KK, you snap call, see AA and throw up on your keyboard. Heres the most important point that you fail to see OP - your saying that almost 10K is on the line right? Well, to have a shot at that 10K you need to win pots, and your not gonna get it in ahead every time, so if you want to win that 10k, this is one of those spots where your gonna have to get lucky at. Plus, ur opponent could easily have AK / QQ here, or the other 2 kings (unlikely). the bottom line is, when you have KK, theres only 1 hand that you are behind, so never fold that shit plz k thx

UGH.

The EP raiser 4 bet all in not 3 bet. Thats probably the same reason why you think you should fold KK pre flop ever.

I normally wouldn't fold here. $5 rebuy, I don't think you should assume the play is a ton better because players have chips at this level. A donk or 2 will get a big stack (simple math, 3,000 players, $5 game, mostly donks, some will get far and have chips). I call here everytime.

But, one thing scared me, even if he has AK, he has a 30% chance of being sucked out on. Well, is 30% that much more than 20%? So, what if he did this and flipped over 1010, is it a snap call? Or, would you fold because you don't want to risk it?

If this was a situation where 59th gets 6k and 60th gets $100, then I fold. But, first is a long way away, and you will need to chip up several times to even make the final table. This is too good to pass up.

I think the fact that it's a $5 tourney and the fact that it's a bigger stacks makes it even more of an insta-call. Everyone knows the bigger stacks in micro-MTT's are donks who jam AQ/AK/TT in spots like this. That's how they get the big stacks to begin with, getting it in with TT vs. AA and spiking it.

did u think he should fold as the hand was being played?

The logic about the 30% chance of losing is flawed--it's the worst part of the argument to fold, really. Let's say your opponent does in fact have a hand like AQ. Your friend has 255k to call here with about 475k in the pot. For simplicity, we'll say that your odds of winning are exactly 70%. So basically, you have two options:

1) Fold - you are left with 255,000
2) Call - 70% of the time you have 730,000, 30% of the time you have 0. So on average, you will end up with 730,000 x 0.7 = 511,000.

You can see here, that you on average literally have twice as many chips by calling as you have by folding. This is not insignificant. You're talking about playing for $9,500. If you want to have any chance at that top prize, you've gotta be willing to go for situations this obvious... Even if your opponent has AA 50% of the time, you're still way ahead in this situation. Considering the garbage I see people shove in these tournaments, AA is very very far from a guarantee here.

Another way to look at it: Let's say I offer you a coin flip where if you win I give you $3 but if I win you give me $1. Would you take my offer? I'm sure you would...

What if I offered you the same coin flip where if you win I pay you $30,000 but if I win you pay me $10,000? Maybe at this point you'd have to think about it. Can you really afford to pay me $10,000 if you lose? Maybe you can, maybe you can't; everyone has a different risk tolerance.

The point is, you should never be playing above your risk tolerance. If the thought of busting out is so painful that you can't take huge winning gambles, then you need to be playing something smaller.

 

Originally Posted by TheVillageGrinder

 

Originally Posted by B1GTOE

I mean when you are down to 60 in a starting field of over 3000, its safe to say that most of the donks are long gone.

thoughts ?

My thought is EL OH EL

ya...unreal stuff, these posts are depressing to read, cuz YOU KNOW they are serious about folding, so pathetic

 

Originally Posted by typohh

I remember a sunday millions final table where chip2 laid down KK preflop to chip1, the conditions where kinda similar, with the exception that there was one guy all-in which ensured that no sensible player was bluffing. If I remember correctly the action went like this...

UTG raised, UTG+1 reraised, short stack called all-in for almost the full amount, action back to UTG who reraised and UTG+1 laid down kings. UTG had AA.

As for your situation, I'll use a recent stars $5 rebuy for the calculations (I dont think any other site can get big enough field), with 68k prizepool 3618 players, 8.8k to winner. The average stack for 60 players left is 386k, tho the median may well be around 100k, especially in one table. Its rare that anyone would have 5x average stack this deep in low buyin tourney.

If hero folds, he is left with a 255k stack, that is worth $605.90

If her calls, and wins he ends up with a 733k stack, that is wirth $1518.44

That means, he has to win $605.90 / $1518.44 = 39% of the time. Against KK+,AKs range you are only 32.2% so you can fold, against any other range you have to call. I dont see a fold here bad, but I never critize anyone for getting all their chips in preflop with KK.

and there it is, would love to see a similar calculation for the thread "3 out of 16 in 4.40" which is a situation along similar lines in which i'm getting flamed for saying folding QQ is okay.

 

Originally Posted by Adam

The logic about the 30% chance of losing is flawed--it's the worst part of the argument to fold, really. Let's say your opponent does in fact have a hand like AQ. Your friend has 255k to call here with about 475k in the pot. For simplicity, we'll say that your odds of winning are exactly 70%. So basically, you have two options:

1) Fold - you are left with 255,000
2) Call - 70% of the time you have 730,000, 30% of the time you have 0. So on average, you will end up with 730,000 x 0.7 = 511,000.

You can see here, that you on average literally have twice as many chips by calling as you have by folding. This is not insignificant. You're talking about playing for $9,500. If you want to have any chance at that top prize, you've gotta be willing to go for situations this obvious... Even if your opponent has AA 50% of the time, you're still way ahead in this situation. Considering the garbage I see people shove in these tournaments, AA is very very far from a guarantee here.

Another way to look at it: Let's say I offer you a coin flip where if you win I give you $3 but if I win you give me $1. Would you take my offer? I'm sure you would...

What if I offered you the same coin flip where if you win I pay you $30,000 but if I win you pay me $10,000? Maybe at this point you'd have to think about it. Can you really afford to pay me $10,000 if you lose? Maybe you can, maybe you can't; everyone has a different risk tolerance.

The point is, you should never be playing above your risk tolerance. If the thought of busting out is so painful that you can't take huge winning gambles, then you need to be playing something smaller.

Your EV calculation is based on the player having A/Q or A/K.

Lets assume that his read is correct, and feels that the player shoving has AA.

Then the EV for calling is 18% * 730,000 = 131,400

Even if he estimates there is a 75% chance the raiser has aces,
the EV can be estimated to be:

75% X 18% X 730000 + 25% X 70% X 730,000 = 196,370 chips

Also, if he assumes he has an edge over most of the remaining players, then ideally he wants to chip up by playing small pots and hammering shorter stacks with steals.

In addition, Poker stars payout structure is ridiculously top weighted at this level, and he would leave himself within the top 1/4 of the remaining field well above average stack with a very difficult fold.

 

Originally Posted by trouble

His 3bet(which, other than the bet sizing being a little large seems pretty standard from late position) does not necessarily telegraph a huge pair.

The fact that the bb is out of position is meaningless as the hand will be all in preflop.

If you put in 95k/350K into the pot, and can get the rest in with KK, you do it.

As I said in my first post, without a significant read, you should always call of with KK when 30% of your stack is in the middle already.

exactly

IMO the player shoving from the BB has nothing less than A/A in this spot jamming 500K+ pre-flop into a monster re-raise.

Considering my friends stack was 350K in chips, he is the one 'telegraphing' a huge pair by reraising 30% of his stack..not villain.

Which is precisely why I can't see how villain can have anything less than A/A most of the time and justify making this fold.

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