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Is this a leak?

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  1. lanimilbus lanimilbus is offline

    Denver, CO
    United States

    Posts: 216
    Joined: Oct 06

    Jun 12th, 2010 (6/12/2010 1:14am)

    [SIZE=2]This is a 45 man tournament. I’m 6<SUP>th</SUP> in chips with 20 left. The original raiser has been short for a while and has not been jamming in excess. What gives me trouble here is the stack sizes. Original raiser raises 30% of his stack, which I read as strength and give him credit for a narrower range (99+, KQs+). So I think I am flipping against two overs at best, and possibly crushed by a bigger pair. My stack is 35 BB's, which is kind of a "tweener" for me. If I push to isolate and win, then I am up to almost 50 BB's and gain some ability to play post-flop, etc. But if I lose, I am down to almost 20 BB's and am basically in push/fold mode. Based mainly on the original raiser's raise, I folded. Is my thinking wrong here? (If the original raiser had pushed, I probably would have put him on a wider range and shoved to isolate him.)[/SIZE]

    [SIZE=2]Full Tilt Poker Game #21502023099: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (165830104), Table 4 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:11:10 ET - 2010/06/09[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 2: duhbledeez (6,625)[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 3: lanimilbus (4,182)[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 4: KKRYSTIANE (1,375)[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 5: Ferna134 (2,940)[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 6: Davenport35 (3,190[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 8: BecO EscurO (1,250)[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Seat 9: downapound (1,440)[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]KKRYSTIANE posts the small blind of 60[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Ferna134 posts the big blind of 120[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]The button is in seat #3[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]*** HOLE CARDS ***[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Dealt to lanimilbus [8d 8c][/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]Davenport35 folds[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]BecO EscurO folds[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]downapound raises to 420[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]duhbledeez folds[/SIZE]
    [SIZE=2]lanimilbus has 15 seconds left to act - ???[/SIZE]
    Edited By: lanimilbus Jun 12th, 2010 at 01:17 AM
  2. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jun 12th, 2010 (6/12/2010 3:51am) in reply to lanimilbus

    You could read the guy betting 30% of his stack as strength, because he knows he's committing himself so he'd only play a good hand like that.

    You could also read it as a guy who loves the "bet pot" button and knows fuck-all about bet sizing in tournament poker.

    "Flipping or being crushed" is a fair assessment. The structure in FTP's 45-mans gets hairy near the end, and I prefer to be the big stack to maintain some flexibility as long as possible. So I think re-raising to isolate and play a coin flip is the better decision (and if the guy is a bet-pot dope, it's reasonable to think your 3-bet has some fold equity). But depending on how you want to accumulate chips, folding and finding a more comfortable spot is OK too.
     
  3. giveakshun giveakshun is offline

    Posts: 152
    Joined: Jun 10

    Jun 14th, 2010 (6/14/2010 11:25pm) in reply to grapsfan

    with 35bbs im not looking to flip, or face a decision where im crushed or flipping for stacks, i think your position/stack is pretty marginal
    1.if you shove you still have plenty of people to act behind you that can have something more decent than ur holdings
    2.why not fold the small pair and wait for a better spot such as better steal opportunities ex:
    shoving the button/hijack or mp with j10/kq/k10/q10 my personal favorites
    35bb is considered a short stack, i wouldnt even think of playing a weak pair like this with my stack imo
    i could be completely off though.
    also villains raise pre is prolly a monster trying to look to get paid off
  4. grapsfan grapsfan is offline Head Curmudgeon

    Rosemount, MN
    United States

    Posts: 7,980
    Joined: Jun 05

    Jun 15th, 2010 (6/15/2010 2:53am) in reply to giveakshun

     
    Originally Posted by giveakshun View Post

    with 35bbs im not looking to flip, or face a decision where im crushed or flipping for stacks, i think your position/stack is pretty marginal
    1.if you shove you still have plenty of people to act behind you that can have something more decent than ur holdings
    2.why not fold the small pair and wait for a better spot such as better steal opportunities ex:
    shoving the button/hijack or mp with j10/kq/k10/q10 my personal favorites
    35bb is considered a short stack, i wouldnt even think of playing a weak pair like this with my stack imo
    i could be completely off though.
    also villains raise pre is prolly a monster trying to look to get paid off

    Why would you think his "bet pot" is a monster v. anything else in a $10 45-man? The guys who are looking to get fancy are limping or min-raising, more often than "bet pot".

    It's irrelevant what the OP's stack is when considering whether or not to re-raise...the raiser has a 12 BB effective stack, so that's all we're worrying about.
     
  5. dalix88 dalix88 is offline

    Leeds
    United Kingdom

    Posts: 339
    Joined: Apr 08

    Jun 15th, 2010 (6/15/2010 3:22am) in reply to grapsfan

    If you had any sort of fold equity here pushing may be +ev, however I don't think you have and you are comfortably behind his range. All of this adds up to a fold IMO.
    935 
  6. giveakshun giveakshun is offline

    Posts: 152
    Joined: Jun 10

    Jun 15th, 2010 (6/15/2010 8:10pm) in reply to grapsfan

     
    Originally Posted by grapsfan View Post

    Why would you think his "bet pot" is a monster v. anything else in a $10 45-man? The guys who are looking to get fancy are limping or min-raising, more often than "bet pot".

    It's irrelevant what the OP's stack is when considering whether or not to re-raise...the raiser has a 12 BB effective stack, so that's all we're worrying about.

    i dont know maybe because MORE OFTEN THAN NOT someone coming in for THAT BIG OF A RAISE in THAT EARLY POSITION
    question :is calling these 12bbs the correct play in the long run
    Edited By: giveakshun Jun 15th, 2010 at 08:13 PM
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